Archive for January, 2018

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 516 – Houston, We Have a Gerrit.

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January 14, 2018

1/14/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – January 12th, 2018

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January 12, 2018

Let’s talk some baseball!

2:38

Paul Sporer: Wooo, it’s baseball chat time!
2:39

Dan: Heya, Paul! Hope you’re enjoying the off-season. So next year I’m doing my first head-to-head fantasy leagues. What are the major differences, strategy-wise, from a roto? I figure punting a category is less advisable, but what else should I be aware of?
2:41

Paul Sporer: It depends if it’s points or categories h2h. In pts leagues, SPs are usually pushed up a bit. SBs mean less since you can get pts from any avenue and don’t specifically NEED SB.
2:41

Jumanji Laurasia: What are your expectations for Glasnow this season?
2:43

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge fan so he’s gotta show me something. He made some mechanical changes that bore some fruit in the minors, but did nothing for him in his last MLB stint with 15 BB in 7.7 IP.
2:43

Luke: Please help the Giants outfield, please Paul

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Spotting Breakouts: Spring Training Batted Ball Data

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January 12, 2018

With fantasy owner always searching for an edge, I may have found one buried deep in spring training stats. While looking for Yonder Alonso’s MLB.com player page, I noticed he had some batted ball data in the form of GO/AO (groundouts/air outs). In Alonso’s case, his GO/AO value had always been greater than 1.1 until last season when it dropped to 0.87. In the regular season, Yonder’s groundball rate plummeted from 44% to 34%. Yonder admitted to making a swing adjustment and that change should be detectable in spring training. By comparing spring batted ball data, fantasy owners can get an idea of those hitters who may be ready for the flyball revolution.

Note: While flyball and line drive rates are available for comparison, I will only use groundball rate (GB%) because it stabilizes quicker, has less stringer bias (tough call between some line drives and flyballs), and is only one set of benchmarks to memorize.

I’m going to have two foci for this article. Part 1 is all math and disclaimers. It’s the process I used to go from GO/AO values to ground ball rates to launch angles. Part 2 contains the results from Part 1 as a simple procedure for finding launch angle breakouts.

Part 1: Math and Disclaimers Read the rest of this entry »


My Ottoneu 2018 Resolutions

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January 12, 2018

I’m a little late for this kind of post (twelve whole days into the new year!), but as I did last time I want to share some of the resolutions I’m focusing on for the upcoming season of ottoneu (and fantasy baseball in general):

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Pitcher Spotlight: Trevor Bauer’s Third Pitch

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January 12, 2018

Do you believe in Trevor Bauer? The Cleveland pitcher has been a polarizing arm since he’s stepped onto a major league field, never holding an ERA under 4.00 across four seasons of 25+ starts paired with a WHIP above 1.30, but Bauer continues to raise eyebrows with 20%+ strikeout rates and stretches where he flashes Top 20 SP ability. We all want him to succeed, but it seems everyone has a story behind why they simply can’t back him.

I’m not here to preach 2018 Bauer as the potential Top 20 SP that was promised nor that his previous struggles should demote him to the bottom of your draft boards. I’m here to tell you that Bauer may have grown in 2017 more than you realize. Read the rest of this entry »


Byron Buxton’s Second Half Surge

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January 12, 2018

I’ll never be confused for a Byron Buxton fanboy. The tremendous hype of being a top-2 prospect for three straight seasons set outsized expectations that few could realistically meet. Buxton fell waaay short, though. He totaled just 138 games in 2015-16 with a paltry .220/.274/.398 line including 12 HR and 12 SB in the 469 PA. He was even worse for the first three months of 2017, hitting .195/.272/.280 through 78 games (263 PA). From there, he started a six-game hitting streak before going on the DL only to return as one of the league’s best players for the final two months. How’d that happen?

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A Minor Review of 2017: Baltimore Orioles

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January 12, 2018

The Graduate: Trey Mancini, OF/1B: In any other season, Mancini’s rookie season would have received a fair bit of attention but he was contending with the likes of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. The Orioles rookie doesn’t really have any defensive value but he can hit for both average and power. He’ll become even more valuable as he tightens up his strike zone. With Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis in Baltimore, Mancini will be forced to spend more time in left field, which hurts the team. I believe he has a chance to be quite good for the Orioles for a long time.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 515 – Pirates Re-Tooling and Rockies Pen

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January 11, 2018

1/11/18

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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Step Aside, Statistics. It Is Physics Time.

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January 11, 2018

Since the beginning of December I have been working on an updated method to estimate home run probability. This method will be built around a physics model, compared to real life ballpark dimensions, and then evaluated using known sources of error. Especially for the coefficients of drag and lift.

As a first step, I reverse engineered Alan Nathan’s trajectory calculator. I then built my own version of the calculator, excluding wind, but including a few other features that his lacks. You can read about that here and look at my calculator here.

Once I felt I had fully grasped the necessary physics, I set forth and rewrote the calculator as a stored procedure in my database, and I ran it on all of the batted ball data I currently have. I have exported this data and used it to create the viz you see towards the bottom of this article. But first, there are a few things I need to address. Read the rest of this entry »


Sneaky Good Fantasy Team: Atlanta Braves

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January 11, 2018

Team context is undoubtedly a huge factor in fantasy sports as the performance of the whole obviously correlates with the individuals. That doesn’t mean good players don’t reside on bad teams or that being on a 100-win team guarantees a player success, but you’re obviously not entering your drafts with an idea of loading up on Miami Marlins and Detroit Tigers, teams expected to struggle throughout 2018. As the league shifts to more of a haves/have nots phase with several rebuilds under way, you might find yourself crossing off a bunch of “have not” teams only to realize you’re cutting the pool too much to field the kind of teams you want. One team you might consider delving deeper on is the Atlanta Braves.

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