2022 Projection Accuracy: Hitter Counting Stats
It’s time to continue examining projection accuracy. Today, it’s a quick run through the hitter counting stats. From last year’s results, I came to the following conclusion.
Hitter Rate/Counting Stats
For the stand-alone projections, THE BATs stands out (I’d use THE BAT X). Just below THE BAT are all four aggregators.
This year’s results didn’t disappoint.
I’m not reposting all the background information that no one reads anyway. It can all be found in the previous playing time article. I’ll just post the results and then draw my conclusions.
Runs RSME Values for All Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 22.6 |
| Aggregator #1 | 23.9 |
| ZiPS | 24.1 |
| THE BAT X | 24.2 |
| Post-Season Best | 24.5 |
| THE BAT | 24.5 |
| ATC | 25.1 |
| Preseason Guess | 25.2 |
| Median | 25.3 |
| Average | 25.8 |
| CBS | 25.9 |
| ZEILE | 25.9 |
| Rotoholic | 26.0 |
| Davenport | 26.0 |
| Paywall #4 | 26.1 |
| Razzball | 26.1 |
| Paywall #2 | 26.3 |
| FreezeStats | 26.6 |
| FG Depth Charts | 26.7 |
| Paywall #5 | 26.8 |
| Paywall #6 | 26.8 |
| Steamer | 26.8 |
| DraftBuddy | 26.9 |
| ZiPS DC | 27.0 |
| Paywall #1 | 27.3 |
| Paywall #3 | 28.3 |
| Mays Copeland | 30.3 |
Runs RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 20.2 |
| Aggregator #1 | 21.5 |
| THE BAT X | 21.6 |
| ZiPS | 21.7 |
| THE BAT | 21.8 |
| Post-Season Best | 21.9 |
| ATC | 22.4 |
| Preseason Guess | 22.6 |
| Median | 22.7 |
| Average | 23.2 |
| CBS | 23.2 |
| ZEILE | 23.2 |
| Rotoholic | 23.3 |
| Davenport | 23.4 |
| Paywall #4 | 23.6 |
| Razzball | 23.8 |
| FreezeStats | 23.9 |
| FG Depth Charts | 24.0 |
| Paywall #2 | 24.0 |
| Paywall #5 | 24.1 |
| ZiPS DC | 24.2 |
| Steamer | 24.2 |
| Paywall #6 | 24.3 |
| DraftBuddy | 24.3 |
| Paywall #1 | 24.6 |
| Paywall #3 | 25.7 |
| Mays Copeland | 28.1 |
Home Run RSME Values for All Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Paywall #2 | 8.8 |
| Davenport | 9.0 |
| Post-Season Best | 9.4 |
| ZiPS | 9.7 |
| Aggregator #1 | 9.7 |
| THE BAT X | 9.8 |
| THE BAT | 10.0 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 10.0 |
| ATC | 10.0 |
| Median | 10.1 |
| Preseason Guess | 10.2 |
| Razzball | 10.3 |
| CBS | 10.3 |
| ZEILE | 10.3 |
| Paywall #5 | 10.3 |
| Average | 10.4 |
| Rotoholic | 10.4 |
| Paywall #4 | 10.6 |
| FreezeStats | 10.8 |
| DraftBuddy | 10.8 |
| Steamer | 10.8 |
| Paywall #1 | 10.8 |
| ZiPS DC | 10.9 |
| FG Depth Charts | 10.9 |
| Paywall #6 | 11.0 |
| Paywall #3 | 11.1 |
| Mays Copeland | 11.1 |
Home Run RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Paywall #2 | 8.3 |
| Davenport | 8.5 |
| Post-Season Best | 8.8 |
| ZiPS | 9.1 |
| Aggregator #1 | 9.2 |
| THE BAT X | 9.2 |
| THE BAT | 9.3 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 9.4 |
| ATC | 9.4 |
| Median | 9.5 |
| Preseason Guess | 9.6 |
| CBS | 9.6 |
| ZEILE | 9.6 |
| Paywall #5 | 9.7 |
| Razzball | 9.7 |
| Average | 9.7 |
| Rotoholic | 9.8 |
| Paywall #4 | 10.0 |
| DraftBuddy | 10.1 |
| Paywall #1 | 10.1 |
| FreezeStats | 10.2 |
| ZiPS DC | 10.2 |
| Steamer | 10.3 |
| FG Depth Charts | 10.3 |
| Paywall #6 | 10.3 |
| Paywall #3 | 10.4 |
| Mays Copeland | 10.6 |
RBI RSME Values for All Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| THE BAT X | 24.2 |
| THE BAT | 24.4 |
| Post-Season Best | 25.1 |
| Paywall #2 | 25.2 |
| Aggregator #1 | 25.2 |
| ATC | 25.4 |
| Preseason Guess | 25.4 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 25.8 |
| Davenport | 26.0 |
| Median | 26.1 |
| Razzball | 26.2 |
| ZiPS | 26.3 |
| CBS | 26.7 |
