Yesterday, I reviewed my list of 2017 HR/FB rate surgers, utilizing my Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate to identify the guys with significant upside. Today, I’ll recap the list of HR/FB rate decliners. Having not yet looked at my list, I’m nervous the leaguewide spike to record-setting home run numbers is going to make me look silly. Let’s find out!
Starling Marte had an incredibly disappointing 2017 season, fueled by his PED suspension that limited him to just 77 games. While on the field, he had his lowest batting average (.275) since his 47-game debut in 2012 (.257), a solid .333 OBP that wasn’t too far off his .344 career mark, and a career-worst .379 SLG (has a .439 career and was at .456 last year). He did go 21-for-25 on the bases which would’ve netted around 35 had he played his average 568 PA from the last four seasons. He was the 23rd overall pick in NFBC leagues last year, but the rough season hasn’t even cost him a round as he went 35th on average in Justin’s draft and then 45th in my NFBC draft-and-hold from Friday night in Arizona.
This was supposed to be a quick paragraph on Max Fried but it turned into a borderline Quick Look. I was doing an article on pitchers who saw their ERA balloon because of starts at Coors. His non-Colorado ERA dropped stood at 3.09 vs 3.81 which made him seem like a borderline ace. I kept digging and found additional encouraging information. Here are some of my thoughts on my first 2018 deeper sleeper.
First, here’s how industry sources graded him including his pERA grades from his short MLB stint.
| Season | Source | Fastball | Curve | Change | Control |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | BA | 92-93 mph (55) | Plus (60) | Fringe Avg (45) | Below Avg (40) |
| 2017 | pERA (MLB) | 71 | 56 | 55 | 42 |
| 2017 | FanGraphs | 60 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| 2017 | MLB | 60 | 60 | 50 | 45 |
| 2014 | MLB | 60 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
| 2013 | MLB | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
Some definite disparities exist. I will examine each pitch with a video from his September 9th start against the Marlins.
This review was written with permission — I asked, not the other way around — and was not reviewed prior to publication.
There exists several gatherings for baseball enthusiasts every year, including, off the top of my head, MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, SABR Analytics Conference, Saber Seminar and Pitch Talks. However, I can’t name many, if any, conferences that cater specifically to fantasy baseball enthusiasts other than First Pitch Arizona (FPAZ). It’s not that the other conferences wouldn’t benefit fantasy baseball players — surely, they share sharp, illuminating content — but they don’t synthesize it specifically for the fantasy baseball experience.
Brent Hershey, general manager of BaseballHQ, invited me to speak on a panel with Greg Ambrosius (National Fantasy Baseball Championship, or NFBC), Dave Potts (RotoGrinders) and Brian Slack (BaseballHQ) about 2017 average draft position (ADP) musings. For an event in its 23rd year, I could find scarcely any reviews of the conference aside from these testimonials.
Accordingly, I thought it would be worthwhile to allow readers to learn (more) about the event. I’ll provide a brief overview of everything and then break down the programming by day, almost like I’m writing in my diary, except without the anxiety and self-doubt.
FPAZ occurs every year the weekend of the Arizona Fall League (AFL) Fall Stars Game (typically the first weekend of November) in Phoenix, Ariz. Registration costs $249 for early birds and $499 for late birds. The conference spans four days, four nights — for this year, the evening of Thursday, Nov. 2 through the morning of Sunday, Nov. 5 — and includes two tickets (or more, depending on availability) to any AFL games playing that weekend and, once available, all of BaseballHQ’s major publications. It also provides breakfast each morning and a buffet lunch on Saturday on site. Exact programming is liable to change from year to year, but a couple of panels (based on cornerstone BaseballHQ content) likely stay the same. Hotel fare is not covered, but the conference took place at the DoubleTree suites by Hilton, which is where most attendees stayed.
Once upon a time, we basically knew who everybody was prior to the season. Sure, that’s not a foolproof statement. Pitchers are always inconsistent. Some hitters decline due to age or injury. Others rebound due to a dead cat bounce or better health. Rookies are random number generators. But the point stands – players mostly played within the confidence intervals of their projections.
We’d talk about finding the Ben Zobrist or the Jose Bautista as your big opportunity on the waiver wire. You basically had a couple chances at rostering a waiver wire savior – plus some of those random rookies. In recent years, supply has increased. The 2017 campaign featured more free studs than I care to list. We had a new toy every week.
Geez, I could have blindly selected a handful of hitters whose HR/FB rates were due to rise in 2017 and probably would have hit on the majority! As I continue to recap my preseason lists, let’s move on to my 2017 HR/FB rate surgers. I compared my 2016 Statcast-fueled xHR/FB rate to the hitter’s actual HR/FB rate and identified six hitters whose xHR/FB rates were significantly above their actual marks, suggesting serious upside. Let’s see how these hitters performed.
This past weekend, I was in Phoenix for Baseball HQ’s First Pitch forum. It’s an intensive few days of catching up with old friends and focusing on the upcoming fantasy baseball season. There was an underlying theme of the weekend, the fantasy baseball game is being forced to change. Some game facets have experienced some massive adjustments. The following are some of the meta-trends which have quickly popped up over the past few seasons.
Home runs are way up
A few days ago I wrote the following incorrect statement about Carlos Martinez for a 2018 player preview.
His 1.19 HR/9 will likely drop back below the league average.
It was pointed out to me, his home run rate was below league average. I was for sure it was not near 1.20 but I was wrong. Here are the recent league-wide HR/9 values.
2014: 0.86
2015: 1.02
2016: 1.17
2017: 1.27
I remember when the HR/9 hovered around 1.0. Not anymore. Some other pitching stats are feeling the effects of the jump like ERA, but the root cause is more home runs.
The Pirates have done a nice job developing pitchers over the past few years and there are more on the way.
The Graduate: Trevor Williams, RHP: When Tyler Glasnow crashed and burned, Williams stepped up his game and was arguably the third most valuable arm on the staff. The rookie hurler isn’t flashy but he throws strikes, induces a good number of ground balls and threw 150 innings. Traded from the Marlins organization in 2015, his 2.2 WAR surpassed all Miami hurlers in 2017 so it’s probably one trade that The Fish would like back. Williams throws his fastball — which averaged just 92 mph in 2017 — more than 70% of the time but his above-average command of it makes it play up. He sprinkles in a slider and a changeup. Williams has a very basic approach and he’ll need to see his secondary offerings improve (and utilize them more) if he’s going to continue to dominate big league hitters.
The winning formula for 2017 was exceptionally simple. Here’s a bullet list guaranteed to finish second or better. Every single one of us had the opportunity to execute this plan – even most rebuilding owners in keeper formats.
While you may not have had access to a specific player like Altuve or Kershaw, the general approach still holds true. And you could have gotten even more bang for your buck by selecting Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton for a relative bargain.
Now that we know how to win in 2017, how do we apply this information to next season?
Last Thursday, I discussed the 10 hitters I identified in the preseason as potential 2017 BABIP surgers, due to xBABIP marks well above actual marks. Eight of the nine hitters that actually recorded an at-bat enjoyed a BABIP increase. Let’s see how the nine hitters I identified in the potential BABIP decliners list fared.