I’m an oracle.
AGENDA
Yesterday featured the drama surrounding the Cardinals bullpen, Wednesday transitioned to another rendition of who will close in Milwaukee. One day after Jacob Barnes wild pitching the tying run in, Josh Hader worked high leverage as usual recording four outs, three via strikeouts, but allowed his second hit of the year. Of course, the hit came in the form of a Tommy Pham home run which prompted a move to Matt Albers to face the two right-handed power hitters in the ninth inning. Albers allowed a single to right field by Marcell Ozuna against the shift, then a single to Jose Martinez before retiring the next two hitters for his first save with the Brewers.
However, nothing seems to be settled here. Fantasy owners still yearn for Hader to ascend to closer, but his ability to work multiple innings seems to prohibit this move. By the way, Hader’s worked 7.2 inning this year with 17 strikeouts. Personally pulling for him to get three more in his next 1.1 innings to reach 20 strikeouts in nine innings. As for Milwaukee, will the next save chance go to Barnes? Albers? Wild cards still exist in the forms of Jeremy Jeffress, who struck out Ozuna on Tuesday, and rookie Taylor Williams. Due to the recent volatility with this situation, those who avoided entering the fray should be relieved. If invested, patience will still be required.
Seguing to Atlanta, no change will be imminent. But, two of the last three outings by Arodys Vizcaino leave his owners hoping for a rebound. For starters, Vizcaino’s yet to register a save this year. He blew the opportunity for a save on Wednesday yielding a home run to Matt Adams. More worrisome, he then allowed a two single to Michael A. Taylor which led to a errant throw to first base in a pick-off attempt moving him to second. Then a wild pitch moving Taylor to third. Thanksfully, Vizcaino escaped the ninth giving up the tying run and not a walk-off, thus avoiding a Carlos Marmol-esque meltdown. Many hoped A. J. Minter could eventually take over the ninth inning. Following a slow start with decreased velocities, Minter looked very good Wednesday striking out the side in the eighth inning. However, like Hader, Minter’s ability to work in high leverage could keep him from the ninth inning. Tracking how Jose Ramirez and David Winkler pitch going forward makes sense, but the Braves need Vizcaino to close and will give him rope to rebound.
It’s easy to overlook the strong start to the year by Edwin Diaz, but he’s been dominant out of the gate. He’s faced 18 batters this year and struck out 12 of them for a remarkable 66.7 percent strikeout percentage. Small sample size should be duly noted, but at age-24 and under the tutelage of Juan Nicasio, Diaz seems more confident translating to a 27.5 swinging strike percentage so far with reduced contact and increased swinging strikes outside the zone. Like any closer, Diaz will suffer hiccups, but he also could be on the precipice of a breakout season.
An encouraging bounce back by Wade Davis who worked a clean ninth with two strikeouts for his fifth save of the year. Working below the radar, Adam Ottavino continues to surge with two more strikeouts en route to his second hold of the season. Ottavino’s moving up in the pecking order with the Rockies riding his 64 percent strikeout rate (16 against 25 total batters faced). Injuries seem to depress Ottavino’s value, but those in leagues which reward holds or strikeout to walk ratios should see if he’s available.
Do not overreact to Nate Jones notching his first save since July of 2016 yesterday. With the team trailing, Jones warmed up to pitch the ninth no matter the outcome and benefited with the save opportunity when his team rallied for two runs off of a fatigued Rays bullpen. Jones issued a walk but struck out two to record the save. It’s still Joakim Soria in the role, but those hoping for Jones to eventually emerge will be encouraged by his initial results on Wednesday. Also, do not forget about Bruce Rondon. He worked the eighth inning and garnered the win. He’s retired all seven hitters he’s faced this year with five strikeouts. Again, small sample size, but intriguing results.
Lost in the sauce of all the Mets saves by Jeurys Familia, he leads the majors with six, is the value for those in head-to-head formats in the forms of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo. Gsellman struck out the side Wednesday night in Miami and he’s whiffed 12 of the 27 batters faced this year. Add in a 61.5 ground ball percentage with a 16 percent swinging strike rate and he makes for a nice pitcher to own as a daily plug in the starting pitcher spot as a reliever. Lugo’s also worked well in the bullpen so far, and Zach Wheeler’s debut should keep Lugo in a relief role. Lugo’s pitched six innings over three appearances giving up no runs, two hits and three walks with seven strikeouts equating to a 0.83 WHIP. Those hoping A.J. Ramos would get the save yesterday, he pitched to the last two hitters, not recording a full inning with a three run lead or pitching with the go ahead run in the on-deck circle. Rules, they’re a killer.
Quick Hits: Brad Peacock took the loss in Minnesota, but the weather affected Houston’s staff with gripping the baseball. Chris Devenski worked in the fifth inning and Ken Giles still seems shaky. This could be a bullpen with turnover in saves as well going forward. Sean Doolittle allowed two walks but recovered with two strikeouts in a 10th inning outing in a tied game. Ryan Madson struggled taking the loss giving up three hits, two walks and two earned runs. Raisel Iglesias looked terrific in a non-save two inning outing striking out four. However, Hector Neris incurred a blown save yielding three hits and an earned run. There’s no immediate replacement available for Neris, but keep tabs on when Tommy Hunter returns to the Phillies. Brad Brach seems to be settling in for the Orioles and recorded his third save. Last but not least, Keynan Middleton upset Elvis Andrus owners, but did finish a 1.2 inning save in Texas, though he did fatigue.
