Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) – This could be nothing, but it could be something as Marco Estrada has dominated in his last two starts, allowing 3 ER in 12 frames against the Yankees and Orioles, posting a wonderful 15/1 strikeout per walk ratio. His fastball has been toxic through the season, but has performed wildly better in these starts, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, a corner has been turned that could spell better days. One more great start will exile him from this weekly article, and this might be your only chance to act.

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Finding hitters on the wire is always challenging. We know scooping someone with a .500 AVG and a bundle of homers over a 2-3 week sample will come back to earth, but how much? Is it their one hot streak for the year or something more viable? I’ve got three surging bats to look at here. One is just north of 50% because I really wanted to talk about him. Deep leaguers will likely only be able to acquire these guys via trade, but we can dive into the backend of the player pool another time.

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Teams are beginning to make the hard call if they are going to buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. I’ll start investigating the players most likely to be traded, how their value will change, and their possible replacements. I’m not going to make the call on who is or isn’t going to be moved. I’m going to rely on the great writers at MLBTradeRumors.com and use their top-50 trade candidate list. I’ll start with the top five players.

1. Manny Machado

Machado is nearly a perfect trade chip. A complete hitter who can play either shortstop or third base. I can’t envision a single scenario where his value takes a hit. He may end up in a pitcher-friendly park but he’ll be hitting in the middle of a better lineup. It can’t be worse than Baltimore’s lineup.

Every single contending team could use Machado as an upgrade while some teams need him worse. Trying to pick a destination right now is about impossible. I’m a little worried he’s more likely headed to the National League for those owners with him in AL-only leagues. I don’t see Baltimore trading him to the Yankees or Red Sox to help them win a World Series.

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It’s been entirely too long since my last post, as I was hit with a double whammy of a death in the family and an emergency appendectomy for yours truly, but I’m back in the saddle!

Before I get into the meat of this article, I’d just like to give an update on the status of the ottoneu power rankings. I had some issues with the scripts when I tried to run the rankings for April, and my intention was to post May rankings last week, but obviously life got in the way. At this point I think it makes the most sense to just wait until June is over, so expect the first power rankings to be published the first week in July. Thanks for your patience!

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Gabe Kapler has cast a wide net for the Phillies’ closer committee, using four different relievers to start off a final inning in a save situation since removing Hector Neris as the full-time closer. Neris, who has been a part of that mix, flubbed the one high-leverage situation he has had over the last three weeks. Luis Garcia has been entrusted with several high-stakes situations lately, but it may be hard for Kapler to trust him as a setup reliever, much less as a closer, going forward. Garcia has allowed six runs over his last three innings, and in each of the Phillies’ last two games, he has bequeathed a save opportunity onto a teammate after making a mess in the ninth inning.

On Sunday, Garcia gave way to Tommy Hunter after allowing a single and a double against the Brewers, but he got into more serious trouble in Tuesday’s series opener against the Rockies. Garcia started off the ninth inning with a comfortable 5-1 lead, but he allowed four consecutive singles before handing a bases-loaded, no-out save situation over to Seranthony Dominguez. The Rockies continued to go station-to-station against Dominguez, as Chris Iannetta singled in Gerardo Parra to cut the lead to 5-3. DJ LeMahieu’s sacrifice fly shaved off another run, but Dominguez retired Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado for his third save.
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So I’ve observed something re: speed bumps. People in Jeeps and other SUVs are 10 times more likely to come to a full stop before driving over a bump. They’re designed to be taken at five to 10 mph. Pretty sure your Caddy Escalade can handle a little bounce. My shitcan Corolla can.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. 80 Grade Awareness

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Welcome back to the deep league waiver wire. You must have missed my weekly Wednesday recommendations oh so dearly. This week, we focus on being proactive with a hitter and reactive with a new closer.

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Me dodging responsibilities at work:

WHOOP! pic.twitter.com/mmglhTcw1f

— MLB (@MLB) June 13, 2018

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A few years back, I created a system to help me find under the radar prospects using just position, age at the level, and minor league production (wRC+). I wanted a system besides industry lists to use in dynasty leagues and it worked fine. At the same time though, FanGraphs hired this guy named Chris Mitchel and he created KATOH. His system quickly outperformed mine, so instead of trying to keep up, I asked him to join my fantasy teams. With Chris now gone, my old system is back and running to help find some diamonds in the rough.

As I previously stated, the rankings are just based on age at the level, position, and production. The final value created by the program approximates the players value based on lining up the player to actual prospect grades (80 = MVP, <20 = minor league filler). Obviously, the ranking isn’t close to the final say but I find some hitters before other do.

Note: If any player type seems misplaced, let me know. From eye-balling some values, catchers may be getting too much of a position adjustment.

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Fantasy owners tend to give good hitters on bad teams short shrift, and that was certainly the case for Justin Bour this spring. Even though he was coming off a breakout season in which he batted .289 with 25 home runs and 83 RBI in 429 plate appearances, Bour fell to the late rounds in many leagues, lagging behind the less accomplished Greg Bird and Josh Bell in ADP.

Two-and-a-half months into the season, the Marlins first baseman seems to be validating owners’ fears. He ranks 29th in a largely-disappointing pool of first basemen in terms of Roto value (per ESPN’s Player Rater). Bour is batting just .242, and despite posting a .375 OBP, he has scored just 24 runs. With 10 home runs and 27 RBI in 253 plate appearances, he is well behind last season’s pace for both stats. It’s little wonder he is widely available in 12-team mixed leagues.
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