Can you guess which player does not belong in this picture?
Third NL @esurance #ASG ballot update:
1B Zimmerman
2B Murphy
3B Bryant
SS Cozart
C Posey
OF Harper, Blackmon, Heyward pic.twitter.com/ACIlCObiGt— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2017
I’m going to continue looking at my recent pERA rankings after writing about starters the last couple of days. Today, I am going to examine the top non-closers. These guys may not be closing now but are showing some promising skills to open the season.
Note: For reference, here are the articles in which I created the framework for the metric (full list).
James Hoyt (2.12 pERA): In a handful of innings, Hoyt has a 43% K% and a 6% BB%. Insane. These raw skills are being masked by a 1.5 HR/FB and .400 BABIP which has pushed his ERA to 4.08.
Velocity changes between seasons, or even games, are well reported on thanks to Jeff Zimmerman’s velocity tracking document.
Fastball Velo changes, ’16 adjusted up
C Anderson +2.4
Estrada +1.8Cain -3.2
Santiago -2.8
Adleman -2.4https://t.co/Qr33MW0GYN— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) June 7, 2017
Velocity is very important to the success of pitchers – as I’ve written about with respect to my Stuff metric, and as highlighted in this great article by Mike Fast from 2010, every little bit of velocity matters. Within pitchers – those who lose velocity become shells of their former selves – like Eno Sarris wrote about Matt Harvey before this season started. While a Velocity drop between games is an indicator that someone might be hurt, a velocity drop within a game might indicate that a pitcher is becoming fatigue – a big sign of possible future injury.
This week’s Prospect Stock Watch celebrates the amateur draft – which kicks off later today. Let’s have a look at three early draft picks from 2016 and catch up on their exploits.
Mickey Moniak, OF, Phillies: We can’t review the 2016 draft without checking up on the first player selected. This 19-year-old outfielder isn’t producing eye-popping numbers just yet but he’s holding his own in low-A ball. Although he’s hitting just .266, he projects to develop into a .280-.300 hitter with gap power and maybe 10-12 home runs. He has good speed that helps him play excellent center-field defence but he’s struggled on the base paths with just five steals in nine tries. He’s probably about three years away from the Majors at this point when he might push Odubel Herrera to a corner outfield spot.
The MLB Draft begins tonight which has absolutely no bearing on this column. Tune into MLB Network at 7pm ET.
AGENDA
Episode 271 – Spend My Mitch Moreland
The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!
In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss the MLB Draft, the Brewers’ youth movement, Matt getting to say “told you so” in regards to Matt Andriese’s injury, the White Sox pounding lefties, Hawk Harrelson’s relationship with Carl Yastrzemski, the emergence of Whit Merrifield, Daniel “The Iron Eagle” Gossett Jr., Andrew Cashner continuing to not strike anyone out, Daniel Robertson being a real person, Matt calling Dylan crazy for not being excited about Jordan Montgomery, and the legend of Sidd Finch.
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Last week, I discussed the two month BABIP overachievers, identifying names whose marks significantly exceeded my xBABIP. Now let’s take a look at some of the hitters whose high BABIP marks are actually validated by xBABIP. These are the guys who at first glance, your knee-jerk reaction might be to expect heavy regression, but the underlying skills that drive BABIP suggest there has been little fortune involved. That’s not to say that the hitters are going to sustain such skills, but that looking backward, the results have been legitimate.
Hope your weekend was as good as this:
The Sunday turn up is REAL! pic.twitter.com/KF3wxNd8yW
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) June 11, 2017
The Roto Riteup is ready to jump into the work week like:
Leapfrog gone wrong! pic.twitter.com/7pLUZt4bNZ
— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) June 11, 2017
The weekend’s most momentous closer development did not take place on the mound or in a manager’s office. It happened in the shower.
Koda Glover tweaked his back while bending over to pick up his body wash, but he kept the incident to himself until after Saturday’s game against the Rangers. In the interim, he was brought in to the preserve the Nationals’ 3-1 lead in the top of the ninth inning, but before he even got his first out, he allowed a Shin-Soo Choo solo homer and a game-tying RBI double to Nomar Mazara. Read the rest of this entry »
6/11/17
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
Strategy Section: Interesting SPs
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