In case you missed it, the ottoneu arbitration deadline has passed, and off season trading is now available. While teams scramble to begin making moves to build a contender in 2018, let’s take a look at the players who attracted the most arbitration allocations.
There are many paths to success in baseball. Some guys hit the ground running as soon as they’re called up. Others fall on their face immediately and then find their footing and reach or exceed expectations. Then there are those who take a little while. The prospect sheen has worn off and the fantasy community has long since forgotten about them before they finally get it. I mention the fantasy community specifically because as a whole we’re really bad about sticking with prospects.
A player pretty much has to be from that first group of guys who get it immediately or their stock plummets. Part of that is the nature of single-year leagues. We can really only focus on the here and now. Even keeper leagues can’t always wait. In most keepers, you have a limited number of spots or escalating costs meaning you can only hang on so long. Dynasty leagues are different altogether, which is why you get more stories from those leagues about hanging onto the late bloomer for 3-4 seasons before he finally popped. Today I’m looking at a group of once-heralded hitters who’ve yet to click, but still hold at least a flicker of hope. That hope may finally come to fruition in 2018.
A few weeks ago, I began the process of determining an underperformance metric. In the article, I laid out the groundwork determining the drop off in plate appearances (PA) and production (wOBA). With these thresholds, I created several metrics, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. I’m not setting the values into stone yet but I’m getting closer to a solution. I’ve found a few value I like better than others.
In the original article, I found fantasy owners considered a drop in 220 PA from 600 PA (37% drop) and of 0.035 wOBA from .350 wOBA (10%) to be the thresholds. I didn’t mess with these two values. Besides the pair, I wanted to know when both occurred. Additionally, from a discussion in the comments, I found when either PA or wOBA thresholds where met and when both dropped close to, but not over, the thresholds. This value (called Minor Drop) I found to provide the most overall value.
Guess what? Your ottoneu arbitration allocations are due today!
For those of you living in a hole or a shoe or wherever it is people have to live to be utterly ignorant of important world events, FanGraphs hosts a unique fantasy platform called ottoneu. It’s a 12-team, semi-dynasty format with a $400 budget. A key part of the experience is this concept of “arbitration” wherein your rivals can make your team more expensive. If you’d like to know more about arbitration and way too many related strategies, we have an ominbus for that.
I love going to the Arizona Fall League! It coincides with the Baseball HQ First Pitch Forum conference and it’s my favorite trip every year without a doubt. It’s a handful of regular games, the Fall Stars game, and tons of fantasy baseball talk crammed into four days and three sleep-deprived nights. There’s always a group of elite prospects in the league that garner the attention, but perhaps my favorite part is learning about the guys just below that tier. I got my first exposure to guys like Brian Dozier, Mookie Betts, and Cody Bellinger at the AFL.
I didn’t even know of Dozier when I first saw him and while I did know Betts and Bellinger, it was seeing them firsthand that really sold me. I don’t always land on the next big thing when I’m there. I’ve had plenty of misses in my nine years. I was really excited about Grant Desme and Chris Heisey my first year out there. Desme became a priest and Heisey hasn’t really surpassed a 4th OF role. My hitting favorites over the years include Desme, Heisey, Dozier, Betts, Dustin Ackley, Brandon Belt, Nolan Arenado, Mike Olt, Junior Lake, Michael Choice, Rymer Liriano, Brian Goodwin, Albert Almora, Eddie Rosario, Hunter Renfroe, Gary Sanchez, and Harrison Bader. A decent mix of hits and misses.
I’ve done this before — compare similar players, one of whom is “name-brand,” the other “generic-brand,” using blind résumés — as have many others. Ben Kaspick carried the torch a while this year, but he credited Joe Douglas with the idea. So let’s say it’s a group effort to which I’ll contribute once again.
In anticipation of 2018 drafts, I wanted to carry out a “buying generic” style of analysis, borrowing in part from too-early mock draft average draft position (ADP) data. I do not intend to construe the following comparisons as rigorous analysis. I do, however, intend to highlight some potential bargains that, if the too-early mock ADP information is concerned, warrant your attention on draft day.
Max Kepler wasn’t an incredibly popular sleeper heading into the 2017 season, but I was certainly far from the only analyst who was high on the young German. The 24-year-old was coming off a productive yet unspectacular rookie campaign, and was just one year removed from a breakout year in Double-A that made him a fixture on top prospect lists.
Kepler’s 2016 wasn’t eye-popping, but there were many positive signs for the rookie. His power had just started showing up in games in that breakout Double-A season a year before, and now he was taking the next step and hitting the ball over the fence (17 HR in 447 PA). It certainly wasn’t out of the question to predict another step forward in that department, perhaps to a 20-25 HR season in 2017.
He stole just six bases in the majors in 2016, but the fact that he’d swiped 19 bags in the minors the year before was reason for optimism. Furthermore, his .235 batting average was held down by a .261 BABIP, which seemed far too low for a player with pretty good speed.
In short, it wasn’t hard to envision something like .275/25 HR/15 SB if everything came together in 2017. Despite being an unproven option at a deep position, Kepler was drafted in well over half of Yahoo leagues. Like I said, not a super-popular sleeper, but not flying under the radar either.
The Cardinals don’t get a lot of love for their minor league depth but I believe some of their prospects are deserving of more attention than they’ve received so far.
The Graduate: Paul DeJong, IF: No one really saw DeJong coming — although the Cardinals clearly had some hope for him after selecting him in the fourth round of the 2015 draft. He entered pro ball as a third baseman but shifted up the middle in 2017 and thrived. After slugging 22 home runs at double-A in 2016, he slugged 38 homers between triple-A and the Majors in ’17. DeJong, 24, has a chance to be a very good player but he’ll need to tighten up his approach approach at the plate after walking less than 5% and striking out at a 28% clip.
Humans are kind of a mess. One of our many failings as a species is a tendency to oversimplify complex issues. I think of it as the “good versus evil conundrum.” I’m sure academia has a better name for it. Basically, we prefer wholesome heroes and fell villains rather than the equivocating mess we typically find in reality.
Good guys sometimes do bad things. The venerable Abraham Lincoln suspended habeas corpus during the Civil War to deal with dissidents. Most of the so-called evil folk in history were trying to make a better world for themselves. They were the good guys in their story. Our tendency to ignore the gray area between good and evil – i.e. the nuance – can be found in baseball (and fantasy baseball) too.
Thanks for comin’ by!
| 2:36 |
: Can’t believe the season is officially done, but the Hot Stove is already heating up. Let’s talk about it!! |
| 2:38 |
: Would a Rusney Castillo–Matt Kemp trade make sense for the teams? |
| 2:41 |
: I think the Sox want to do something else at DH so while in theory it might line up, I don’t think it’s plays in practice |
| 2:41 |
: Curious if we ever see Rusney get a real shot, though |
| 2:41 |
: Former Austinite here. Better Taco, Torchy’s or TacoDeli? For baseball purposes: Do you think Otani ditches the bat for pitching full time in a few years or could he be the first legit two way player we have seen in a long time? |
| 2:42 |
: I’m ride or die with Torchy’s. I just love it. The tacos I had at Galaxy Taco in San Diego were amazing and better than Torchy’s, but for local, I’m Torchy’s all day. All I’ve read re: Ohtani is that he wants to be somewhere he can hit. Obv can’t play the field every day he’s not pitching, but maybe 1-2x plus his ABs as SP |