MASH Report (7/8/13)

Today, I will examine five pitchers who came off the DL this past week and give a top 30 ranking for HURT and PAIN.

• Yesterday, Joakim Soria made his 2013 debut after his 2nd Tommy John Surgery. He came out only throwing fastballs with an average velocity of 90.2 mph.

This speed is about 1.5 mph less than his MLB average fastball velocity. Besides the drop in speed, the fact he didn’t throw a single other pitch type worries me a bit. He was at his best when he was able to mix up pitches and keep batters on their heels. I am not buying in yet. I want to see a little more production from him.

• A.J. Burnett’s fastball velocity is inline with values from this and previous seasons.

• Chad Gaudin’s velocity was down a tick, but was inline with the velocity from his other starts vice his relief appearances.

Don’t fall for the low ERA (2.44) and expect some regression as his BABIP inches higher from its current .261 level.

• Anibal Sanchez had his highest average fastball velocity game when compared to any other one over the past 3 seasons.

Sanchez’s inconsistent release points is another main issue I have with him. He has been all over the place this season.

Besides being all over the place, he is now releasing closer to the middle of the rubber than he ever did previously.

It would be nice for him to quit search for a new position and stick with one.

• Mike Pelfrey’s velocity looks great (like you care).

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (no min PA in 2013 and at least 400 PA from 2010 to 2012):

Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.

Rank	Name	HURT	PA (2013)	PA (2010 to 2012)
1	B.J. Upton	187.2	303	1883
2	Nolan Reimold	162.0	124	505
3	Albert Pujols	158.4	387	2021
4	Seth Smith	158.4	292	1372
5	Endy Chavez	133.2	231	443
6	Alex Avila	126.0	215	1318
7	Aramis Ramirez	121.2	209	1763
8	Melky Cabrera	121.2	335	1716
9	Jason Kubel	117.6	196	1554
10	Jimmy Rollins	115.2	374	1724
11	Lance Berkman	115.2	282	1165
12	Miguel Montero	112.8	329	1457
13	Chris Iannetta	110.4	242	902
14	Matt Kemp	108.0	246	1806
15	Giancarlo Stanton	103.2	195	1498
16	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	102.0	265	864
17	Robert Andino	100.8	85	1008
18	Justin Turner	100.8	102	690
19	Chris Johnson	99.6	259	1295
20	Dustin Ackley	99.6	200	1044
21	Mark Teixeira	99.6	63	1920
22	Ike Davis	97.2	218	1334
23	Kevin Youkilis	96.0	118	1461
24	Andres Torres	94.8	225	1402
25	Ty Wigginton	92.4	63	1455
26	Cesar Izturis	92.4	87	719
27	Brandon Inge	91.2	105	1214
28	Jason Heyward	90.0	272	1730
29	Brandon Phillips	90.0	357	1985
30	Tyler Colvin	87.6	71	1069

• Brandon Phillips showing up at the bottom of the HURT ranking surprised me a bit. A quick Google search turned up a major HBP on June 1st. So on and before June 1st, Phillips was hitting .291/.340/.476. Since then, he is hitting .200/.254/.286. His ISO by month is:

Mar/Apr: .164
May: .214
June: .070
July: .136

At least his July ISO is higher than June’s. To see if he is over the HBP, I would need to see his ISO continue to inch up.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (no minimums for 2012 and 2013)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.

Rank	Name	PAIN	IP (2013)	IP (2012)
1	Jason Marquis	228.4	107.0	127.2
2	Jeff Locke	218.7	102.0	34.1
3	Jared Hughes	213.1	16.1	75.2
4	Lucas Harrell	184.7	103.2	193.2
5	Jonathan Broxton	158.0	27.0	58.0
6	Cory Gearrin	154.9	31.0	20.0
7	Alexi Ogando	146.0	55.1	66.0
8	Tanner Scheppers	144.0	43.0	32.1
9	Esmil Rogers	139.5	65.2	78.2
10	Javier Lopez	138.7	20.2	36.0
11	Chris Resop	137.0	18.0	73.2
12	Matt Moore	129.9	100.0	177.1
13	Wily Peralta	122.5	97.1	29.0
14	Santiago Casilla	121.0	19.0	63.1
15	John Axford	105.2	37.0	69.1
16	Luis Mendoza	102.9	81.1	166.0
17	Matt Harrison	102.4	10.2	213.1
18	Francisco Liriano	100.0	69.2	156.2
19	Mark Lowe	99.4	11.2	39.1
20	Franklin Morales	91.1	12.1	76.1
21	Scott Feldman	87.3	97.0	123.2
22	Craig Stammen	85.5	46.2	88.1
23	Felix Hernandez	85.3	123.2	232.0
24	Brett Myers	80.9	21.1	65.1
25	Jake Westbrook	80.0	68.0	174.2
26	Carlos Villanueva	79.9	74.1	125.1
27	Ryan Dempster	77.4	107.0	173.0
28	Paco Rodriguez	77.1	30.2	6.2
29	Michael Bowden	76.7	16.2	39.2
30	Barry Enright	74.8	8.1	3.2

• Wily Peralta last start was skipped because of a pulled hamstring. A hamstring is not the arm injuries I look for with PAIN. He does have some classic arm injury signs. First, a lower velocity.

Next, a low Zone% (42.5%) which is lower than his 2012 value of 44.9%. Additionally, he is taking an extra 1.5 secs longer between pitches. Finally, he has been trying to find a consistent horizontal release point over the course of the season (1.5 ft difference).

Maybe the hamstring injury will give Peralta a chance to rest the injury which may be ailing his arm.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.