Archive for May, 2017

Buying Generic: An Underrated Comp for a Budding Star

As a RotoGraphs reader, I’ve always enjoyed Joe Douglas’s “Buying Generic” series. In past articles, he has compellingly compared “generic” players like Ryon Healy, Logan Forsythe, and Justin Bour to “brand name” ones like Jake Lamb, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana.

The fantasy relevance of the exercise is obvious: Buying generic allows owners to acquire players cheaply and with relative ease, instead of paying a premium (whether in a trade or in a draft or auction) for a brand-name player.

For today’s comparison, we’re going to analyze two players who have played in parts of the last three seasons, but neither has eclipsed 350 plate appearances in any one year. Both appear on their way to full-time jobs in 2017 and beyond.

Here’s how Mr. Generic and Mr. Brand Name have fared since 2015:

Mr. Generic vs. Mr. Brand Name (2015-2017)
Name PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+
Mr. Generic 438 11.0% 29.9% .262 .350 .486 .223 .346 .357 124
Mr. Brand Name 715 10.6% 23.9% .258 .343 .497 .239 .298 .355 125

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The Daily Grind: Suddenly Bereft of Stars

Words. What are they good for? Conveying thoughts.

AGENDA

  1. And Now Harper?
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Hitters to Use
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Brad Johnson Baseball Chat – 5/30/2017

Here’s today’s oddly scheduled baseball chat. Sorry left coasters.

10:29
Brad Johnson: Hey folks, you have me until my tires are done rotating

10:30
Brad Johnson:

Bryce Harper Suspension Length?

1-5 games (50.8% | 63 votes)
 
6-10 games (46.7% | 58 votes)
 
Over 10 games (2.4% | 3 votes)
 

Total Votes: 124
10:30
Brad Johnson: I bet throwing the helmet adds 5 games to whatever it would have been

10:31
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: DJ LeMahieu or Jose Ramirez at second base?

10:31
Brad Johnson: Easily Ramirez

10:31
Brad: When do you think you will get invited into labr or tout wars?

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MASH Report: Alex Wood, Danny Duffy, and Mike Trout

Attempting to write a MASH report is like being asked to replicate the Mona Lisa. I can’t hope to do any better than what the legendary Jeff Zimmerman has done in the past – but let me try to put my own spin on things.

Alex Wood

There are a few things that come to mind when you hear about a shoulder injury in a pitcher. The first is usually the rotator cuff strain. If your pitcher was super in to dirt bikes – it might be a separated collar bone. Worse off – you might hear about a labral tear in the shoulder. However, it’s SUPER rare to hear about an SC joint strain.

To orient you to a bit of anatomy, the collar bone links your sternum to your shoulder blade via two joints – the acromioclavicular joint, and the strenoclavicular joint. If you’ve heard about someone landing hard and suffering an AC sprain – that’s a sprain of the end of the collar bone closest to the shoulder joint. The other end, and what Alex Wood is dealing with, is the SC joint.

I’ve checked with Baseball Injury Consultants, and did some rather extensive Googling, and I can’t seem to find any other cases of SC joint inflammation in pitchers. Internet, I’m sure you’re about to prove me wrong. I would expect this to be the type of injury that makes pitching very painful, but once the inflammation dies down, he’ll be no worse for the wear.

Danny Duffy

The Royals Danny Duffy has been very solid this season, pitching to the tune of a 3.54 ERA, and a 3.43 FIP. On Sunday, he went on the DL with an oblique strain that he suffered while covering first base on a grounder. The Royals have publicly stated that he could miss 6-8 weeks – and before I got into my own analysis, I found this great tweet by Shaun Newkirk.

An average of 44 days due to oblique strains is a long time to miss. I dove into the scientific literature on the importance of the obliques during pitching, and you can see why it takes so long for arms to return from this injury.

During the pitching motion, the obliques are at near 100% of their capacity (Watkins et al., 1989). These muscles are hugely responsible for torso rotation – a massively important part of the pitching motion. Without healthy obliques, velocity will fall, and pitchers will lose their effectiveness. Unless the pitcher is 100% healed from this injury, the chances are their performance will suffer.

In particular, the non-dominant side oblique is more active during motion (so for Duffy, this would be his right side). This is responsible for the torsion required to throw hard, but also, to protect the lower back from injury during pitching.

If this is a severe injury, don’t expect Duffy back until he’s completely healthy – and the process could start all over again if he is rushed back for a rehab assignment before he’s completely healthy.

