Archive for July, 2017

The Prospect Stock Watch: Devers, Whitley, Mahle

Today at the Prospect Stock Watch we take a look at a third baseman that could help Boston during their race for a playoff spot, an emerging pitching stud for the Astros and an underrated arm for the Reds.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox: The Boston Red Sox appear to be on a collision course with the 2017 playoffs but the team’s biggest gap is likely at third base — especially after Pablo Sandoval was recently cut (not to mention the ill-fated Travis Shaw trade). Devers, a 20-year-old prospect, could be the answer for the Sox. He’s advanced for his age and was recently promoted to triple-A from double-A where he was hitting .300 with a .944 OPS. He’s not easily overwhelmed and seems to handle pressure well; his triple-A debut saw him go 4-for-4 with a homer. He has 19 home runs on the season but makes a solid amount of contact with just 55 strikeouts in 78 games (17.2% K-rate). Devers has the raw power to be a 30-homer guy in his prime. He’ll have to keep an eye on his conditioning to remain at the hot corner but he has a strong arm and should stick at the position for a while. He could eventually challenge Mookie Betts for the most talented home-grown player on the Red Sox.

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The Daily Grind: It’s Back!

Welcome back from the All Star Break. Now it’s business time. Oops, that’s the entirely wrong sort of business.

AGENDA

  1. This Ain’t the Home Run Derby
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Field of Streams: Episode 280 – Look At The Brains On Brent Suter

Episode 280 – Look At The Brains On Brent Suter

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Todd Frazier’s inevitable trade, when Yoan Moncada might arrive, Matt’s failed call for help and the return of Adam Conley, Mike Clevinger’s success, Clayton Kershaw’s matchup against the White Sox, Zach Davies’ home/road splits, Nick Williams’ grand slam, Dylan being terrified of the Dodgers, Francisco Liriano’s case of unstoppable force vs. immovable object, Matt’s feelings on Delino DeShields, and revisiting the preseason bold predictions.

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Diving into Statcast Sprint Speed

In April, Statcast quietly introduced a new speed metric dubbed Sprint Speed. It wasn’t until late June that Baseball Savant made the leaderboards publicly available and we now have data going back to 2015. I have been meaning to dive into the data to find any incremental value, and finally the day has come. From the leaderboard page, the metric is described as thus:

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard.

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Bullpen Report: July 16, 2017

It’s officially that time of year. A deal was struck between the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals on Sunday that sent relievers Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nats in exchange for Blake Treinen and two prospects.

That the Nationals made a move for bullpen help doesn’t come as a surprise, but Doolittle and Madson weren’t necessarily the most obvious candidates. Now that the deal is done, the question is: who’s going to serve as closer for a Nationals bullpen that has struggled so mightily this season?

According to SB Nation’s Federal Baseball, Nationals manager Dusty Baker was non-committal:

“I’m not sure. I’ve got to talk to [A’s manager] Bob Melvin. Like I said, both of them have closed, I know both of them have had some arm problems in the past, so it could be both of them, you know what I mean, so we’ll see.”

Although Baker wouldn’t name an official closer, it would appear that the job will go to one of the two newly-acquired relievers from Oakland.

Doolittle is seven years younger than Madson, and he has the strikeout stuff more typical of a closer. He’s striking out nearly 40 percent of batters faced this season, and his career mark is north of 30 percent. He’s always been exceptional at limiting walks, too, as his 4.8 percent career walk rate indicates. He’s also managed to limit homers to the tune of a career 0.78 HR/9 despite being a fly ball pitcher.

When he’s healthy, Doolittle is an elite reliever, but arm injuries have limited him to just 64 innings since 2014. He has spent time on the disabled list this season with a strain in his throwing shoulder.

Madson, meanwhile, has pitched at least 60 innings in each of the last two seasons and already has 39.1 innings this season. This year, he’s featuring a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate, and he’s struck out 20.8 percent of batters he’s faced in his career. Like Doolittle, command has never been an issue, as his 7.0 percent career walk rate indicates. Perhaps most impressively, Madson hasn’t allowed a home run per nine innings or worse in any single season since 2006, when he was still a starting pitcher. His consistently excellent home run prevention is made possible by his sterling 48.4 percent career ground ball rate.

Since Doolittle is the more electric of the two, he will probably get the first shot at save opportunities. His recent arm issues and flyball tendencies, however, make him the riskier option. Should Doolittle falter, or if the Nationals decide to go the safer route from the start, Madson is a reasonable ninth-inning option who could do well if called upon. Stay tuned for updates on how this all shakes out.

On Saturday, Alex Claudio picked up his third save of the season for the Rangers. With a 1-0 lead in the ninth, right-hander Jose Leclerc walked the leadoff hitter Lorenzo Cain on four pitches, and so the lefty Claudio was summoned for Eric Hosmer. He struck out Hosmer, then got Salvador Perez to hit into a game-ending double play. On Sunday, Claudio pitched a scoreless bottom of the eighth in a tie game. Claudio has emerged as a possible closer for the Rangers, as Al Melchior pointed out on Friday. He doesn’t boast exceptional strikeout stuff, but he does have a terrific 63.5 percent career ground ball rate that allows him to limit homers and induce weak contact.

The Cardinals are going to a closer by committee, but it didn’t work in their or Brett Cecil’s favor on Sunday. Cecil blew a one-run lead as he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk against the Pirates, and it’s a full-blown red situation in St. Louis. Seung Hwan Oh has struggled all season, especially against lefties, who have a .447 wOBA against him, so Cecil was brought in to face a lefty-heavy part of the Pirates lineup and couldn’t get the job done. Anchored by a strikeout rate near 40 percent, former closer Trevor Rosenthal has the best peripherals in the Cardinals ‘pen, so he should get a consistent opportunity to close at some point in the near future. He’s the most desirable Cardinal to target for now. Despite Sunday’s failed opportunity, Cecil may also be worth an add for those in need of saves, as he’s clearly in the mix for save opportunities moving forward. Cecil boasts solid peripherals in his own right.

