Adds and Drops in the NFBC Main Event
I’m going to continue my analysis of NFBC Main Event drops, but this first week will be a one-off. The NFBC ran its first FAAB bids last night but not all the leagues have drafted (I have my final one tonight), so the adds and drops not have the normal diversity and depth. Some of the information is still useful. With the limited number of teams and with the drafts so close to the season’s will dive into some of the players on the move (minimum three moves).
Note: I use the NFBC Main Event movement because it’s a decent number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1700 per team.
Adds
| Name | Max | Avg | Min | Cnt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Bruce | $109 | $47 | $8 | 11 |
| Logan Allen | $152 | $43 | $5 | 9 |
| Adbert Alzolay | $95 | $39 | $3 | 7 |
| David Bote | $51 | $26 | $6 | 7 |
| Daulton Jefferies | $265 | $89 | $38 | 6 |
| Taylor Trammell | $72 | $52 | $30 | 6 |
| Casey Mize | $222 | $58 | $1 | 5 |
| Chad Green | $13 | $7 | $1 | 5 |
| Daniel Ponce de Leon | $23 | $12 | $3 | 5 |
| Jose Trevino | $25 | $10 | $2 | 5 |
| JT Brubaker | $16 | $8 | $2 | 5 |
| Matt Bush | $67 | $36 | $1 | 5 |
| Rafael Dolis | $28 | $18 | $6 | 5 |
| Victor Caratini | $5 | $2 | $1 | 5 |
| Akil Baddoo | $52 | $22 | $7 | 4 |
| Austin Barnes | $3 | $2 | $1 | 4 |
| Chris Flexen 플렉센 | $8 | $5 | $2 | 4 |
| Colin Moran | $6 | $5 | $3 | 4 |
| Mitch Moreland | $26 | $12 | $5 | 4 |
| Adrian Houser | $8 | $7 | $7 | 3 |
| Brent Suter | $40 | $14 | $1 | 3 |
| Donovan Solano | $39 | $20 | $1 | 3 |
| Enoli Paredes | $4 | $3 | $3 | 3 |
| Evan Longoria | $15 | $9 | $3 | 3 |
| Freddy Galvis | $6 | $4 | $1 | 3 |
| Jazz Chisholm | $193 | $174 | $139 | 3 |
| Keone Kela | $9 | $7 | $6 | 3 |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | $18 | $8 | $3 | 3 |
| Nate Lowe | $38 | $17 | $2 | 3 |
| Nick Pivetta | $18 | $9 | $3 | 3 |
| Willy Adames | $37 | $29 | $13 | 3 |
• Jay Bruce (+11): With Luke Voit out at least a month, Bruce will be the Yankees first baseman. I’m not sold on Bruce being a good hitter (projected .763 OPS) and Miguel Andújar, when healthy, could fill the Voit void with a little infield reshuffling.
• Daulton Jefferies (+6): I think I’m a little slow at getting on the Daulton Jefferies Train. He was great in 2019 while in the minors (>10 K/9, < 1.0 BB/9) and dominated in his few Spring Training innings (18 IP, 24 K, 1.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP). And with Mike Fiers hurt, he has a rotation spot, so speculate away.
• Taylor Trammell (+6): Trammell won the left-field job in Seattle, but there is a decent chance he’s not a good hitter. While he does have a 1.026 OPS in Spring Training, projections have him hitting around a below-replacement level .630 OPS. The lure of Trammell is his potential 20-20 home runs and stolen bases. While Trammell loves to run, he’s hasn’t been great at it. In AA, he was 20 or 28 (71%) and two for three this spring.
• Chad Green (+5): Will fill in for Aroldis Chapman while Chapman finishes his suspension from last season.
• Casey Mize (+5): The highly touted prospect is part of the Tigers rotation.
• Daniel Ponce de Leon (+5): Reasonable two-step in the first full week (at MIA, vs MLW).
• Jose Trevino (+5): With four games this week, it looks like Trevino is this week’s streaming catcher option.
• JT Brubaker (+5): He’s a replacement-level starter on a bad team. He looks to have a two-step in the first full week (at CIN, vs CHC).
• Rafael Dolis (+5): Backup closer in Toronto.
• Victor Caritini (+5): With Austin Nola banged up, Caritini should see quite a bit of playing time.
• Matt Bush (+5): Possible closer in Texas with Jose LeClerc hurt.
• Enoli Paredes (+3): I’m missing something on why he’s being added. Maybe people are just handcuffing Pressly.
• Jazz Chisholm (+3, $174): I get some Lewis Brinson vibes with Chisholm. A ton of hype ($174 avg bid) and could be unplayable in a couple of weeks like he was last season (.563 OPS in 62 PA). He’s been better in Spring Training with a .821 OPS. but it’s tough to get too excited about a hitter with a projected .200 AVG. In the Main Events that drafted yesterday, he had a 313 ADP going around middle infielders like Isiah Kiner-Falefa (311) and Cesar Hernandez (322). Owners were dropping an eighth of their FAAB for a 23 round pick.
