I love when pitchers add velocity. “Did you hear? Alex Wood is now pumping 94mph!” analysts whisper on Twitter. Crowds gather, eyes piercing a pitcher throwing a fastball that pounds a catcher’s mitt behind a failed swing. The excitement is captivating and calls for everyone’s attention as hype trains leave stations in droves.

This is the fun in fantasy baseball and Zach Eflin is the latest pitcher to get the spotlight. After failed 2016 and 2017 seasons that were so ghastly I feel guilty sharing them with you (5.54 ERA and 6.16 ERA, respectively), Eflin has had a pair of successful starts to launch his 2018 campaign, holding an impressive 0.71 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 27.7% K rate, and 6.4% BB rate in the minuscule 12.2 IP sample. The real story, though, is how he’s bumped his four-seamer’s velocity from the previous 93.5mph mark to 95.5mph this season:

Alright, Zach Eflin has increased his fastball velocity by two ticks. So what?

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With Keynan Middleton and Corey Knebel being activated within the last two days, we fantasy owners needed some clarity as to whether they would be eased back into closing or be given save opportunities right away. Fortunately, both the Angels and Brewers obliged by getting themselves into save situations on Thursday night.

Things started to get real for the Angels when they jumped ahead of the Twins, 6-4, in the bottom of the sixth inning. After Jose Alvarez struck out Logan Morrison to start off the seventh inning, Mike Scioscia played the matchups, bringing in Cam Bedrosian to face Mitch Garver, and then kept him in for switch-hitter Ehire Adrianza. Shohei Ohtani homered in the bottom of the inning, but with the lead at three runs, Scioscia had to plan for a potential save in the ninth inning. He opted to bring Middleton in for the eighth inning, and he worked around two walks and a double to keep the lead at 7-4. Jim Johnson pitched a scoreless ninth inning for his first save of the season.
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You might want to go to the end and stop the videos from autoplaying…

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Anti-DH

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Just a bit outside!

Who did it better, @50cent or @Akbar_Gbaja? pic.twitter.com/7GqbwPe4iF

— MLB (@MLB) May 10, 2018

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5/10/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Producer/Co-Host
• @jasoncollette – Co-Host
• @enosarris – Special Guest from The Athletic

GET THE SLEEPER & THE BUST T-SHIRT FROM ROTOWEAR!

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles

• Carlos Martinez w/lat inj. (3:05)
• Johnny Cueto to 60-day (9:30)
• Matt Harvey to CIN (11:11)
• Eno’s Command piece at The Athletic(16:51)
  • Aaron Nola, Tyler Mahle, Joey Lucchesi

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A week ago, I examined how prospect rankings could add more context to hitter projections. It’s time to take the research a step further by dividing up the prospect list to see if projections can be refined. And they can be.

Initially, I shied away from dividing up the prospect lists because the sample size quickly gets into single digits. I started dissecting the data hoping to keep reasonable sample sizes. I sort of achieved my goal.

I used the same parameters in the last article. I compared a hitter’s Steamer projected OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) from 2010 to 2017 to the actual results in their debut season. To designate prospects, I used Baseball America’s top-100 which has been compiled since 1990. I collected the average and median change in OPS. The median value helps to smooth out any major outliers.

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Some good pitchers, despite being good pitchers, throw bad pitches. And there are bad pitchers, too, who throw good pitches. Both are true, and one could make an argument a Venn Diagram of the two groups may overlap significantly, and that overlapping area is the group of pitchers toeing the line between breaking out and being unusable for fantasy purposes.

It stands to reason, then, that good and bad pitchers could benefit from easing off or completely abandoning their bad pitches. It’s one thing to evaluate a pitch based on its underlying metrics — its swinging strike rate (SwStr%), its ground ball rate (GB%), its velocity, and so on. It’s another thing to evaluate the pitch objectively by looking at its weighted on-base average (wOBA) allowed, which, I hope, in an adequately large sample, can indicate a pitch’s quality regardless of its peripherals. In theory, the larger the sample size, the greater the probability a pitch’s outcomes will converge with its inputs, such that the caveat “regardless of its peripherals” doesn’t actually mean anything. Given enough pitches thrown, the aforementioned underlying metrics will adequately inform the wOBA allowed.

Using PITCHf/x data from the last two years, I looked for (1) good pitchers who throws pitches that allow (2a) extremely bad wOBAs with (2b) unusually low BABIPs. Incurring high wOBAs on low BABIPs is less than ideal; if BABIP is subject to high variance and generally converges on the league average, then a bad pitch being “lucky” by BABIP suggests things will only get worse.

This post was going to be about several pitchers, each with their own problematic pitches, but I became too passionate about this single case. This is about Dylan Bundy, his abhorrently bad four-seamer, his fantastic slider, and how much his pitch selection is suffocating his potential. Ultimately, it’s about adding by subtracting.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Zach Eflin (Philadelphia Phillies) – Out of nowhere Eflin has impressed in his first two starts of the season, collecting 13 strikeouts and allowing just one earned run in 12.2 IP. Normally we would be hesitant to sign up with this small sample for a pitcher with 5.54 and 6.16 ERA seasons behind him, however there has been one startling change: 1.5 ticks of added velocity on his fastball from 93.7mph in 2017 to 95.3mph across his two 2018 starts. He gets the Mets next over the weekend and it may be wise to jump on board early before this turns into an apparent trend.

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Need a power boost? A Yadier Molina replacement? How about a hitter with multi-position eligibility and a good schedule in the short term or a promising bat you can stash for later in the year? You can fill each of these needs (or wants?) off the waiver wire in the vast majority of mixed leagues. Normally, in this column, I set the cutoff for ownership rates at 33 percent, but I’ve dug a little deeper this week. Each of the five players included is available in at least three-quarters of the leagues on each of the major sites.
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