2020 Shortstop Rankings
Shortstop is regarded as the deepest position on the diamond and I agree with that. It is remarkably rich with talent and you might wind up with your SS, MI, and UT from the position in some drafts. I can’t recall a time where that was ever the case.
Any of the top 26 could feasibly be your starter at the position and it wouldn’t be awful. Those guys in the 19-26 range have either already done it or have real upside to be strong starters. That kind of depth is usually reserved for 1B!
The blue bar starts a new tier. I included guys with at least 10 appearances/5 starts at SS to accommodate Yahoo!’s eligibility rules. Please let me know if I forgot to include anyone who definitely belongs on the list (meaning like an obvious top 25 type… there are some guys toward the end you might like but I likely didn’t include them because they’re not good enough)
If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.
Let me know what you think in the comments! What’s your gameplan at SS? Are you looking to pile up multiple studs at the position or are you going to push you luck and wait for the depth to come to you?
Surprised to see JP Crawford at 55. What turns you off from him? Seems like he would fit in around Orlando Arcia seeing they are the same age and JP posted a better wRC+ last year? Plus JP is going to have that shortstop job all year? Thanks!
Ah dang, that was a mistake, tbh. He should be in the 33-48 tier for sure. I was doing my sweep on the bottom tiers adjusting a buncha guys and just forgot Crawford. Thanks for the heads up. I’m not a superfan, but he definitely deserves a higher slotting, probably 45 right behind Tucker & VanMeter.
Marcus Semien and Lucas Giolito are two strong performers (1st time elite or near-elite) from last season whom I see that the industry feels needs to prove themselves again, based on rankings. Both should have good seasons, but I am really pulling for Semien to convert any remaining doubters.
I’m a big Semien fan, but I’m not sure a case can really be made for higher than 10-11, tbh, especially when so much of his production is volume-based.
I can see that, especially since even with his great season last year, in my points league he was the 7th ranked SS in points per plate appearance (minimum 100 at bats), and leaving some room for regression from what may have been his ceiling and allowing for the depth of fantasy talent at the position to lead to others possibly overtaking him, it is reasonable.
That begs the question in a points league whether you value points per plate appearance or total points on the season more. Availability and volume based production is a skill on its own.
I am missing the decision process on some of these. 2 days ago you gave us 2B with the following:
Josh VanMeter 40
Brendan Rodgers 41
Jose Peraza 47
Now we have SS with the following:
Jose Peraza 34
Brendan Rodgers 35
Josh VanMeter 44
I get it, at these rankings the tiers all wash together and a few positions up or down is meaningless. BUT you started the article with SS being the deepest position and then these three all moved UP in rankings compared to 2B while reshuffling their positions. It doesn’t make sense to me.
Despite the critique, I think the work your doing is great in both volume and quality.
Lol. Paul’s work is just a guy shooting from the hip. Volume is not a compliment. He’s the Hosmer of fangraphs analysts.
looooooooooool, that’s a big yikes, fella
Perhaps a $144M contract is in your future!
Danny Santana has SS eligibility in Ottoneu. I’m guessing he would fall in the second tier (as he’s above Villar in the 2B rankings)?
JP Crawford…upside.
also….Didi and Andrus seem like good value in this ranking.
Kike Hernandez (11 G, 6 GS) has to be on this list, right?
Also, Nick Madrigal does have SS eligibility in Yahoo leagues (I know, I know, Yahoo is weird. I remember playing Miguel Sano at SS in 2015 even though the Twins quickly abandoned any notion of him being a SS and he hadn’t played there in the minors since 2011)
Also Machado. . . .wow. Not disagreeing necessarily, but . . . .wow. It’s one thing to see a guy in his mid-30’s just disappear. It’s another to see a guy who’s 27 yo go from 1st rounder to 16th SS off the board in a couple years.
Also, I wouldn’t go there except in deeper leagues (& assuming he makes the team) but I know you love you some positional flexibility and Logan Forsythe qualifies at 1B, 2B, SS AND 3B in 10/5 leagues 🙂
Where’s Max Muncy?!?!
I kid. Great stuff as usual, Paul. Thanks for the work.
I am very curious as to why you have Story over Lindor?
