A Week of Games At Coors Field

I love weeks like this, when the Rockies play a full seven game homestand at Coors Field. They are set to face the Marlins for four games, followed by the Orioles for three. Why am I so obsessed with taking advantage of long Coors Field homestands? Because it’s the most hitter friendly park in baseball!

That’s a lot of ones! While the park isn’t the best home run park in baseball, it’s still a good one, and all those additional balls in play due to the second lowest strikeout park factor means significantly more chances for balls to leap over the fence. So lots of balls in play, plus a high rate of those balls in play falling for hits, means I’m all over Rockies hitters, and perhaps some names visiting the park this week as well. Let’s discuss some of those that aren’t universally owned.

Rockies Hitters

Charlie Blackmon

Blah, you’re not really excited picking up Blackmon, which is likely an option for you as he’s not very widely owned. The good news here is that the Rockies are scheduled to face seven straight right-handed starters, which means that Blackmon won’t sit as part of the platoon he’s part of. Of course, rotations can change and it’s possible he gets lifted for a pinch hitter late in the game if a left-handed reliever is on the mound.

The power here is long gone and he isn’t much of a basestealer anymore. However, six of his eight home runs this year have come at home, and he’s hit .289 there, versus just .212 on the road. Oddly, all five of his steals have come on the road. There’s nothing exciting here, but if you’re in a deep mixed league, he makes for a reasonable pickup for the week.

Brendan Rodgers

Formerly ranked as the 31st best prospect in baseball with a 55 FV, Rodgers has dealt with injury and has been a disappointment offensively when he’s been on the field. His power has been mediocre and he finally swiped his first career base this year. So he’s definitely not someone you want to be playing during a week of road games.

However, his home performance makes him a must start in most league formats and sizes. He has hit .333 at home, versus just .224 on the road, with six of his 10 home runs. His home wOBA is more than 100 points higher than on the road (.376 vs .262), which is as stark a split as you might find! He walks more at home and has struck out significantly less, while his BABIP has sat just over 100 points higher. So he’s essentially an all-star at home and a minor leaguer on the road.

One major issue holding back his power is his extreme ground ball ways. His FB% has stood below 30% every single year of his career and it’s currently at a career low right now at just 24.4%. That’s not how to take advantage of Coors Field! It certainly helps his BABIP though. With a maxEV consistently over 110 MPH and HardHit% over 40%, it’s pretty clear he actually owns pretty good power. If he ever learned to lift the ball more consistently, he’d be a 20-homer guy easily.

Jake Cave

It totally baffles me that the last place Rockies have made the 31-year-old Jake Cave a starter on the strong side of a platoon, with prospect Jordan Beck on the short side. Cave isn’t part of the team’s future, but Beck might be, so I can’t think of any reason for this arrangement to exist, let alone continue. And yet, here we are, so might as well play your cards the way the Rockies have dealt them.

As mentioned in the Blackmon blurb, the Rockies are set to face all right-handed starters, which means that if nothing changes, Cave would start all week. Though his maxEV and Barrel% are weak, he’s managed a mid-teen HR/FB rate, which is actually just below his career average. However, he suffers the same issue as Rodgers in that his FB% is in the mid-20% range, limiting his home run upside.

Unlike Rodgers, Cave hasn’t benefited from Coors as much as you might expect. His .325 wOBA there is certainly better than his .295 road mark, but still not anything to get excited about. He has also hit just one additional home run at home, so just based on his splits so far, he doesn’t appear to be a guy you only play at Coors and then sit. That said, I trust the park factors and over a larger sample size, would expect the performance disparity to widen.

Like Blackmon, starting Cave is far from exciting, but makes sense in a deeper league, especially if trying to find an injury replacement. Just be aware he could get pinch hit for late.

