2021 Roster Review: Texas Rangers
60-102 (5th in Division; 28th in MLB)
SP Wins: 33 (25th)
RP Wins: 27 (28th)
Saves: 31 (27th)
1+ Save: 5 (Ian Kennedy 16, Joe Barlow 11, Spencer Patton 2, Josh Sborz, Joely Rodriguez 1)
100+ Ks: 3 (Jordan Lyles 146, Dane Dunning 114, Kolby Allard 104)
.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Isiah Kiner-Falefa .271, Nathaniel Lowe .264)
65+ Runs: 3 (Adolis García 77, Lowe 75, Kiner-Falefa 74)
65+ RBI: 2 (García 90, Lowe 72)
10+ HRs: 6 (García 31, Joey Gallo 25, Lowe 18, DJ Peters 12, Nick Solak 11, Jonah Heim 10)
5+ SBs: 9 (Kiner-Falefa 20, García 16, Yonny Hernandez 11, Leody Taveras 10, Lowe 8, Solak, Charlie Culberson 7, Gallo 6, Brock Holt 5)
BEST BUY: Nathaniel Lowe
Lowe’s season was buoyed by an 8-for-8 effort on the bases and even with that he was just 20th at 1B. If the speed contributions are legitimate, he’s a mini-Goldschmidt coming into his own with a strong foundation. Even if it regresses, there is power and AVG upside that could yield a .280 AVG/30 HR season.
ON THE RISE: Nick Solak
I still have Solak as a riser despite the dud season in ’21. Solak’s season started brilliantly with a .910 OPS, 7 HR, and 2 SB in April but then had a .612 OPS with 4 HR and 5 SB from May on (spanning 100 games and 399 PA). There aren’t any glowing signs in his profile that scream “buy!”, but looking at his full profile, we see as much good as bad. He had a 113 wRC+ in his first 480 PA and a 72 in his last 399. He found himself a bit during his demotion (123 wRC+) and his recall (113 wRC+) and I still see a solid double-double second baseman with an upside of 20/20.
OFF THE RADAR: DJ Peters
Peters is probably just an all-or-nothing bat that flashes big power but doesn’t make nearly enough contact to maintain fantasy value, an increasingly popular profile across the game. However, he is a tweak or two – or even just some good BABIP and HR/FB luck – away from fantasy viability. In 52 games with Texas, he hit .198/.218/.426 with 12 HR, good for a 37 HR pace. Of course, they’d have to stomach that line for 642 PA to get him there, but the power is evident. He is a Draft & Hold kind of pick right now with a chance to be an intriguing in-season pickup for standard formats.
HOT TAKE: Dane Dunning posts 150+ IP of a 3.50 or better ERA in 2022.
Dunning debuted last year with the White Sox, throwing 34 solid innings (3.99 FIP) after missing all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He moved to Texas pitched well enough in 117.7 innings (3.94 FIP), though they seemed to be managing his workload since he still wasn’t that far removed from TJ (avg. of 4.6 IP/GS). The reins should come off in 2022 and Dunning could post 180ish innings on the high end while also setting a new high in K% (>25%). Keep an eye on him!
ICYMI: Joe Barlow had great results as the closer, posting a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 16.3 IP while notching 11 saves. His 5% K-BB rate in that time was brutal, but he had a 26% mark in his first 12.7 IP so there is hope for improvement. He could reasonably open the year as their closer and be a solid 3rd option for fantasy teams.
What Smith are you talking about for On the Rise, looks like you may have left Solak in from last year?
It actually looks like it’s Pavin Smith from the last Roster Review entry
it is, forgot to paste the Solak update. Doing a podcast right now, but will update right after. Sorry about that, y’all!
Fixed!
Is there a place where I can find all of the Roster Reviews in one spot?
Yes, I’ll have a “Previous Reviews” atop each article: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/category/roster-review/
Hey Paul – Just wondering what the value is in including Gallo here vs only listing him with NYY since that is his current team and where he’ll play in 2022. Or is there a reason to list him here that I am missing? Not a criticism or anything . . . just curious.
Not Paul, but I imagine that Paul included Gallo because Gallo was a part of the Rangers for part of the year and this is a 2021 roster review. Even though Gallo’s mentioned in the stat lines, I imagine that traded players don’t get mentioned in the write ups afterward apart from maybe a ‘they’re going to miss so-and-so in 2022’, if anything.
DJ Peters’ projections will continue to be limited by a substandard quality in his swing and miss profile; however, there is reason to believe his Gallo-esque woes, flirting in Mendoza, are due to the underwhelming percentage of his batted balls distributed away from line drives. Any surge in line drives should boost his BABIP sufficient enough to sustain as a viable power option. It remains if this is a stubborn condition of his swing. It would be something I hope Fangraphs can follow up on, at least in news reports or in video reviews.
Both Gallo and Peters have similar strikeout rates, though their plate discipline very different. Both have pretty poor contact rates in the low 60s, but Gallo is much more selective (Career swing rate of 44% versus Peters at 56%) and has a much better batting eye (Career OSwing of 23% versus Peters at 34%).
Peters can still evolve as a hitter but has a lot to change before he can turn into a decent hitter.
In terms of OPS and OBP the walks are nice; however, in terms of Peters becoming relevant, the balancing of his batted ball profile and his flaws in his swing take precedence. Until that shows up, there is no way he can stay in the league. When it clears up or if it fails, then going the path of Gallo may make sense to keep the PAs.
But in terms of fantasy value for leagues that are concerned with BA, HRs, and not OBP or OPS his walk percent only limits his opportunities to max HRs