2021 Starting Pitcher Ranks – Final Draft Edition
This weekend is the last big push of drafts so it’s time for one final update of my SP ranks. Lots of movement as it’s time to lock in and put together our rotations.
The blue bar represents the START of a new tier. Yes, deGrom is his own tier.
You can also get up to the minute rankings of every position on our Patreon.
UPDATE(S):
- I didn’t adjust Carrasco for his groin issue, so I put him at 102.5 right now because I’m not able to update the table right now and he’s going to slot in after Thor, but I wanted to note Carrasco’s drop. Thanks to Mike from Twitter for catching that.
Draft Season SP List
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This is the lowest I’ve seen Kluber ranked. Think he’s going to get hurt/stink in NY?
Not stink, but I threw a dose of reality on myself when judging the already-bad fastball guy coming back from essentially 2 yrs off. Love the secondary stuff, but think a few really rough starts will spoil his season and leave him w/an ERA approaching or exceeding 4.00.
I just have a feeling we’re gonna be like “well he had a 3.38 ERA if you remove these 4 starts”, but w/those 4 starts, he’s at like 4.25 w/a decent WHIP and solid Ks. Draftable, but I’ve toned down my overall interest in him, espec. versus their other reclamation project: Jameson Taillon.
Do you feel that he might be more or less valuable in H2H?
What do you see as a BEST case scenario for Taillon?
I feel like your Patreon should have some more tiers. Maybe if someone ponies up REALLY big for “The deGrom” one of you sits on a zoom call with them for their fantasy draft!
We offered that up w/the $100 tier. No one took us up on it, but I think part of that was a lack of promotion with the Patreon being new (or maybe just no one wanted it, lol, we’ll see for sure next year, IMO). Next draft season, we’ll be a year into the Patreon and I foresee more interest in either a draft prep call or the actual draft.
The Bryce Harper
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In addition to all of the above, you will have access to Justin or Paul for a 2.5-3 hour draft prep session (schedule permitting). It can be either the draft itself or a preparation period before the draft. Both Justin and Paul will take on 3 events apiece and reach out to the Patrons to determine who they want and when they want to schedule it.
Montas too high especially now he’s hurt
Injured? He has a torn cuticle, I’m not too concerned.
But the cuticle really tied the room together
I hate the fingernail injuries. They linger, have bad two-inning starts and don’t go on the IL to fix it until their season, and your fantasy team, is a total mess.
curious no josh fleming – just don’t see him getting starts?
Paul, what type of league are your rankings based on? 5×5?
Yes, 5×5 is the basis for these. Not exactly sure the big moves I’d have if it were H2H off the top of my head, but it wouldn’t be 100% the same list
I ask because I’m in traditional 4×4 and without K’s starting pitcher values will be considerably different.
Oh ya, 4×4 is crazy different.
Gallen is dead
Ack, my Gallen ranking didn’t save from the other day. Pardon me, I didn’t spot check him bc I knew I’d gone in and fixed it the other day.
The Dodgers with 7 guys in the top 78, is that good?
How can it be bad????
I know nothing about pitching so I will use this chart for my fantasy draft. Thanks Paul!
I want to sign up for the $3 a month but its still not clear if I can cancell anytime?
From the Fangraphs membership? Yes, you can. You can on the Patreon, too, though those are separate things.
I am surprised by the Soroka rating. Sure, he’s hurt, but it wasn’t arm related and it sounds like he’s only out for a month. Is Soroka minus one month really worse than the next 20 or so guys higher than him on the list? He should breeze past, say, Tarik Skubal in total value even with a head start.
Just bc it wasn’t arm related doesn’t mean it’s not serious. Your base is remarkably important in pitching, it’s where you get all of your power so this is a serious injury. Giving a month up off rip is huge and that’s just the timetable, players oftentimes go beyond the set timetable (sometimes they beat it, but more often they go longer).
If Skubal pitches all six months, I’d be pretty surprised if Soroka bypasses him w/just 4.5-5 mos of work, especially w/his relatively modest K outputs. I put it at a very low chance that he “breezes” by him.
Wins are way in Soroka’s favor though. I feel like that gets ignored a lot. He’s in a position to get more W’s per start than almost anyone who isn’t a Dodger.
Yeah, I think this may boil down to format, because I play H2H with pitcher wins. I can find a guy to fill in for a few weeks while Soroka is out, taking up only an IL spot, and after that what’ve you got: he’s probably not the ace he pitched like in 2019, but a 3.8 ERA w/ above average wins is totally achievable, and that’s probably what you’re still getting all the way up at, what, Dylan Bundy?
Admittedly Bundy does have an edge in Ks, so not a perfect comp.
I mean, his ADP and these rankings are treating him like he’s closer in value to the TJS guys than to the quality 3/4 pitchers, and I just view that as an opportunity.
for whatever it’s worth, Soroka is slated to pitch a couple innings in tomorrow’s last spring training game
IMO Puk is ranked too high and Robbie Ray too low.
Lol. Ray has a lot to prove this year. Mind you I re-auctioned him for cheap this year but my expectations are super low after watching him give up Bb’s and Hr’s galore last season.
Puk read this and is now determined to make it false
Am I missing him, or is Kershaw not listed?
#5
No Alex Wood? Is that just injury related?
Are the pitcher velo charts broken?
Haven’t been able to get one to load for days.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mike-clevinger/12808/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2020&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=FA
Worked for me (on Firefox). Try a different browser? Or clear the cache?
It was fixed this morning
Does Lindblom’s ranking consider that barring anything major he won’t start the season in the rotation?
He was ranked as an SP. He has to move down now
Mize’s velo spike this spring has me really intrigued. I would move him up a tier
How are you so high on Ponce de Leon? Sure, he’s a pretty good swing-man, but he’s still only the Cardinals’ 6th best starter at best, he’ll probably be back in the bullpen before the end of April, and he hasn’t even been guaranteed a spot in the season opening rotation yet.
Meanwhile, Mikolas is a much better pitcher and more likely to make more starts (even with his current injury) than PdL, yet he’s a tier below?
His name moves him up like 10 slots alone
Not buying Rodon or Ray’s spring numbers?
C. Rodon might be a sneaky upside play– 13.2 IP, 9H, 2R, 1HR, 1BB, 16K this spring, with the 5th spot locked down. Fastball’s back up to 94-96 like it was at peak a few years ago. Supposedly 1) his new pitching coach’s regimen is really helping and 2) he finally started working out and eating well like a major leaguer should since getting nontendered, lol. Plenty of questions about health, but isn’t far off from Paxton in many regards.
re: Carrasco: he is only out a month, has an incredibly high floor track record, and gets to face pitchers instead of a DH for the first time in his career.
You have him behind TJ recovery guys who might only pitch 50-80 innings on much worse teams. What am I missing here? To me it seems like Carrasco blows out Thor and Sale easily.
Alec Mills needs to drop a lot, he didn’t even make the rotation.
Lance Lynn is in the Walker Buehler / Max Scherzer tier? I’d love to be sold on him because I think I’ll miss out on everyone else coming back around to me in 3/4 round.
Wow no Logan Webb? Dude just earned the #3 rotation spot, gave up just 3 hits in 11IP this spring with 17K
Curious why you ranked Giolito so low? The usually conservative ZiPS projections have him first in pitcher fWAR, with a 2.98 FIP, and a league-best 12.4 K/9.