Mike Trout

Having me write about a hitter is like having Roger Ebert write about a Cubs game – if he was a really marginal movie critic. Pitching has been the focus of my writing, but what does science know about the UCL tear that Trout suffered while sliding in to second base on the weekend?

This UCL is a lot less severe than the UCL associated with Tommy John Surgery – however, this ligament serves a very similar role in stabilizing the lateral bending of the thumb (compared to the elbow). This vaglus/varus motion, when in extreme force levels, can lead to a rupture of the ligament.

In the orthopaedic world, a complete tear of the thumb’s ulnar collateral ligament is referred to as a Stener lesion, or “Game Keeper’s Thumb”. Go and Google why it’s called Game Keeper’s thumb, I’ll wait.

Welcome back. Pretty messed up, eh? A review by Ryu et al., in 1995 showed there were very inconsistent results when athletes pursued non-operative treatments of this injury – and that surgical options were preferred for long term success.

This injury is associated with a very weak pitch and painful grip – which would significantly impact Trout’s ability to grasp the bat. For return to play times – the news isn’t great, but it’s not as bad as it could be. In a review by Schroeder & Goldfarb (2015), they advised a 6 to 12 week recovery time, including rehabilitation, from surgery.

For the fantasy baseball player, losing the first overall pick is a huge kick in the groin. Hopefully you can tread water before getting Trout back for September and the playoff run.

I’m going to try and do a bi-weekly MASH report from here on out – if you have any players you’d like to have reported on – hit me up on Twitter: @DrMikeSonne


Who is Being Shifted More and Less Versus 2016?

In early February, I used our Splits Leaderboard to develop the latest xBABIP equation, the first of which that accounts for defensive shifts. I then talked quite a bit about defensive shifts over the years and how its usage has risen significantly since 2012. So let’s take a look at the fantasy relevant names that have faced a defensive shift far more often than last year, as well as those that have seen fewer of them during their plate appearances.

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Roto Riteup: May 30, 2017

Walking into work after a long weekend like:

 

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Prospect Performers: The AL West

At the beginning of the 2017 season, I wrote pieces reviewing the potential impact rookie hitters in each league for 2017. Today, we continue a semi-regular review of how those players are actually performing. Previously we reviewed:

AL East
NL East

1. Jharel Cotton, RHP, A’s: When the season began, Cotton appeared well-positioned to play a significant role on the A’s starting staff. To date, he’s thrown the fourth most innings on the staff but has also received a demotion to (and subsequent return from) triple-A. A lack of command has hurt the young hurler and he’s given up too many base runners. Cotton will no doubt continue to get opportunities as the year progresses so if things finally click for him he could still be an asset.

2. Francis Martes, RHP, Astros: Martes reached triple-A at the age of 21 but he’s had a rough season so far. He’s walking more than seven batters per nine innings — resulting in 24 free passes in just 29.2 innings. When he can find the plate, though, he’s exhibiting swing-and-miss stuff as witnessed by his 36 strikeouts. The Astros are one of the strongest teams in the American League but the team’s weakness so far has been the starting pitching depth. Once this young hurler finds the plate on a more consistent basis, he’s going to get a shot.

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The Daily Grind: In Memoriam

The doggo had a bad night so I’ll be working quickly today.

AGENDA

  1. This is Why…
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. SaberSim Says…
  5. TDG Invitational Returns!

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Field of Streams: Episode 267 – The Rollercoaster That Is Chase Anderson

Episode 267 – The Rollercoaster That Is Chase Anderson

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Matt calling Adrian Gonzalez’s first home run, stepping away from Matt Garza at the right time, Matt being intrigued by Randall Delgado, Dylan not believing in Oregon native Sam Gaviglio, the Mariners still not hitting lefties, Matt still trying to get on Twitter, Matt being offended by Dylan not being able to pronounce Wojciechowski, the return of Vance Worley, and breaking down what happened to Baseball-Reference page sponsorships.

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Roto Riteup: May 29, 2017

I typically start my Roto Riteups with a funny comment, GIF or combination of both. However, if you’ll let me, I would like to start this RR with something a bit different.

I joined the US Army following 9/11. I enlisted at the age of 17 and went active duty out of high school. The Army taught me many things about honor, duty, loyalty, and courage, but most importantly introduced me to some of the bravest men and women I have ever had the pleasure to know.

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