Drops
| Name | Drops |
|---|---|
| Alec Mills | 11 |
| Cal Quantrill | 8 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 7 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 7 |
| Nick Anderson | 7 |
| Scott Kingery | 7 |
| Kirby Yates | 6 |
| Matt Moore | 6 |
| Nico Hoerner | 6 |
| Spencer Turnbull | 6 |
| David Bednar | 5 |
| Harrison Bader | 5 |
| Josh Lindblom 린드블럼 | 5 |
| Danny Duffy | 4 |
| Deivi Garcia | 4 |
| Jose Leclerc | 4 |
| Trevor May | 4 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 3 |
| Bradley Zimmer | 3 |
| Brent Suter | 3 |
| Colin Moran | 3 |
| Daulton Varsho | 3 |
| Francisco Mejia | 3 |
| Jake Diekman | 3 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 3 |
| Merrill Kelly | 3 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 3 |
| Odubel Herrera | 3 |
| Oscar Mercado | 3 |
| Renato Nunez | 3 |
| Spencer Howard | 3 |
| Stephen Piscotty | 3 |
| Yasiel Puig | 3 |
• Eloy Jimenez (-7): It’s impossible to hold onto a hitter for the chance he’ll be useful for a month.
• Nick Anderson (-7): Out for at least three months.
• Michael Lorenzen (-7): The transition to being a starter is not going smoothly (1.83 WHIP, 9.39 ERA). And he has a shoulder injury. Gamble elsewhere.
• Scott Kingery (-7): Demoted to the minors.
• Kirby Yates (-6): Out for the season.
• Matt Moore (-6): This is a drop I don’t totally understand. There must have been a reason the six teams added him, but nothing points to why the drop. I’m guessing it was his last start where he allowed five runs in 3.2 IP. What were fantasy managers expecting?
• Spencer Turnbull (-6): I struggled myself on holding or dropping him. Right now he’s supposed to miss a few weeks as he ramps up after getting COVID. If fantasy manager has the room to hold him take the chance, but otherwise, he’s a cut.
• David Bednar (-5): I’m a little embarrassed about this player. I have no idea what position he plays and for what team. Guessing reliever for the Giants. Checks. Close … Pirates reliever. So why did five teams find it necessary to draft him? After rooting around on the internet, it seems like people are in love with his splitter that had a 20% SwStr% in but in fewer than 100 pitches.
• Josh Lindblom (-5): Not in the rotation anymore.
• Harrison Bader (-5): Headed to the IL.
Combos
• Logan Allen (+9) and Cal Quantrill (-8): Simple… Allen is in the starting rotation and Quantrill is not.
• Adbert Alzolay (+8) and Alec Mills (-11): Alzolay was given a rotation spot with Mills now in the bullpen.
• David Bote (+7) and Nico Horner (-6): Initially, I was off on both as I thought there might be a platoon, but Bote gets the job. It depends on the format for Bote’s relevance. Steamer600 has him at 20 HR, 8 SB, .238 AVG (.325 OBP). Bote is a fine option depending on a league’s depth, but he could be a drag on a team’s AVG.
• Colin Moran (+3, -4): I think we just found our replacement-level first baseman for the season. Moran should be on the upswing with Todd Frazier no longer in the Pirates first base mix.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Nice write up. Love these.
Thanks for this info! Sogard will also play some 2B for the Cubbies most likely. And Bednar could maybe close if R Rodriguez is traded. The Jefferies spring highlights are nice. Big fan of Chisholm … hopefully he can keep the K rate reasonably in check.
Paredes got picked up because Pressly vanished for 2+ weeks. Just seemed odd that he never pitched and there were never any updates on him. Finished the Spring with 2 IP plus a couple ‘B’ game appearances. Is Pressly okay?
Thanks this is a great weekly addition now
Bednar has had an insanely good spring and RichRod sucks, no idea why he would be dropped if your bought in to start with.
I’m excited for Jefferies. He’s a player at the exact level of development most impacted by Covid. Where would his stock be heading into 2021 if we’d gotten a full season’s look at him? A lot of Double-A types will probably “come out of nowhere” this year to make a difference at the big league level and in fantasy this season. They’re growth didn’t stop in ’20 even though scouting reports and stat pages did.
Bednar drafted and should be kept because Rich Rodriguez is not going to be the closer for more than a couple of weeks. Meanwhile, Bednar is throwing 100 mph, has a filth split, and a curveball that I have yet to see any batter put in play. He will be closing by early May. Oh, and this spring? 8.2 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 1 BB, 18 (!) K’s.
Also, for very, very deep leagues (the only ones that are of any interest, IMO), Adrian Houser was dealing at 94-96 mph in his last start, will be the #3 starter for Brewers. So managers in 20 or 30 team leagues, get busy.
ty Jeff
Surprised Ian Kennedy was not in same range as Bush? Who closes in Texas?
Don’t sleep on Bednar – RichRod, 5 career SVs, Bednar, pumping high 90s cheddar biscuits this spring and missing all the bats. Ok, most of the bats.
18 K’s in 8.2 IP – agree he is missing darn near all the bats, and not due to some weird delivery and deception. He is throwing 98 mph up in the zone, a curve that freezes guys, and then a split against lefties running down and away.