Other closer activity: Aroldis Chapman notched his ninth save of the season. Kenley Jansen picked up his 23rd save in 1.1 innings of work. He struck out three. Zach Britton pitched a scoreless inning with the Orioles down six runs. He allowed a hit and a walk. Ken Giles allowed a run on a hit and a walk but picked up his 20th save of the season. Hector Neris allowed a couple of bloop singles to open the ninth with a three-run lead, but he closed things out with a strikeout and two popups. It was his eighth save. Justin Wilson struck out one in a perfect ninth inning in a tie game at home. David Robertson also struck out one in a scoreless ninth inning in a tie game at home. Edwin Diaz needed just 12 pitches to strike out all three batters he faced against the White Sox in the 10th inning to pick up his 16th save of the season. Bud Norris escaped a bases-loaded, one-out situation with the tying run on third base. He allowed a run but notched his 14th save.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
ARI Fernando Rodney Archie Bradley J.J. Hoover
ATL Jim Johnson Jose Ramirez Sam Freeman Arodys Vizcaino
BAL Brad Brach Zach Britton Mychal Givens
BOS Craig Kimbrel Joe Kelly Matt Barnes Carson Smith
CHC Wade Davis Koji Uehara Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS David Robertson Tommy Kahnle Anthony Swarzak Nate Jones
CIN Raisel Iglesias Michael Lorenzen Drew Storen
CLE Cody Allen Andrew Miller Bryan Shaw
COL Greg Holland Adam Ottavino Jake McGee
DET Justin Wilson Alex Wilson Shane Greene
HOU Ken Giles Will Harris Michael Feliz
KC Kelvin Herrera Joakim Soria Mike Minor
LAA Bud Norris Cam Bedrosian David Hernandez Huston Street
LAD Kenley Jansen Pedro Baez Luis Avilan
MIA A.J. Ramos David Phelps Kyle Barraclough
MIL Corey Knebel Jacob Barnes Carlos Torres
MIN Brandon Kintzler Taylor Rogers Matt Belisle Glen Perkins
NYM Addison Reed Paul Sewald Jerry Blevins Jeurys Familia
NYY Aroldis Chapman Dellin Betances Adam Warren
OAK Santiago Casilla Liam Hendriks Daniel Coulombe
PHI Hector Neris Pat Neshek Luis Garcia
PIT Felipe Rivero Juan Nicasio Daniel Hudson
STL Seung Hwan Oh Trevor Rosenthal Brett Cecil
SD Brandon Maurer Brad Hand Ryan Buchter Carter Capps
SF Sam Dyson Hunter Strickland George Kontos Mark Melancon
SEA Edwin Diaz Nick Vincent Tony Zych
TB Alex Colome Tommy Hunter Brad Boxberger
TEX Matt Bush Jose Leclerc Alex Claudio Keone Kela
TOR Roberto Osuna Ryan Tepera Danny Barnes Joe Smith
WSH Sean Doolittle Ryan Madson Matt Albers Koda Glover

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 478 – Baseball’s Back!

7/15/17

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 18, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER18!

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Leading Off: Question of the Day (6:00)

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Roto Riteup: July 15, 2017

He’s back!

Mike Trout has returned after a 39-game absence, collecting a hit and stolen base (which included a headfirst slide into second) to continue what has been his best season yet… which is absolutely insane.

On the Agenda:

  • Potential Trade Candidates Pitch Well
  • Sanchez Bounces Back
  • The Knuckler is Fluttering
  • Harper and Puig Double Up
  • Kevin Gascan Returns
  • Other News

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Bullpen Report: July 14, 2017

We may have just taken a four-day break from games that count, but closer drama did not take a vacation. The trade market heated up over the All-Star break, and while no closers were dealt, there were plenty of reports and rumors regarding closer trades.

None was more attention-grabbing than Jon Heyman’s report for FanRag Sports that the Dodgers called the Orioles to check on Zach Britton‘s availability. While Heyman noted that the Orioles have not yet made Britton available, the possibility that he could head out of Baltimore to be Kenley Jansen’s set-up man is exciting from a fan’s perspective, but it’s a fantasy nightmare.
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Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – July 14th, 2017

2:32
Paul Sporer: My SP rankings are updated, let’s talk some baseball!!

2:32
Bob: Hey Paul!  Thanks for the rankings update.  I was offered Yu for my GCole and Arrieta in a QS league.  Take it?

2:33
Paul Sporer: No problem! I might do that in a shallower league, but it’s steep

2:33
Hans Kluber: Why did Danny Duffy’s RoS suddenly change dramatically for ERA?

2:33
Paul Sporer: Not sure

2:33
brad: Thanks for sp rankings and back to back chats.  How come Rg hasn’t been doing rankings on other positions?  thanks.

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Starting Pitcher Rankings Update – July

Here is my latest starting pitcher rankings update! Keep in mind that this is a narrower focus than just “rest of season” as I’ll be updating these again in mid-to-late August for the stretch run. Pitching is just too volatile to have confidence in a single ranking set for more than 4-6 weeks at a time. The tiers are what’s important.

I’ll reiterate again that the Must-Starts aren’t automatically the best pitchers, but rather the guys that you can’t sit with any confidence (they don’t have a platoon split or home-road split and their track record speaks more than the first three months of this season. Please leave your questions and comments below!

Previous Updates:

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