AL Starting Pitcher Disappointments: Better Days Ahead?

With a league ERA of just 3.88, the first time it has been below 4.00 since 1992, it is tough to find many disappointments so far on the season in the American League. Amazingly, there are no qualified pitches with an ERA between 5.00 and 6.00, however there is one pitcher with an ERA over 6.00. The three pitchers below were expected to post much better results than they have so far. Will any see better days ahead?

Fausto Carmona | 6.17 ERA

After posting an ERA of 6.32 in 2009 and 5.44 in 2008, which followed his breakout 2007 season, Carmona had a bounce back year in 2010, putting up a 3.77 ERA. Though he was a bit lucky given his 4.25 xFIP, it is unlikely that anyone expected yet another disaster for him this year. The odd thing is that from a peripherals perspective, he has actually been better in every single skills metric. The strikeout rate is nearly identical, but higher this year when going out to the second decimal place, the walk rate is his best since his breakout 2007, and his ground ball rate is as excellent as always, and a smidge higher than 2010. He is even inducing more swinging strikes and allowing a lower Contact% than last year. The difference is that hideously low 58% LOB% and the inflated 16% HR/FB ratio. His LD% of 14% suggests batters are not suddenly making great contact against him. This looks to be completely due to poor fortune and as such, makes him a nice acquisition target in AL-Only leagues.

Derek Holland | 4.69 ERA

After flying through the minors, Holland struggled during his first taste of the Majors in 2009. However, his 6.12 ERA was nearly two runs higher than his XFIP, and that mark was actually slightly better than league average. This year, he has induced more ground balls, putting his rate above the league average, while showing decent strikeout ability and control. That has resulted in a 3.84 xFIP, a bit better than league average. His fastball velocity is actually up 1.5 miles per hour from last year, which typically would be great news. Unfortunately that hasn’t helped his strikeout rate or moved his fastball run value into positive territory. His SwStk% has dropped this season, and has been below league average since he arrived in the Show, so near term he probably doesn’t have much strikeout rate upside. But even just maintaining his peripherals should lead to better results as his BABIP and HR/FB ratio come down a bit.

Max Scherzer | 4.61 ERA

Scherzer has gotten worse as the season has progressed, at least according to ERA, as it has risen each month. His xFIPs by month have been a little more consistent, but it does agree that June has been his worst so far. His strikeout rate has inexplicably fallen to just 5.7, but it looks like his velocity has actually slowly climbed since the beginning of the season. In fact, although his average velocity on the year is down from last season, his last start he averaged 92.9 MPH, compared to 93.1 last year. So that does not look to be a concern. His SwStk% is also right in line with last season, as is his Contact%. Aside from the inflated BABIP, the real difference between Scherzer this year and last is the extra fly balls this year. That increased FB% has led to an xFIP right at the league average. I do expect Scherzer’s ERA to improve as his luck turns around, but he is no ace, and the performance he enjoyed last year after being recalled gave fantasy owners some false hope for this year unfortunately.