You gotta pick one lol. Honestly Story has been ever so slightly better the last 2 years.
Would you rather fight one Lindor at Coors elevation or three Storys in the Cuyahoga River? It’s that simple.
Aw gee, that’s a tough one der Bab, but I can tell you dis: you can put them all in one corner and a mini-Ditka in the other, and I can tell you who’s gunna come out on top!
Wander Franco at 50? The chance of him seeing any playing time this year has to be close to 0. This is the Rays. He’s not rule 5 eligible for 4 years!
Adames, Robertson, Wendle, Lucius Fox, Taylor Walls…There’s no playing time for a high A SS, no matter how good he one day will be.
OK? I mean, c’mon man… if I don’t list him, I gotta answer why he’s not listed. It’s 50 for cryin’ out loud.
Adames projects to a .310 wOBA and none of the others even project to .300. If Franco goes nuclear on AA to start the year- not likely but possible- none of those guys are worth blocking him for.
What’s Franco project to?
The Taylor Walls and Lucius Foxes of the world are not blocking Wander Franco
Paying a 22 year old arbitration is what’s blocking him. The Rays aren’t going to blow a year of Wander’s team control so that he can be pretty much Robertson/Wendle/Fox/Walls.
19 year olds aren’t very good Major Leaguers. The Rays don’t allow players to leave as free agents before they even hit their peak. Wander’s clock doesn’t start while he’s a teenager.
Yeah agreed, Soto was trash.
As if one of the biggest outliers ever proves anything… but go off, I guess
Are you starting the clock on a 19 year old (turned 19 8 days ago!) if you plan to trade him when he reaches arbitration? Because it’s been 8 years since the Rays allowed a homegrown player to leave via free agency. Arb2 seems to be the magic number for them now.
The only chance that Wander sees the big leagues in 2020 is if he’s traded. Which he won’t be.
Soto was one of the 2000 or so professional 19 year olds employed by MLB teams every year. If you can count your examples over the last decade on one hand, your counterpoint isn’t very strong.
Eric Neander isn’t trading a 22 year old because he’s getting expensive in arbitration. It isn’t happening, because they won’t allow it to happen.
Generational talents like Franco are good major leaguers at 19
VanMeter has SS eligibility? He played one game there in AAA last year, and none in MLB.
I get why Turner is ranked so high but I can’t bring myself to do it; my first year in fantasy Baseball was 2007 and I knew nothing about it (work league) and I read some online ranks and took José Reyes with a top-5 pick and thought I was so slick. For the younger crowd, Jose Reyes (and similarly Carl Crawford) was Trea Turner before Trea Turner; billed as a .300/20/40 … that is, until you draft them on *your* team. It seemed so logical in March, but was always regrettable in May. I personally will do my very best to avoid drafting a hitter in the 1st round who does not have a Rock solid batting profile, blood-red Statcast data, and the best odds at 4-cat production . I look at Turner’s 2018 – .271/19/103/73/43 – that’s a no for me in the top-15, dog. YMMV.
I’ve had turner in my league since he was called up. I agree a bit with what you are saying, especially if he’s moved to 3rd in the batting order; might help his RBI but I’m guessing SBs will have to decline. But look at his numbers last year for 122 games – they are amazing. I have to protect 3 players in my league and have:
Cole, Devers, Trea, Beiber, Whit, Yordan and Vlad.
I’m leaning towards the first 3 on the list (cole for sure). I just can’t make a case for any of the others over Trea right now. And not picking him means I’d be scrambling for SBs.
I certainly don’t object to your ideal 1st rounder outline w/the blood red StatCast and power-heavy profile, but Turner is an unquestioned beast. He was a top 25 overall player in just 122 games last yr. He’s averaged .293-16-54-82-39 as an MLBer in just 114 games. When you add in replacement value you’re getting in the 3 years he’s been hurt, he’s easily been worth it every year.
I don’t find him particularly injury PRONE in that I don’t think he’s massively *more* likely to get hurt this year than others (last year’s bunt injury was a fluke) and as such I think he’s still one of the best multi-cat first rounders out there. Even if he bats 3rd and loses some SBs, I think we’re still getting at least .285-20-85-95-30 if he reaches 550-600 PA. Imagine if he stays healthy and drops another 162 like 2018. So there’s even some upside.
