He’s the new Ryan Howard (tiny $1/mo paywall).
UPDATE: Video podcast is live. We did a DRAFT draft and talked through every corner of the Thursday night slate.
AGENDA
We’ve entered an era where we can no longer just completely ignore Rockies starting pitchers. OK, if you’re in a 10-team league, you needn’t give them a ton of attention, but anything beyond that probably has at least a couple of their guys rostered as spot starters. Perhaps most surprising is the fact that their perceived best has been their outright worst with Jon Gray posting a 5.68 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 65 innings, though his base skills are also the best of the bunch with a 20% K-BB rate (he’s best among their SPs in both components, too). Yet the less-heralded Kyle Freeland has performed much better across the board (3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) and remains much more available across the main fantasy outlets.
Should we chase Gray’s gaudy skills or settle for the staid workhorse-like profile of Freeland?
I’m going to blame Mark Melancon. I started out yesterday with the hope of writing about him. The article was selfish because I took a chance on Hunter Strickland before he was named the closer and my gamble paid off. With Melancon back, I wanted to see if his reduced velocity cutter would still be useful. And that was as far as I got with the article.
I was sick of thinking about fantasy baseball. The problem is that when your livelihood requires continuous fantasy baseball content, this sickness can’t last. I tried to move onto another topic with no luck. After a few unproductive hours, mainly wasted on Twitter discussing valuing player risk, I just gave up. The dog days of summer hit me head on and I lost.
This event usually occurs me a couple times during the summer with content and demands coming at me constantly. I approach them two ways. Either I just power on and produce 20-grade material or beg my bosses for a break. As this article demonstrates, I am going with the first approach.
The White Sox’s doubleheader against the Twins on Tuesday served as a closer drama with two acts. In the first game, the Sox crusied into the bottom of the eighth inning with a 2-0 lead, and they were on the verge of something they hadn’t had since May 22 — a ninth-inning save situation. Nate Jones, who recorded the team’s last save in that game from 15 days ago, was brought in for the eighth inning to face the Twins’ 8-9-1 portion of the batting order. He retired Ehire Adrianza and Mitch Garver at the bottom of the order, but leadoff hitter Brian Dozier reached on a single. After walking Eddie Rosario, Jones allowed Miguel Sano to cut the lead to one run with an RBI single. Then Eduardo Escobar snatched the lead away with a three-run homer.
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You may not know this, but I moonlight as a priest of the baseball gods. There are many ways to pay your tithe.
AGENDA
It has been 33 days since the Mariners moved Wade LeBlanc into their rotation. In that time he has quietly made six starts, all with game scores of 50 or higher. He has not allowed more than two runs in any of the outings, compiling a 1.72 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
I say LeBlanc has done all of this quietly, because he is being ignored almost universally in mixed leagues. He is owned in 18 percent of the leagues on CBS and 10 percent of ESPN leagues. You could argue that, for all of LeBlanc’s accomplishments over the last five weeks, there are reasons to avoid him in fantasy. His track record is not exactly distinguished, and in nine prior seasons in the majors, only once did he pitch more than 80 innings. Even with the success LeBlanc has had with preventing runs and limiting baserunners this season, he is striking out batters at a pedestrian 19.1 percent rate.
According to ESPN’s Player Rater, he ranks just 55th in Roto value among starting pitchers over the past 30 days, though he ranks 29th among relief-eligible pitchers. In CBS points leagues with default settings, LeBlanc fares a little better, ranking 4oth among starters and 15th among relievers over the past 28 days.
However, this version of LeBlanc — the one of the last 33 days — has been different. He has been throwing his sinker more often, using it at a 34.0 percent rate, and it’s a pitch he throws for strikes. More importnat, he has substantially decreased his Z-Swing% on the pitch. Last season, hitters offered at his sinkers in the strike zone at a 64.1 percent rate, but this season (including his work in relief) they are swinging at it only 56.8 percent of the time in the zone. LeBlanc has also improved his control on his changeup, but when he locates it outside of the strike zone, he’s getting a few more chases, as his O-Swing% on the pitch has increased from 45.3 percent to 47.7 percent.
Since the beginning of May, LeBlanc has been almost unique in his ability to both freeze batters on good pitches and induce chases on bad ones. Last month, he and Zack Greinke were the only qualified starters to be among the 10 pitchers with the lowest Z-Swing% and the 10 pitchers with the highest O-Swing%. During that period, LeBlanc was the only one to make the top three of both lists.
