MASH Report (7/8/13)
Today, I will examine five pitchers who came off the DL this past week and give a top 30 ranking for HURT and PAIN.
• Yesterday, Joakim Soria made his 2013 debut after his 2nd Tommy John Surgery. He came out only throwing fastballs with an average velocity of 90.2 mph.
This speed is about 1.5 mph less than his MLB average fastball velocity. Besides the drop in speed, the fact he didn’t throw a single other pitch type worries me a bit. He was at his best when he was able to mix up pitches and keep batters on their heels. I am not buying in yet. I want to see a little more production from him.
• A.J. Burnett’s fastball velocity is inline with values from this and previous seasons.
• Chad Gaudin’s velocity was down a tick, but was inline with the velocity from his other starts vice his relief appearances.
Don’t fall for the low ERA (2.44) and expect some regression as his BABIP inches higher from its current .261 level.
• Anibal Sanchez had his highest average fastball velocity game when compared to any other one over the past 3 seasons.
Sanchez’s inconsistent release points is another main issue I have with him. He has been all over the place this season.
Besides being all over the place, he is now releasing closer to the middle of the rubber than he ever did previously.
It would be nice for him to quit search for a new position and stick with one.
• Mike Pelfrey’s velocity looks great (like you care).
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (no min PA in 2013 and at least 400 PA from 2010 to 2012):
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
| Rank | Name | HURT | PA (2013) | PA (2010 to 2012) |
| 1 | B.J. Upton | 187.2 | 303 | 1883 |
| 2 | Nolan Reimold | 162.0 | 124 | 505 |
| 3 | Albert Pujols | 158.4 | 387 | 2021 |
| 4 | Seth Smith | 158.4 | 292 | 1372 |
| 5 | Endy Chavez | 133.2 | 231 | 443 |
| 6 | Alex Avila | 126.0 | 215 | 1318 |
| 7 | Aramis Ramirez | 121.2 | 209 | 1763 |
| 8 | Melky Cabrera | 121.2 | 335 | 1716 |
| 9 | Jason Kubel | 117.6 | 196 | 1554 |
| 10 | Jimmy Rollins | 115.2 | 374 | 1724 |
| 11 | Lance Berkman | 115.2 | 282 | 1165 |
| 12 | Miguel Montero | 112.8 | 329 | 1457 |
| 13 | Chris Iannetta | 110.4 | 242 | 902 |
| 14 | Matt Kemp | 108.0 | 246 | 1806 |
| 15 | Giancarlo Stanton | 103.2 | 195 | 1498 |
| 16 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 102.0 | 265 | 864 |
| 17 | Robert Andino | 100.8 | 85 | 1008 |
| 18 | Justin Turner | 100.8 | 102 | 690 |
| 19 | Chris Johnson | 99.6 | 259 | 1295 |
| 20 | Dustin Ackley | 99.6 | 200 | 1044 |
| 21 | Mark Teixeira | 99.6 | 63 | 1920 |
| 22 | Ike Davis | 97.2 | 218 | 1334 |
| 23 | Kevin Youkilis | 96.0 | 118 | 1461 |
| 24 | Andres Torres | 94.8 | 225 | 1402 |
| 25 | Ty Wigginton | 92.4 | 63 | 1455 |
| 26 | Cesar Izturis | 92.4 | 87 | 719 |
| 27 | Brandon Inge | 91.2 | 105 | 1214 |
| 28 | Jason Heyward | 90.0 | 272 | 1730 |
| 29 | Brandon Phillips | 90.0 | 357 | 1985 |
| 30 | Tyler Colvin | 87.6 | 71 | 1069 |
• Brandon Phillips showing up at the bottom of the HURT ranking surprised me a bit. A quick Google search turned up a major HBP on June 1st. So on and before June 1st, Phillips was hitting .291/.340/.476. Since then, he is hitting .200/.254/.286. His ISO by month is:
Mar/Apr: .164
May: .214
June: .070
July: .136
At least his July ISO is higher than June’s. To see if he is over the HBP, I would need to see his ISO continue to inch up.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (no minimums for 2012 and 2013)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
| Rank | Name | PAIN | IP (2013) | IP (2012) |
| 1 | Jason Marquis | 228.4 | 107.0 | 127.2 |
| 2 | Jeff Locke | 218.7 | 102.0 | 34.1 |
| 3 | Jared Hughes | 213.1 | 16.1 | 75.2 |
| 4 | Lucas Harrell | 184.7 | 103.2 | 193.2 |
| 5 | Jonathan Broxton | 158.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 |
| 6 | Cory Gearrin | 154.9 | 31.0 | 20.0 |
| 7 | Alexi Ogando | 146.0 | 55.1 | 66.0 |
| 8 | Tanner Scheppers | 144.0 | 43.0 | 32.1 |
| 9 | Esmil Rogers | 139.5 | 65.2 | 78.2 |
| 10 | Javier Lopez | 138.7 | 20.2 | 36.0 |
| 11 | Chris Resop | 137.0 | 18.0 | 73.2 |
| 12 | Matt Moore | 129.9 | 100.0 | 177.1 |
| 13 | Wily Peralta | 122.5 | 97.1 | 29.0 |
| 14 | Santiago Casilla | 121.0 | 19.0 | 63.1 |
| 15 | John Axford | 105.2 | 37.0 | 69.1 |
| 16 | Luis Mendoza | 102.9 | 81.1 | 166.0 |
| 17 | Matt Harrison | 102.4 | 10.2 | 213.1 |
| 18 | Francisco Liriano | 100.0 | 69.2 | 156.2 |
| 19 | Mark Lowe | 99.4 | 11.2 | 39.1 |
| 20 | Franklin Morales | 91.1 | 12.1 | 76.1 |
| 21 | Scott Feldman | 87.3 | 97.0 | 123.2 |
| 22 | Craig Stammen | 85.5 | 46.2 | 88.1 |
| 23 | Felix Hernandez | 85.3 | 123.2 | 232.0 |
| 24 | Brett Myers | 80.9 | 21.1 | 65.1 |
| 25 | Jake Westbrook | 80.0 | 68.0 | 174.2 |
| 26 | Carlos Villanueva | 79.9 | 74.1 | 125.1 |
| 27 | Ryan Dempster | 77.4 | 107.0 | 173.0 |
| 28 | Paco Rodriguez | 77.1 | 30.2 | 6.2 |
| 29 | Michael Bowden | 76.7 | 16.2 | 39.2 |
| 30 | Barry Enright | 74.8 | 8.1 | 3.2 |
• Wily Peralta last start was skipped because of a pulled hamstring. A hamstring is not the arm injuries I look for with PAIN. He does have some classic arm injury signs. First, a lower velocity.