He’s 1 HR each of the last 2 yrs and 5 SB last yr from 20/40 in ’18-19 and some health luck from 20/40 in ’16-17. He’s a fantasy superstar.
I mean, if Trea Turner is not injury prone then the label has no meaning. He’s the definition of it. “Fluke” injuries most definitely count – flukes happen to all players all the time, and they don’t lose 30+ games to them. He’s a brittle dude.
That being said, he is as you say most definitely a stud and the ranking is justified because of what does when he is healthy. Particularly in today’s low SB environment. Literally nobody wants to be starting Jarrod Dyson or Billy Hamilton on their team, yet that’s what someone like Turner insures you against. Even if you’re only getting 120 games out of him.
That’s true, the label has no meaning. Jeff Zimmerman has done research showing it’s pretty meaningless.
machado seems kinda low. he isnt that far removed from being a top option, although the field has gotten much stronger in recent years.
Machado has to prove he can hit in his new home park. Over 317 PA’s he hit .219/.297/.406, 86 wRC+ in 2019. Also, some Padre officials questioned if Machado gave up on the season once they were out of contention as his production cratered.
The field got stronger, he went from a bandbox to a hitters nightmare, and his work ethic is not good. Bad guy to have influencing a young special talent like tatis, but we will see. Machado just kinda seems like one of those guys that once he got his big deal, he would coast.
Ya Princeton and ketchup cover it… except the coasting part, that’s unprovable horseshit that is only based on a dislike for him after the wildly misguided “not hustling” comment. In no way do I think he’s purposely coasting and riding his mega deal just bc he doesn’t always bust it to first on routine outs. I do think he’s never been good outside of Camden and doesn’t add SBs while SS became the deepest position on the diamond, pushing him way down
I kind of think his SS ranking is near irrelevant when he is more valuable at 3rd.
Also people are down on him but numerous big free agents struggle a bit their first year in a new home. I like betting on a 27 year old figuring it out especially when they have Manny’s talent. I also love the Pham addition and his OBP in front of him.
I don’t quite understand how Franco is behind Lewis, given that they are both minor leaguers and Franco has the far higher ceiling. Otherwise, great list! It’s a very deep position.
Eric projects Franco to debut this year and Lewis next, but Lewis is two years older and a level above him. This must be based on Paul’s expectations of potential playing time.
It’s one spot so hardly a big deal, but also Lewis has a muuuuuuuuuch bigger chance to get called up this year than Franco given age, level, and team circumstance
Not saying it’s wrong but Machado at #16 just seems weird
Bregman that far down due to cheating? ESPN has him 10th overall.
Almost none of it due to cheating tbh. Regression off a career year, doesn’t run, and depth of position. He’s still in the top tier.
No chance I’d draft him top 10 overall, though.
Cub fans thought Javy was elite lmaaaaaaoooo
Mainly bc he is… top 5-6 SS in the game when you factor in defense
Hey curious why Villar is ranked so low in 2B and SS rankings. His skill set seems similar to Adalberto Mondesi, just not as much upside on Mondesi in HR/SB but not as much injury risk and seems safer.
You can get anything you want in shortstop this year. In one league I’m drafted a shortstop as my UT…that’s a first for me.
Marte in front of Bregman? Lololololololol
Lack of buzzers and garbage pails = regression
Such a compelling case you’ve made, who could dare disagree?!?
Man, Tatis Jr. might make a lot of people cry this year.
Marcus Semien at 11th? Seriously? Why the huge decline?
Pretty sure he was ranked there or lower last year, so I believe he’s actually moved up. Shortstop is so deep, though…
Mondesi above Baez and Torres? Give me a break.
Massive amounts of possible steals are the bane of our fantasy baseball existence.
Ahhh good point, thanks for the explanation. I don’t play fantasy (I wandered over from FanGraphs), so I completely missed that part of the analysis, whoops.
Love Tatis but that .410 BABIP is scary. Give me the certainty of Bregman
I hope I get Correa at 13th off the board
Is Berti really going to play enough to be 28? He could be about Wendle level pretty easily.