Masked within encrypted updates,time’s running out on a return for Brandon Morrow. Pedro Strop’s filled in affably as the closer since July 19th converting 10 of the 12 save chances provided, including his outing on Wednesday night giving up a hit and a walk with a strikeout for his 12th save of the season. As for Morrow, he would need to throw at least two bullpen sessions and a simulated game prior to returning before the playoffs, but still not progressing well during his rehab, as intimated here:

https://twitter.com/CarrieMuskat/status/1037473848873168896

With the high leverage bridge evolving the last three weeks, plan on Strop anchoring the bullpen the rest of the way. There’s a slight glimmer of hope Morrow could return, but this rhetoric about his progress has been proliferated for almost two months. Plan accordingly.

More concrete news regarding Kenley Jansen. He will not make the trip to Colorado for a big series with implications in the standings. However, staying healthy, as it should be, remains of the utmost importance regarding his heart issues. Jansen did get work in on Wednesday tossing a clean ninth inning with two strikeouts. He’s made four straight scoreless appearances with five strikeouts against three hits since his four game runs allowed stretch. While this proves encouraging, his doctor also recommended Jansen returns to using the prescribed medication which made him feel like a “zombie” during the runs streak, so stay tuned to how this could affect his future performance. As for this weekend, Los Angeles could deploy a committee of Ryan Madson, Kenta Maeda and a wild card in high leverage:

Given the downside risk of bringing Kenley Jansen to Denver, plus the addition of Ryan Madson and the expected activation of Ross Stripling, it is hard to imagine the Dodgers will bring Kenley Jansen to Denver.

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) September 5, 2018

Unlike Maeda, Ross Stipling seemed excited for a chance to record a save if transitioned to the bullpen and makes for an intriguing arm this weekend in Coors for the Dodgers. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 5% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Steven Matz (New York Mets) – After a rugged four-game stretch, Matz has rebounded in a big way in his last three outings, featuring a 1.89 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 33% K rate, and 4.5% BB rate in 19 frames. It’s a small sample, though he might be worth the gamble as he has a cushy schedule of PHI, MIA, @PHI, @WSH, and MIA ahead. This could be a season-winning stretch.

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Last September, Jeff and I spent last September highlighting daily starters you could consider picking up for your playoffs and roto stretch run. We’ll be doing the same again this year starting with tomorrow’s super-lite 4-game slate.

(I’ll be citing the FantasyPros roster rates)

Luis Castillo – CIN v. SD (49%)

Castillo entered July with a 5.85 ERA, but has since put together a 10-start run of 3.23 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 55.7 IP with a 26% K rate and 4% BB rate. Two 5 ER duds during the run push the ERA a bit, but he bounced back strong from each one. The Arizona one was kinda weird, too, because he bookended four perfect innings with the five runs in an inning and two-thirds.

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It’s been a banner year for rookie players in 2018. This season we’ve seen the graduation of the minor leagues best all-around prospect (after the obligatory service time manipulation), a two-way phenom contribute on the mound and in the batter’s box, a 19-year-old that began the year in A-ball, and the Yankees continue to profit from their embarrassment of riches.

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I use xwOBA as a leading indicator of good or bad things to come mid-season, for better or for worse. It’d be good to know if such reliance is truly warranted. I further talked myself into the idea when I wrote about several underperforming hitters in early June. Many of the names therein went on some serious heaters afterward, too. It wasn’t as prescient as it was playing the odds: the hitters underperforming xwOBA most extremely through two months always, always (in the Statcast Era^TM) bounce back to some degree.

It’s “predictive,” but not universally so, and only by virtue of common sense, in the same way a pitcher who allows a sub-.200 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) through two months could not reasonably sustain this high level of contact management. (There’s a discussion to be had here about the gambler’s fallacy, but I don’t think it necessarily applies to baseball. For another day.)

In terms of prior work, it’s all Baseball Prospectus‘ Jonathan Judge (only a slight exaggeration): he compared xwOBA to BP’s DRA metric as well as FIP (fielding independent pitching), a much simpler ERA estimator, and showed xwOBA is hardly superior to the field, at least for pitching. However, the article only covered year-to-year, not in-season, correlations.

After our dear and departed (but not dead) Eno Sarris asked Judge if he had looked at in-season correlations specifically, and after our dear and departed (and also not dead) Mike Petriello reinforced the notion that xwOBA could serve as an in-season predictor of regression under certain circumstances, I figured it’s high time I just tackle the question.

So: How predictive is xwOBA of wOBA in-season? For hitters and for pitchers?

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Heading into Tuesday night’s game against the Nationals, we had already been given an indication that if the Cardinals needed a closer, they were not likely to go with Bud Norris. Mike Shildt told reporters that he was probably going to avoid using his incumbent closer on the night after he had given up Bryce Harper’s game-tying home run, which came the day after he yielded back-to-back 10th inning homers to Eugenio Suarez and Brandon Dixon. In fact, neither Norris nor Carlos Martinez were available for Tuesday night’s game against the Nationals, so Shildt set out to use Jordan Hicks as his closer, should he need one.
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I wish you would step back from that ledge my friend. You could cut ties with all those scrubs just clogging up your bench. Use Streaming Wars to help.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. More Cookie Talk

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The theme of this week’s deep league wire is POWER. Lots and lots of power. And unfortunately, perhaps nothing else. Most of you could use a couple of extra homers, right?

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I don’t really know. Thanks for reading!

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When I started writing Two Good Starts, Two Bad Starts earlier this season, the idea wasn’t to point out trends in small samples so that fantasy owners could act on them right away. That is almost always a bad idea. It was to identify changes in pitcher performance that could conceivably turn into longer-term trends, which in turn could be useful guides for making roster decisions. It could have easily been called Who To Put On Your Watch List.

Now that Labor Day is behind us, there isn’t much time left for small samples to become sufficiently large samples for making decisions. Then again, if you are still in contention, roster decisions will be especially crucial going forward. If you’ve been on autopilot in starting Jon Gray every week, there’s no time like now to consider if he is potentially worth benching. Similarly, if you continue to dismiss John Gant, even as he has shaved close to a run off his ERA over the past four weeks, you may be doing so at your own risk. Or maybe not…
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