| ZEILE | 26.7 |
| Average | 26.8 |
| Rotoholic | 26.8 |
| Paywall #5 | 26.8 |
| Paywall #4 | 27.0 |
| FreezeStats | 27.3 |
| Paywall #6 | 27.5 |
| Steamer | 27.6 |
| DraftBuddy | 27.6 |
| Paywall #1 | 28.5 |
| FG Depth Charts | 28.9 |
| Mays Copeland | 29.8 |
| ZiPS DC | 30.2 |
| Paywall #3 | 30.2 |
RBI RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| THE BAT X | 22.2 |
| THE BAT | 22.3 |
| Post-Season Best | 22.8 |
| ATC | 23.1 |
| Preseason Guess | 23.2 |
| Aggregator #1 | 23.2 |
| Paywall #2 | 23.4 |
| Davenport | 23.5 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 23.6 |
| Median | 23.8 |
| Razzball | 24.0 |
| ZiPS | 24.2 |
| CBS | 24.3 |
| ZEILE | 24.3 |
| Paywall #5 | 24.4 |
| Rotoholic | 24.5 |
| Average | 24.5 |
| Paywall #4 | 24.8 |
| FreezeStats | 25.0 |
| DraftBuddy | 25.2 |
| Paywall #6 | 25.3 |
| Steamer | 25.3 |
| Paywall #1 | 26.0 |
| FG Depth Charts | 26.6 |
| ZiPS DC | 27.9 |
| Paywall #3 | 27.9 |
| Mays Copeland | 28.0 |
SB RSME Values for All Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Post-Season Best | 5.6 |
| THE BAT X | 5.6 |
| Median | 5.7 |
| ZiPS | 5.7 |
| FreezeStats | 5.7 |
| Razzball | 5.7 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 5.7 |
| Average | 5.7 |
| Preseason Guess | 5.7 |
| CBS | 5.7 |
| ZEILE | 5.7 |
| Paywall #2 | 5.7 |
| Steamer | 5.7 |
| THE BAT | 5.8 |
| Aggregator #1 | 5.8 |
| Paywall #4 | 5.8 |
| ATC | 5.8 |
| FG Depth Charts | 5.9 |
| Davenport | 5.9 |
| Paywall #3 | 5.9 |
| Rotoholic | 6.0 |
| DraftBuddy | 6.0 |
| Mays Copeland | 6.0 |
| Paywall #1 | 6.2 |
| ZiPS DC | 6.3 |
| Paywall #6 | 6.3 |
| Paywall #5 | 6.3 |
SB RSME Values for All But the Hurt Hitters
| Name | RMSE |
|---|---|
| Median | 5.0 |
| Post-Season Best | 5.0 |
| Mr. Cheatsheet | 5.0 |
| THE BAT X | 5.0 |
| Preseason Guess | 5.0 |
| Average | 5.0 |
| FG Depth Charts | 5.0 |
| CBS | 5.0 |
| ZEILE | 5.0 |
| Paywall #4 | 5.1 |
| ATC | 5.1 |
| Razzball | 5.1 |
| Rotoholic | 5.1 |
| FreezeStats | 5.1 |
| ZiPS | 5.1 |
| THE BAT | 5.1 |
| Steamer | 5.1 |
| Paywall #3 | 5.2 |
| ZiPS DC | 5.2 |
| Davenport | 5.3 |
| Aggregator #1 | 5.3 |
| Paywall #1 | 5.4 |
| Paywall #2 | 5.4 |
| Paywall #6 | 5.5 |
| Mays Copeland | 5.5 |
| Paywall #5 | 5.5 |
| DraftBuddy | 5.6 |
A few thoughts:
- While some individual projections took a top spot like Mr. Cheatsheet with Runs and Paywall #2 with Home Runs, most of the aggregators and THE BATs dominate the top spots. These results are almost a mirror copy of 2022. A couple of notes on the aggregators. ZEILE, a specific average of other projections, and The Average didn’t perform as well this year. I think the bottom projections are dragging down their results. In every single comparison, the Median beat the Average. Going forward, I think that if people are going to aggregate the competitors, they need to be selective with the systems used. The key might be to stay away from the bottom options.
- THE BATs do a great job staying ahead of changes and consistently beat those systems that aggregate them.
- The Davenport and ZiPS projections performed decently, but that’s not a surprise knowing that they projected playing time correctly.
- The difference in stolen base rates was almost negligible from bottom to top.
Next up are the hitting rate stats.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
If I only had one analysis, this would be the one I wanted.
However, if I had the playing time analysis (Part 1) and the rate stat analysis (presumably Part 3), does this tell me anything that isn’t broken out in those two studies?