Next, a low Zone% (42.5%) which is lower than his 2012 value of 44.9%. Additionally, he is taking an extra 1.5 secs longer between pitches. Finally, he has been trying to find a consistent horizontal release point over the course of the season (1.5 ft difference).
Maybe the hamstring injury will give Peralta a chance to rest the injury which may be ailing his arm.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I saw Soria at one of his rehab outings and he was throwing mostly change-ups and his curve, which was still filthy.
Not sure why he didn’t use them yesterday, but I wouldn’t be too worried.
Thanks for the information. I just saw it as a little weird with him going with just the one pitch.
This has become my favorite Rotographs series. Solid investigation covering a wide range of players.
Thanks.
Hey Jeff, I am enjoying these reports more and more. Thanks!
BJ Upton… 🙁 So much for Shandler’s 40/40 upside call…
You’re welcome.
Shandler is having a humiliating year
Is Trevor Rosenthal lurking on the PAIN index? Anecdotally he’s been given quite a heavy workload as the primary setup guy to Mujica. He had 109 minor leaguer starter innings, and then 22 major league relief innings last year so in total IP his current pace isn’t terrible. But does the stress of multiple outings per week weigh in your calculations?
He has not been able to throw a strike the last couple of games.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10745&position=P&type=16&gds=&gde=&season=2013
But otherwise he looks fine (velocity, release points).
Question about David Price. In the previous installation you said to expect lower performance from him because of the drop in velocity. Just curious how much of a drop in production you’re talking. Is the velocity the only problem you see? Because most of his advanced metrics are pretty much in line with his career numbers. Do you think he’ll struggle to keep his ERA below 4.00, or do you just mean he can maintain a mid-low 3’s ERA ROS, just with a drop in K% or something?
I am an owner and wondering if he’s a clear sell high right now or not…
I would base the drop in production based on this article by Mike Fast:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/lose-a-tick-gain-a-tick/
Near the bottom, he found a 1 mph drop in velocity means a .25 increase in runs allowed. A 2 mph drop would mean a .5 increase.
So looking at his preseason projections:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P
His ERA looks to be near 3.00 (probably a little higher with FIP – Rays D keeping his ERA down). His ERA is probably closer to 3.5 now.
This number is inline with the ERA and FIP values for ZIPs and Steamer (updated): 3.64, 3.44, 3.77, 3.41
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#core
No: “Mainly it looks for fastball velocity drops and low, dropping Zone%’s from only the previous season. I have weighted in a bit on Pace (hurt pitchers take longer between pitches) and average fastball velocity (I have found harder throwers are more injury prone). I tried to add consistency of release points, but could not get it to work because too many pitchers have more than one release point. Finally, I am going to add in a measure of contact in the future and regress the values. ”
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/mash-report-61013-pain-pitcher-injury-finder/
As I try to read the chart ,every 30 seconds or so ,it clicks and jumps me back up toward the top .
I wish I had an answer. I don’t like using the MS app, but it is the only spreadsheet, which I know of, which will embed only portion of the whole thing. I use the arrow keys to get around if that helps.
I’ve had similar issues. Not sure what the solution is.
The way we interpret HURT values has to be informed by what we know about the player’s season. Did he just come on/off the disabled list? Was he hurt early in the season, but is performing better now? I’m not always sure what the ramifications are – it would be great to see you post more of your ideas on how to interpret these scores.
Cool stats though! If Fangraphs gets any more exposure on ESPN & the MLB network, teams may start DL’ing pitchers based on their PAIN scores.
The ideas behind the scores was to find players with skills related to injuries. A person would then need to look on their own to find out why. An easy way to see if I looked at them in detail, like I did with Phillips today, is to goto the player’s page. I will hopefully have a MASH report linked to it with some added information.