The Daily Grind: Thin Thursday
I’m an oracle.
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
- With the Power to See the Future
1. The Daily Grind Invitational
Congrats to rstar1725. He caught Gary Sanchez’s double-dong along with carrying production from J.D. Martinez, Nick Pivetta, and Kevin Gausman. I’m pretty sure his 170.85 points are the highest total for the season. Leaderboard.
We have a wee little four game contest tonight on DraftKings.
PS – New users who deposit with my referral link get $20 bonus cash. I also get $20. It’s a win-win.
2. Weather Reports
Our wee little four game contest could become a wee little three game contest if the weather report worsens in Boston. For now, it looks like the game will be played with a delay in the middle. Elsewhere, it’s finally starting to warm up. Even Minnesota is nearly up to 50 degrees for a night game. Now point me to the asshole who scheduled an April night game in Minnesota.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: Jose Berrios is the top available pitcher – both in talent and price ($11,000). It’s a steep cost of entry for a guy whose two starts perfectly encapsulate the range of possible outcomes. He began the season with a complete game, 38.9 point performance. The following outing was a 4.2 inning, 10.9 point affair. Consider him volatile opposite a powerful and strikeout prone White Sox offense.
The other expensive guy is Gio Gonzalez ($10,100). The Rockies tend to struggle against left-handed pitching. Gio is left-handed. Advantage Gio. Also, the game will be played at sea level. On the flip side, I kind of like Chad Bettis ($6,000) a lot more than I should. I mean that in a general sense though, I’m hands off versus the Nats.
Unless the forecast changes (and it probably will), neither Rick Porcello ($8,100) nor Sonny Gray ($7,700) are viable tonight. If the rain cooperates, they’re pretty evenly matched dice rolls. I probably prefer Gray.
Nick Tropeano ($5,500) is an easy bargain play tonight. Perhaps too easy. He’s opposed by those stanky Royals.
Stack Targets: Tropeano, Ian Kennedy, Bettis, anybody
4. SaberSim Says…
The Sim says Berrios, Gio, Porcello, Tropeano, and Gray for pitchers. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, and Justin Upton for bats. The entire Twins lineup for values (not kidding, the non-Doziers account for the top seven values).
5. With the Power to See the Future
I built a dope lineup on DraftKings last night. Check me out bragging about it.
The DK lineup I built for tonight is my best one of the season. I’m sure I’ll score like 45 points and finish dead last in everything.
— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) April 11, 2018
And now, the results…
I think 69.75 points is close enough to 45. If I had it to do over, I’d drop 96! percent owned Trout, upgrade Dietrich with the savings, and maybe do a different mix of pitchers with the remainder. It still was the best lineup I’ve constructed this season even if it flopped.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I love DFS but it’s such a cut-throat business if trying to win money. If playing for fun it’s great but without an algorithm it’s hard to compete with the pros (consistently).
I do find these write-ups interesting though and it’s always a fun challenge trying to balance your lineup.
Agreed, you’re unlikely to enjoy yourself if you play to win. The 16% rake alone ensures that it’s impossible outside of lucky GPP wins.
I lucked into 1st place in a GPP a few years ago for a 740X win, and have given it all back and then some since. Agreed, its become to difficult to compete in GPPs where pros enter 150 lineups per night. Especially with the rake increase this year, I just don’t see how its possible to have a shot as an amateur. I do enjoy these write-ups though and will continue to read 🙂
Honestly, I basically have the same story. Won a bunch of money in 2014. Since then, I’ve lost money each season. However, once you subtract out the rakes, I’ve made money each season. That feels like victory of sorts.
Get the frustration but definitely possible to get hits without algorithms or a ton of lineups. I make 1-3 lineups a night by hand just based on my own research (fangraphs, rotogrinders, awesemo, etc…) and have hit 3 15k+ scores already this season playing $50-300 a night. Super high variance and I’m on the right side to start the season, but there are alot of consistent big winners that only make a few lineups a night.
Impressive. Want to write a column? I usually only spike once a year, although that also usually covers my buy-ins minus a few foolish expenditures on large overlays.
I miss when the trick to playing DFS was to pick the best lineup. Now everybody can pick the best lineup. The trick is to pick the best lineup using at least 30% unpopular players and no more than one or two of the top 15 most popular players.
so, if you consistently lose, think you’re an expert, love a line-up and then think it’s a coin flip if you’re going to win money, what’s the point in this? Is there any skill at all?
Absolutely there is skill involved, but the high degree of volatility makes it impossible to measure the talent of a DFS GPP player without performance data from hundreds if not thousands of tournaments.
It’s reminiscent of understanding the skill of a tournament poker player, who very well may play the game using an optimal strategy, but fall victim to one of many chance variables on a given day. The volatility inherent to GPPs is also what makes DFS so alluring – because if everything breaks if your favor, the potential winnings are enormous.
However, the opportunity for success assumes a level playing field. Unfortunately, the playing field in GPPs is completely tipped in favor of professional players who have the capital to enter the maximum number of entries per user in every tournament. In (online) poker, a professional can only play in as many tournaments as he can manage at a given time. With DFS, a pro has the incentive to play in every tournaments, including micro-limits that are aimed at beginners/casual players.
This has created an ecosystem where a few Professional players cannibalize the amateurs. In other words, these casual players have a finite amount of disposable income to spend on a losing proposition and are moving away from DFS as their money dwindles. As a result the larger DFS sites have increased rakes as a way to generate revenue (though I’m not sure DraftKings or FanDuel have have ever been profitable, as a lot of their money has been spent on marketing and legal fees).
In response to this a number of smaller DFS targeting the casual player have propped up over the last year or so. These sites typically offer lower buy-ins, cap the number of max entries per user in GPPs, and offer lower rakes. Naturally, the payouts in these tournaments are significantly lower than those offered on DraftKings & FanDuel and therefore do not have the same allure, but do offer more parity.
The sites have really cut down on the nonsense. For example, sharks can’t use scripts to target weaker players anymore. And the multi-entry fallacy is, uh, a fallacy. Sure, you’re more likely to win with 20 entries than 1, but you’ve also exposed yourself to the 16% rake 19 more times. That means you’re starting 3.6 entries in the hole if you put in 20.
Back when I did this competitively, I would think of everything in terms of entries. A typical GPP win was worth 2.5 entries. So if you win every third night, you gain a decent amount over time. Scale that up to 20 entries and it only takes a few bad weeks to fall into a deep hole. This year, for example, I’ve only placed with one of 10 lineups. I’d be down $1,000 by now instead of just $18.