Addison Russell Surprises and Disappoints

Heading into the season, Addison Russell was ranked as the Cubs’ second best prospect and third best prospect in baseball. After finishing last year at the Double-A level, he figured to open the year at Triple-A and remain there for the majority, if not all, of the 2015 season. But that didn’t happen.

After recording just 46 plate appearances at Triple-A, Russell was summoned to make his Major League debut just four days after uber prospect Kris Bryant arrived in Chicago. While we assumed that Russell would get a September cup of coffee and perhaps the most aggressive of guesses pegged him coming up at some point over the summer, I’m assuming that absolutely no one expected him to be recalled as early as he was. He had just turned 21 a couple of months earlier and his entire Triple-A experience comprised of just 59 total plate appearances.

At Double-A in 2014, Russell displayed excellent power, while making above average contact. A measly 4.4% walk rate was a slight concern, but plate discipline improves with age, so it was too early to really worry about. Interestingly, his walk rate with the Cubs was actually one of the pleasant surprises. He posted a rate almost double what he posted at Double-A, reminding us of the patience he showed back at High-A in 2013 (12.1% BB%).

Unfortunately, the increased patience resulted in far too many strikeouts. His SwStk% of 13.7% wasn’t outrageously high, especially for a 21 year-old with little Triple-A experience, but it was unacceptable for someone who showed just modest power and walked at just about a league average clip. His discipline metrics actually weren’t alarming though. His O-Swing% was right at league average, while he swung a bit more at pitches inside the strike zone. Sounds okay to me.

The issue he faced was making contact with those pitches outside the zone. He posted the fourth lowest O-Contact% among all qualified hitters and was surrounded by names that strike out very frequently. But Russell’s Z-Contact% was the highest of that bunch, suggesting improvement next year.

Russell posted a .147 ISO, which was roughly league average, but respectable coming from the shortstop position. His batted ball distance was also respectable given his age and position, and came in around 280 feet, which is just above the league average. But there are good signs moving forward for his power. He hit fly balls at a 40% clip and he pulled over 40% of his batted balls. Neither of those numbers are good for BABIP, but they certainly are for power. With just about a league average HR/FB rate, there is ample room for a surge as he reaches his power prime.

Speaking of BABIP, his batted ball profile doesn’t appear to support a .324 mark. His line drive rate was below average, he hit far too many pop-ups and he hit fly balls at a greater than league average rate. I would bet on regression next year unless he tilts that distribution in a more BABIP-friendly direction.

So was Russell really a disappointment in his MLB debut? If you knew he would be up just two and a half weeks into the season and then learned that he would still rank just 19th among shortstops in total fantasy value for the season, I think you would consider that somewhat disappointing. Part of that though was something he had little control over and is going to be a question mark until spring training rolls around.

That question is his spot in the batting order. About 84% of Russell’s at-bats came from the nine hole directly following the pitcher. That drastically reduced his plate appearances, dragging down his counting stats and reducing his opportunities to drive in runners since the man directly in front of him would rarely be on base.

As the roster is currently constructed, Roster Resource is projecting Russell to open the year in the leadoff slot. Obviously, that would be a boon to Russell’s fantasy value. But the Cubs are unlikely to stick with him there unless he is able to improve upon his .307 OBP, something Steamer is not projecting him to do. Since manager Joe Maddon has already shown a willingness to hit Russell at the bottom of the lineup behind the pitcher, there is a wide range of possible outcomes for Russell next year. He’ll be an interesting player to invest in for sure.