ADP Draft: Rounds Five to Eight

After setting up the parameters in my last article and running through the first four rounds of the draft, it’s time for another four rounds of pitting the various ADP systems against each other.

I might as well dive in and here are the picks.

 

The first difference I immediately noticed was the pitcher/hitter split between the different sites. I combined each site’s picks from the results so far.

The overall split seems perfectly fine at his point in the draft, but RTS (Real Time Sports) and Fantrax have more than 50% of their roster consisting of pitchers.  So what does it mean? I’m not sure of every possible implication but each situation could get even more extreme as the draft season starts back up. If pitching is going earlier than expected, an owner might reach for pitching thereby pushing pitchers even further up draft boards.

Another reason to understand the split is if someone is regressing their projections to the market like RotoWire’s Chris Liss discusses in these two articles. Different ADP’s will yield different valuations with a hitter-pitcher split that is not desirable by the drafter.

Another study can be done comparing a site’s ADP to how the website initially ranked their player. It’s possible the evaluation system that Fantrax uses has a 50/50 pitcher-hitter split while ESPN might be at 75/25. A weighting of the “Average Team” and the site’s rankings should show the amount of bias.

Round 5

• ESPN is pushing up Josh Bell quite a bit with their 47 ADP and the other sites have him between 71 ADP to 94 ADP. As shown above, ESPN is a more hitter heavy so the jump may be an artifact from that push. Also, Bell was having an amazing first half (1.024 OPS) but his production dropped down to a .780 OPS in the second half. Maybe some owners blocked out the drop.
• The other pick that was out of place was Jorge Soler who CBS has at a 63 ADP (others from 77 to 94). I can sort of see why he got pushed up but I’d go with Eugenio Suarez who has shown the same power for more than Soler’s good two months (20 HR from August to September).

Round 6

• ESPN shows their bias towards hitters with a 59 ADP for Marcell Ozuna (91 ADP to 109 ADP for rest). I believe Ozuna’s skillset belongs in the first six rounds but since no single skill sticks out (e.g. Jorge Soler), he gets passed over. I think I’ve drafted him on every team I have this season.

Round 7

• Fantrax’s love pitching shows up with Mike Soroka (72 ADP, 85 ADP to 104 ADP for the rest) and Frankie Montas (79 ADP, 96 ADP to 128 ADP for the rest). Both are two to three round jumps compared to the other systems. Looking over the remaining pitching, the “jump” isn’t egregious (IMO) over the remaining pitchers, they are just hoarding all the arms.
• The NFBC takes two unestablished hitters in Luis Robert (78 ADP, 90 ADP to 111 ADP for the rest) and Ramón Laureano (75 ADP, 100 ADP to 109 ADP for the rest) way before others were considering them. I wonder if there is just a lack of name recognition between the pair from the more casual sites.

Round 8

• Fantrax just keeps taking the pitchers by grabbing Jesus Luzardo (93 ADP, 106 ADP to 127 ADP for the others).
• Yahoo 1 grabs its third closer in Edwin Diaz after already getting Josh Hader and Roberto Ozuna. If other owners are relying on Yahoo’s ADP, don’t be surprised at all if closers go early than expected.
• ESPN jumps up Shohei Ohtani (83 ADP, 111 ADP to 150 ADP for the rest) way above the other systems. I can completely understand the jump in daily leagues. Also, ESPN may have had more later drafts when owners knew he’ll be able to start when the season begins.