The graph below includes stats for the entire 2018 season, and LeBlanc stands out, along with Greinke, Patrick Corbin and Domingo German, as a master of the freeze and the chase. What separates LeBlanc from the other three, aside from fantasy popularity, is the lack of a double-digit swinging strike rate. I have color-coded the pitchers in the graph for swinging strike rate, and the redder the dots, the fewer the whiffs. LeBlanc’s 8.0 swinging strike rate qualifies him for a very red dot.
While I did say that this version of LeBlanc is different, he has posted a high O-Swing% and low Z-Swing in the same season once before. In 2016, he got chases at a 35.7 percent rate and swings on pitches in the zone at a 64.1 percent rate. That year, however, LeBlanc allowed 14 home runs in 62 innings. He did get plenty of harmless flyballs; according to xStats.org, his popup rate was an above-average 22.6 percent. However, his high drive rate — representative of the most damaging type of contact — was 12.6 percent, as compared to the major league average of 10.0 percent.
What truly makes LeBlanc different this season is that he has made his contact-friendly approach work for him. His popup rate is up to 26.8 percent, while his high drive rate is a modest 8.0 percent. LeBlanc has allowed five home runs in 45 innings this season, and as a starter, he has given up three home runs in 31.1 innings. The sheer volume of popups has helped the lefty post a .271 BABIP on the season, and that in turn has contributed to a .240/.279/.368 slash line for opposing hitters.
To sum up, LeBlanc has been getting batters to leave his pitches in the strike zone alone and go after his pitches out of the zone. Hitters are connecting frequently when they do swing, but in contrast to his past track record, LeBlanc is not allowing them to do much damage, particularly in the form of extra-base hits. He is doing several things at an exceedingly high level except the one thing that fantasy owners typically care the most about.
Now that LeBlanc is stretched out, he should build on his grand total of one win, so he may be better than just a top-60 starting pitcher going forward. His lack of strikeouts will limit his value, but the same can be said of Kyle Hendricks, who also relies on favorable walk, called strike and soft contact rates for success. It’s taken Hendricks a while to get his due, and I suspect that even if LeBlanc continues to thrive, it will take him some time to get recognition as well. While there are good reasons to be reluctant to buy into LeBlanc right now, it’s time to take the gamble on him in deeper mixed leagues.
Watch the early innings of a Michael Fulmer start and you’ll see a damn fine 25-year old power arm evolving into one of the game’s quality workhorses. Keep watching, though, and you’ll find him unrecognizable by the sixth inning. Fulmer has consistently melted down in the latter innings of his starts, yielding a ghastly 4.73 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 66.7 innings. Fulmer actually posted a 2.76 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in April with a lot of the damage coming in his lone blowup outing at Cleveland (3 IP, 9 R… 6 of them earned), but has allowed fewer than three runs just twice in his last seven. The sixth inning has become a clear point of demarcation between Good Fulmer and Bad Fulmer.
Today’s chat transcript include a bunch of Jameson Taillon talk.
| 3:56 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few minutes. In the meantime, if you like DFS, we have a pretty hefty overlay in today’s TDG Invitational – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-daily-grind-bird-lives/
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| 3:56 |
: Presently, a $2 entry is worth $3.10. You may enter twice. It’s on FantasyDraft.
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| 3:56 |
: Hi Brad.
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| 3:56 |
: Hi KIB
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| 3:57 |
: I seem to be stuck in a league where no one trades becaues everyone simultaneously overvalues their high performers (because of course, it will continue) and yet at the same time refuses to devalue their disappointing stars (because of course, it will NOT continue)
Am I going to have to win this thing with WW pickups and then just taunt them all mercilessly? |
| 3:57 |
: Yes. This, unfortunately, is the most common equilibrium status for a redraft league
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• Justin Anderson received the last save opportunity for the Angels on Sunday, walking three batters but nonetheless securing the save. Blake Parker had pitched in the previous days so the speculation was he was still in the lead for saves and that remained true with Parker getting the call last night, pitching a scoreless ninth for his 4th save on the year. Parker walked and struck out a batter and now has a 2.86 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and 3.43 SIERA, which is good stuff considering how his season started. Parker’s SwStr% of 11.5% is behind his impressive 13.8% last year and his 28.9% GB% is far below last year’s mark of 47% which should cause some apprehension for anyone thinking he will run away with this, especially with Mike Scioscia at the helm. The Angels are currently 4 games back in the Wild Card, and if they are in the race in late July it’s possible an outsider will be brought in but among his peers in the pen in LA, Parker looks to be in the lead.
Here is the chat transcript:
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