Waiver Wire Week 22: 10 SP Targets

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 5% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Steven Matz (New York Mets) – After a rugged four-game stretch, Matz has rebounded in a big way in his last three outings, featuring a 1.89 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 33% K rate, and 4.5% BB rate in 19 frames. It’s a small sample, though he might be worth the gamble as he has a cushy schedule of PHI, MIA, @PHI, @WSH, and MIA ahead. This could be a season-winning stretch.

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – I thought last week would be the end of Holland’s run on this column, yet he’s just able to squeeze in with a 29% ownage rate. There’s no reason for him not to be owned at this point, boasting a 2.56 ERA, 26% K rate, 8.5% BB rate, and 1.125 WHIP across his last 84.1 frames. He has a few tough opponents ahead via @MIL, ATL, and LAD, but he’s still startable in 12-teamers, plus he gets back-to-back dates against the Padres in the middle. Beautiful.

Joey Lucchesi (San Diego Padres) – Along with Holland, Lucchesi has made himself at home in this weekly column, as owners are seemingly reluctant to pick up the southpaw despite consistently excelling on the field. Lucchesi is holding a solid 3.59 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate for the season, while allowing 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his last 12 starts. Strikeouts have been up as well, with each of his last six carrying six punchouts or more, and you’re left with a starter that should be owned in all 12-teamers.

Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays) – There’s still uncertainty surrounding Glasnow’s walk rate and ratios, but there is no doubt that his 25%+ strikeout rate is here to stay. Considering the high K floor and the decent possibility that he could string together more beneficial ERA/WHIP starts than poor, the reward is well worth the risk.

Jake Junis (Kansas City Royals) – Junis has been on fire in his last six starts, tallying a 1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 26% K rate, and a minuscule 3.3% BB rate in 36 frames. I do have concerns that his repertoire isn’t as solid as the returned results, but when a pitcher is this hot (the Cubs, Cardinals, Rays, nor Indians could slow him down!), you ride it until it stops.

Wei-Yin Chen (Miami Marlins) – One of the major surprises recently has been Chen’s 1.44 ERA and 0.80 WHIP with a 25% K rate across his last five starts. He’s introduced more sliders to his pitch mix with all-around success and he could continue to provide quality outings down the stretch – Chen’s ROS schedule of @PIT, @NYM, WSH, CIN, and @NYM is as blissful as it gets.

Joe Musgrove (Pittsburgh Pirates) – This is a tough one. Musgrove is fresh off an excellent eight strikeout & two earned runs outing against the Reds, though he has one of the toughest Septembers around, with @STL, @MIL, MIL, and CHC ahead. It may be worth it to chase that ceiling here with Musgrove as his floor is slightly higher than most given his low walk rates, though I can’t help but give caution to those expecting a smooth final month.

Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – Minor is the perfect example of a forgotten arm as his opening ten weeks gave him a “don’t roster” label. However, since his June 16th start, Minor has spun a 3.13 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 22% K rate, and 6% BB rate. However, it does come with a major warning sign – his 4.13 FIP is a product of his absurdly low .200 BABIP and should rise in the coming weeks. Nevertheless, even a regression to 3.70 ERA in this stretch provides value.

Matt Boyd (Detroit Tigers) – Boyd’s recent performances haven’t been as exciting as his August numbers, though his fastball velocity hit its peak at 92.2mph last time out against the Yankees while holding a diminished 90.2 mph mark over the full year. Paired with a fantastic slider that has earned a 15.5 pVal for the year, Boyd could survive a tough ROS schedule including the Cardinals, Indians, and Brewers.

Under 5% Owned

Sean Reid-Foley (Toronto Blue Jays) – This is a complete Hail Mary, but when a pitcher goes seven frames with 1 ER and ten strikeouts, you have to consider that he may be able to do it again. I’m not a huge fan of the stuff he brings to the table, though if it all works on a given day, it could return production once again. We’ve already seen his ceiling and floor (6 ER in 4.1 frames!) but with Marcus Stroman possibly out for the season, Reid-Foley may have more chances to impress us on the bump.