| TM | Closer | First | Second | DL/Minors |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Brad Boxberger | Archie Bradley | Yoshihisa Hirano | |
| ATL | Arodys Vizcaino | A.J. Minter | Jose Ramirez | |
| BAL | Brad Brach | Darren O’Day | Mychal Givens | Zach Britton |
| BOS | Craig Kimbrel | Matt Barnes | Joe Kelly | |
| CHC | Brandon Morrow | Carl Edwards Jr. | Pedro Strop | |
| CWS | Joakim Soria | Nate Jones | Danny Farquhar | |
| CIN | Raisel Iglesias | Jared Hughes | Kevin Quackenbush | David Hernandez |
| CLE | Cody Allen | Andrew Miller | Zach McAllister | |
| COL | Wade Davis | Jake McGee | Bryan Shaw | |
| DET | Shane Greene | Alex Wilson | Drew VerHagen | |
| HOU | Ken Giles | Chris Devenski | Brad Peacock | |
| KC | Kelvin Herrera | Justin Grimm | Brandon Maurer | |
| LAA | Keynan Middletonn | Blake Parker | Jim Johnson | |
| LAD | Kenley Jansen | Josh Fields | Scott Alexander | |
| MIA | Brad Ziegler | Kyle Barraclough | Drew Steckenrider | |
| MIL | Matt Albers | Jacob Barnes | Jeremy Jeffress | Corey Knebel |
| MIN | Fernando Rodney | Addison Reed | Zach Duke | |
| NYM | Jeurys Familia | A.J. Ramos | Hansel Robles | Anthony Swarzak |
| NYY | Aroldis Chapman | David Robertson | Dellin Betances | |
| OAK | Blake Treinen | Ryan Buchter | Chris Hatcher | |
| PHI | Hector Neris | Luis Garcia | Adam Morgan | Pat Neshek |
| PIT | Felipe Rivero | George Kontos | Michael Feliz | |
| STL | Greg Holland | Bud Norris | Dominic Leone | |
| SD | Brad Hand | Craig Stammen | Jordan Lyles | Kirby Yates |
| SF | Hunter Strickland | Sam Dyson | Tony Watson | Mark Melancon |
| SEA | Edwin Diaz | Juan Nicasio | Nick Vincent | |
| TB | Alex Colome | Sergio Romo | Chaz Roe | |
| TEX | Keone Kela | Kevin Jepsen | Chris Martin | |
| TOR | Roberto Osuna | Ryan Tepera | Seung Hwan Oh | |
| WSH | Sean Doolittle | Ryan Madson | Brandon Kintzler |
It’s still far too early to analyze a lot of the metrics we typically use to evaluate players. But underlying skills like SwStk% are meaningful more quickly than strikeout rate because the denominator increases faster. So let’s peruse the American League starting pitcher SwStk% leaderboard and discuss.
Ninjas start off the game here:
Started off the Giants game sitting here: pic.twitter.com/Z8w3ihj1Mw
— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 11, 2018
And end the game here:
Got close but not quite there pic.twitter.com/zmiWi7L7JB
— Justin Mason (@JustinMasonFWFB) April 11, 2018
Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.
It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom.
Mike Minor (Texas Rangers) – I get the feeling Minor needs just one more outing before he’s wildly owned. He’s sporting a 2.53 ERA with a 29.3% K rate thus far, supported by a 3.38 FIP and 12.9% whiff rate. He’s locating his slider well on both sides of the plate, trusting his changeup plenty as both a strike-getter and finisher, while he’s being careful with his fastball to prevent the longball (5.6% HR/FB rate thus far). I can even see Minor improving as he gets more innings as a starter, since 2018 marks the first year he’s been handed the role since the 2014 season. April is all about getting on the right trains early, and Minor could be leaving the station soon.
A few weeks ago, esteemed analyst Ryan Bloomfield of BaseballHQ Tweeted indirectly about late-round lottery picks:
From 2014-17, we've had six players post first-round value with a 195+ ADP:
2014: Brantley, Rendon, DGordon
2015: Keuchel
2016: Villar
2017: JudgeRecent history says 1-2 will do it this year. Who ya got?
— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) March 21, 2018
As a measure of quality control — only because I noticed Corey Kluber omitted from 2014 — I compared his list to my historical average draft position (ADP) data from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) to compile the following unofficial blended list of players drafted outside the top 195 players by ADP* who achieved first-round value:
If closer drama is what you’re looking for, you can find all you need in St. Louis, where the Cardinals are hosting the Brewers. For the second night in a row, the teams went into extra innings after both bullpens floundered in the ninth inning. In Tuesday night’s affair, Bud Norris was entrusted to keep the Cardinals knotted in a 1-1 tie, with Greg Holland apparently being given the night off. Norris yielded a two-out RBI single to Domingo Santana. That set the Brewers up with a save situation, and fantasy owners everywhere waited anxiously to see who would get the call.
It turned out to be Taylor Williams, who had struck out the side in the eighth inning in his second appearance of the season. However, he was removed after walking Tommy Pham and allowing a sacrifice bunt to Greg Garcia. A more familiar face, Jacob Barnes, came in to face Dexter Fowler, and he promptly unleashed two wild pitches that allowed Pham to tie the game.
Read the rest of this entry »
Splitting it up with pitchers and hitters this time around with two of each. Today’s group has just one guy likely to available in a good number of leagues, but the other three guys are definitely in that “should I sell high” level of player. Of course, there’s another whole debate on just how viable the sell high advice is in the first place, but nevertheless, these are guys that I’m more apt to keep anyway as I believe in their talents.
In this Issue:
My frequent attempts to stack Phillies are not working. And I missed the 20-run game! Anywho…
AGENDA
Welcome to the first 2018 edition of the deep league waiver wire! This is where I recommend two players with ownership rates that don’t exceed 10% in CBS leagues. These recommendations are geared toward deep leaguers, which is mostly mono leagues (AL-Only or NL-Only). But, sometimes I feel they are worthy of shallower league consideration, and I’ll note when that happens.