Drew Romo

Romo has become the team’s starting catcher after they surprisingly released former starter Elias Díaz. The 22-year-old is no top prospect, but did post a strong .362 wOBA at Triple-A this year. That was driven by a 14.6% HR/FB rate and .201 ISO and he even managed a .331 BABIP, thanks to a strong 24.9% LD% and low pop-up rate.

As a switch-hitter, there’s less of a chance he’s pinch hit for later in games, as that decision would be a result of simply getting a better hitter to the plate, rather than anything due to handedness. If you need a catcher in a deep league, he seems like an excellent pickup for the week.

Marlins

Jesús Sánchez

With big maxEV marks, a second straight double digit Barrel%, and a HardHit% over 50% this year, it surely looks like Sánchez should be in the midst of a big breakout season. Alas, his wOBA is down to just .303 and his ISO sits at a career low of just .171. His xwOBA suggests he’s been quite unlucky, which means he’s the ideal pickup for a series at Coors Field.

As is the issue for several Rockies mentioned above, Sánchez also struggles to hit fly balls. For someone with this much power, he really should be hitting a higher rate of flies than he has. That caps his power and he’s not exactly the speed demon to beat out a lot of ground balls for hits. Heck, all those grounders haven’t helped his BABIP, which sits right around the league average.

While his power output has moved in the wrong direction, at least he has swiped a career high nine bases. That’s more than double the number of steals he had recorded over his entire career heading into the season!

Overall, with a lowish batting average and massive power, this is the type of guy you’d think would be perfect at Coors Field as the strikeouts are suppressed, the balls in play fall in for hits, and his big Barrel% results in more home runs. Just be aware that the team is slated to face a number of lefties this week, as the last place Marlins just can’t bear to keep him in the lineup against such pitchers, in order to give future star David Hensley the chance to start.

Jonah Bride

The former Athletics prospect suddenly finds himself an everyday player on the Marlins, and batting in the middle of the lineup to boot. He has somehow managed solid HR/FB rates between Triple-A and the Marlins this year, despite weak maxEV and HardHit% marks, along with a low MLB Barrel%. I’m skeptical that home run power lasts unless he starts barreling the ball more. However, he’s done it so far thanks to a high pulled fly ball rate, which has worked for other hitters, but just seems more difficult to sustain than if he simply had the raw power to begin with.

He has shown strong plate discipline, actually walking more than he struck out while at Triple-A and although those rates haven’t been maintained with the Marlins, they remain pretty good, while his SwStk% sits in the mid-single digits, which is fantastic.

He doesn’t steal bases, so he’s strictly a power hopeful with a decent batting average. Luckily Coors Field could help with both of those, making him a deep league pickup for the week.

Connor Norby

I just wrote about Norby last week as I was suspicious about his power output given weak maxEV marks. Sure enough, he has now homered two games in a row for the Marlins, as he has posted an above average pulled fly ball rate, though not quite as high as Bride.

The one walk to 17 strikeouts clearly needs work, and I’m still skeptical the power continues given weak underlying Statcast metrics. However, given a four game series at Coors where he should hit every day in the middle of the Marlins lineup, now’s a good time to consider picking him up, even in shallower leagues.

I still wouldn’t want to be starting him at home in shallow leagues after this week, but perhaps he’ll continue to surprise with his power output despite a lack of raw strength.

Kyle Stowers

If you need power, Stowers might be your man this week. But like the caveat I mentioned when discussing Sánchez above, the team is scheduled to face a number of lefties, meaning the left-handed Stowers might be on the bench to start a bunch of games this week.

He has posted HR/FB rates over 20% nearly everywhere he’s played in the minors, and they have come with maxEV marks over 110 MPH. So his power looks legit. Oddly, he sports a maxEV of 109.7 MPH and strong Barrel% of 13.1% in the Majors this year, but it’s resulted in just a 4.5% HR/FB rate, which seems really hard to do!

Strikeouts have been a major issue, so a visit to Coors might be the perfect antidote here. The high strikeout, big power guy is exactly who you want to speculate on for this series.