- Daily DFS – RAIN, Graveman
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Milone, Freese, Stubbs
- Factor Grid
1. Bankroll Management
I occasionally receive questions about how I manage my bankroll. When I started on FanDuel, I deposited $10, entered a $1 contest, and promptly won $700. I’ll make no bones about it, I got very lucky. Part of that win was a two home run day from Brad Miller. However, the result is that I’ve never really been forced to carefully manage my bankroll. As such, all of the below advice is hypothetical.
I’ve seen other sites recommend that you enter no more than one-fifth of your bankroll on a given day. These same sources seemingly encourage an aggressive approach to spending. I find that a few assumptions are made.
Apparently, most DFS players participate in cash games, double-ups, or similar formats. Before considering player skill, these games usually come with around a 45 percent chance to win money. The one-fifth rule of thumb makes some sense in these formats since a five day losing streak is unlikely. Remember, your entries will decline in size using this approach
Personally, I dislike cash games. I reserve my money for the big tournaments (GPPs). The typical win rate in a GPP is somewhere between 10 and 15 percent. Actually taking home a large prize is even rarer. It’s not uncommon to go 2 weeks without winning anything.
Your bankroll will have to weather an extended drought at some point during the season. As such, I recommend wagering no more than five percent of your money on a given day.
If you mix both types of contests, you should set a ceiling between five and 20 percent. Base it on your typical mix. I’m conservative with my money, so I tend to bet well under my self-imposed ceiling for the day.
2. Daily DFS – Rain, Graveman
Thin Thursday is back. To make matters worse, we have split contests today. Before reading on, skip ahead and familiarize yourself with section four. Only two games don’t have some amount of rain in the forecast. And they’re in different time slots! Consider taking a day off if you won’t be available to micro your lineup at the last minute.
Early: There are six games in the early contest, but you might want to fixate on a dry O.Co Coliseum. Ground ball specialist Kendall Graveman will face an iffy Rangers offense. Graveman will almost never be a viable DFS play because he has no strikeout ability. His entire repertoire is centered on an above average sinker.
In many ways, he’s Kyle Kendrick with more “sleeper” chatter than Kendrick’s accrued over an entire career. It’s the unique situation of today that makes him a viable play. The next safest game is in Houston.
Late: All three games will probably be played, but expect a steady rain in New York and Philadelphia. As such, you’ll want to skew towards the Giants vs. Padres game. It’s a shame, the expensive Blue Jays hitters against CC Sabathia is usually a great play.
3. Tomorrow’s Targets – Anderson, Milone, Freese, Stubbs
Pitchers to Start: Many will be tempted by breakout candidate Nathan Eovaldi. A start at Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox will be a great test of his skill. However, I don’t want any part of that. Instead, look to Brett Anderson in Arizona. When he’s healthy, he tends to limit the damage with Dallas Keuchel quality ground ball rates. Don’t count on strikeouts, but the other rate stats should fall into place.
Pitchers to Exploit: Soft-tossing lefty Tommy Milone has his work cut out for him at U.S. Cellular Field. The fly ball pitcher will have to survive a couple tough righty bats and a stadium that was tailor made to ruin pitchers like Milone.
Hitters (power): David Freese bats cleanup for the Angels, and he’s only seven percent owned in Yahoo leagues. With the platoon advantage against Jason Vargas, he should have a shot for power and run production.
Hitters (speed): Drew Stubbs is also a power threat. The dual action can prove quite useful, especially when the game is at Coors against Wood. Stubbs is a substitution risk late in the game. One of Corey Dickerson or Charlie Blackmon will probably be waiting in the wings for a big pinch hit.
4. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Just about every game will be affected by rain. Additionally, the Northeast games will have poor conditions for power. Even if they dodge a rainout, those contests aren’t good for DFS play.
The Link. Hopefully Houston can play because that game could be a fireworks show.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. If you’d like to sign up to play on FanDuel, this link kicks some of your rake back to me.
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