How Much Did Lonnie Chisenhall Improve?

It figures. He’d entered the two seasons prior amid expectations that he’d emerge as his club’s regular third baseman, but he failed to lock down the position. Lonnie Chisenhall didn’t have a regular place to play for the Cleveland Indians in this past campaign, however, so, naturally, he produced early on and, thus, elbowed his way into the lineup. He finished with a .280/.343/.427 slash line and 13 bombs in 533 plate appearances.

Did Chisenhall truly experience a breakthrough? After a hot start to the 2014 season, his output declined pretty steadily. As a left-handed batter, he wouldn’t need much good fortune in order to exceed expectations. But he also made some gains which suggest that he began to establish a new baseline performance level. The magnitudes of those gains should be pretty telling.

Chisenhall’s campaign began strongly, and his playing time rose in kind. He accumulated 51 PAs in April; the number shot to 96 in May and 100 in June. His first couple of months were easily his best.

• Through June 11: .393/.438/.619, .226 ISO, .428 BABIP in 189 PA
• After June 11: .219/.292/.323, .103 ISO, .268 BABIP in 344 PA

That blazing beginning was enough to sustain his PT through the rest of the season, despite the fact that his production, at some point, didn’t warrant it. He tallied 100 PAs in July, 81 in August, and 105 in September.

Chisenhall doesn’t seem to have been doing much differently, at least, habitually, though. He remained aggressive (swing rate above 50%), with a chase rate at around 39%. His marks in both for the season placed him in the top 15 among qualifiers. Some hitters make those things work, of course, but they can also get him in trouble. His strikeout rate was 13.2% during the hot streak and 21.5% during the cold one – a difference, to be expected, like his jump from 7.7% swinging strikes to 9.1%.

Chisenhall has had a few problem areas as a major leaguer. A couple of significant ones, chronicled at It’s Pronounced Lajaway: his performance against left-handers and his ability to hit inside stuff. It’s not unexpected to see that his unusually good results against southpaws tailed off in 2014. It’s also not surprising to see that opponents pitched him inside a little more often in the cold stretch than they did in the hot one.

Chisenhall walked more often this season, it’s worth noting. Interestingly, his rate in the category jumped in the period after June 11, from 5.3% to 8.4%, so at least he found another way to reach base. Where he probably deserves most of his credit – for the entire campaign – is his significant improvements in walk rate and strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, in fact. He also posted the healthiest line-drive percentage (24.1%) of his career against them, aiding that jump to .294/.353/.376 in 121 PAs against lefties.

How reliable is Chisenhall’s performance against southpaws moving forward? As the IPL piece suggests, it’s shaky. The “batting eye” elements are encouraging, but in the end, a .369 BABIP helped to fuel marks that depended heavily on AVG to look good and belie a truly uninspiring .083 ISO against the handedness.

The third baseman hasn’t displayed noteworthy power against southpaws since his rookie exposure to them. All his samples against them are pretty small, to be fair. The Indians allowed him to face lefties more often in 2014 based on similarly impressive results early on, and the rest-of-season effect was a negative. His groundwork in the minors hints at some hope that he’d improve, but it’s not overwhelming. He remains a candidate to platoon without much greater strides, and he may not receive many more opportunities to make them.

A couple of other things are worth noting. Well, more than two, but IPL goes into the dip in power, which is disconcerting. How Chisenhall handled certain pitches may appear to offer some hope. He seemed to make no marked advancements against certain types of pitches from LHPs, granted. He struggled with all offerings, other than the curveball, in his first three years, although it’s worth noting a good ISO against sinkers then. Still, it’s hard to argue that his outcomes on other pitches in 2014 are anything but luck-driven, given the other data.

Chisenhall also experience struggles against righties in his career, though. Against fastballs, particularly four-seamers, from northpaws, the left-handed hitter had been truly disappointing in his three previous years. That seems like a good way to end up out of the league. This season against four-seam fastballs, he hit significantly better – not just in terms of AVG but also ISO, with an average on balls in play (.314) that doesn’t invite doubt. Perhaps he finally learned to hit a big-league heater and, thus, keep a spot at the big-boy table. The appearance of hope.

There is, however, a caveat – indeed, there has to be a caveat, given the up-then-down season he had. Chisenhall murdered four-seamers from RHPs during his hot stint and was terrible against them during his cold stint. It seems fair to assume that he saw a greater percentage of those fastballs inside. It seems that he’s developed quite a problem turning on pitches inside, as other factors have suggested and with which this would align. If hard stuff inside continues to be more than he can handle, then it’s hard to see the player remaining a regular.

The other small note for the hopeful side, at least. Usage and outcomes against him overall, including his whiff, swing, and whiffs-per-swing rates, appear not to have changed much this past year. His increased walk rate coupled with the lack of changes in those figures makes one wonder if he’s at least improved his pitch identification and willingness to take a little more often. If so, then there’s obviously a nice positive to take from this past season.

This was a good year for Chisenhall, one from which Cleveland surely took some inspiration. How great of an effect will something like his potentially improved pitch ID skills, particularly against LHPs, have on his performance, though? Are we talking major strides? It doesn’t appear so, judging from other areas examined. It’s not like he began to take the ball the other way or up the middle better, with more authority, to compensate for a serious drop in pull power.

Chisenhall, 26, still looks like a flawed player who may need to figure out a lot more in a hurry if he’s to remain part of his team’s plans. His defense, while better than Carlos Santana’s at the hot corner, still isn’t good. His 2014 line has almost certainly earned him at least the good side of a platoon with someone like Zach Walters to begin the 2015 season. Maybe there’s more to his results from this past season. His 2015 Steamer projection (.264/.320/.429, 15 HR, and .165 ISO in 461 PA) seems doable but a little ambitious in the power department, to me, especially if the book – hammer him inside – isn’t a secret anymore.

This organization, with a statistically savvy front office likely conscious of how bad its parent club’s defense has become, could peddle Chisenhall to a club who might believe that he’s advanced significantly. If they don’t, then it’s likely that the hitter will have to prove himself all over again next year, because they’ll have alternatives sooner than later.