Earlier in the year, I introduced the newest versions of batter xBABIP and xHR/FB. Finally, after many, many requests, I share with you every batter’s 2016 marks that I have calculated. Enjoy!
3/14/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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Leading Off: League Draft Results
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play
Strategy Section: AL LABR Breakdown
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We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season!
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
March Updates:
February Editions:
We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season!
We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:
There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.
February Editions:
The 2017 World Baseball Classic has been riveting thus far. Many of the teams are loaded, and the players and fans have been wildly into it. Saturday’s game between the Dominican Republic and the United States was perhaps the greatest heavyweight match-up the game has ever seen. The lineups on both sides were absurd, and the game lived up to the hype. The Dominicans overcame a 5-0 deficit to win in dramatic style, 7-5.
The Dominican lineup could be the best ever, but the United States gives them a run for their money. Since the majority of FanGraphs readers are, presumably, American, and pulling for Team U.S.A., it struck me that it would be fun to analyze the roster from a fantasy perspective. Although many on the roster are undisputed stars, there are overrated players, players to avoid for other reasons, and potential bargains mixed in. Let’s get right into it, analyzing the starting position players on Team U.S.A.: Read the rest of this entry »
Last week, we took a look at some pitchers whose Fantasy-irrelevant stats in 2016 suggested they pitched better (or worse) than appeared. There was some reason, beyond our need for something to write about, to think this approach might actually identify under- and overvalued players. There’s no reason at all, other than intuition, to think that the same approach works with hitters. But let’s take it for a spin and see how it handles.
To review the underlying theory and the stats in question: the harder a batter hits a ball, the likelier he is to get a hit. So the less frequently a pitcher gets hit hard, the better he will do. But sometimes, the inscrutable gods of baseball decree otherwise, so that weakly-hit balls go for hits, popups go for home runs, and guys who throw effective pitches have nothing to show for it. Vagaries, however, balance out in the long run. So last week we looked for pitchers whose Batting Average on Balls in Play and Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio were immoderately high, even as their Hard-Hit Ball Percentage was low, on the theory that the universe would right itself this time around. And, of course, we looked for pitchers whose stats suggested the same outcome in the opposite direction. Read the rest of this entry »
It has become fashionable to complain about two catcher leagues. In the last week alone, four people have made offhand comments to me, assuming I agreed with them. I’m sure more people will find the time to reach out and gripe now that I’ve written this article. And if it’s not clear, I’m very much a fan of the two catcher setting.
The classic argument against two catchers is that the position is too shallow. Even in a 12-team format, some fugly players will be rostered. That… is the point. One catcher leagues are boring – everybody has a good catcher? What’s the fun in that?
The double catcher opens considerable strategic variance. Here are a few of your options.
We’re winding down our comparison of the Pod Projections and Steamer projections and will finish things off by moving on over to starting pitchers. What do we care about most? ERA, of course. So we’ll begin by checking in on a smattering of fantasy relevant hurlers in which I’m forecasting a significantly better ERA than Steamer. Interestingly, it appears that I’m simply far more bullish than Steamer in general, as I’m forecasting a lower ERA for 141 of the 161 starters that I project! That’s pretty crazy.
3/13/17
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
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LABR links:
Leading Off: Question of the Day
Strategy Section: AL LABR Breakdown
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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As Paul Sporer noted last week, stolen bases are getting expensive in this year’s drafts. With players like Jose Peraza and Jarrod Dyson shooting up draft boards, it’s clear that fantasy owners are more than willing to pay for steals in 2017.
Personally, there is nothing I love more than a good bargain. I spent a good two minutes doing price comparisons on hot dog buns at the grocery store yesterday, before finding some off-brand buns for just 89 cents on the bottom shelf. I don’t care who you are, you don’t need to be spending big on hot dog buns.
This is the same approach I take to speed-only players in fantasy baseball (great transition, Scott). I don’t like to spend on speedsters in my leagues, partially because I know steals are probably going to be available on the waiver wire. There’s usually a handful of undrafted bench players or minor leaguers who end up swiping a significant number of bags.
Last year, Travis Jankowski stole 30 bases in 383 plate appearances. Keon Broxton swiped 23 in 244 PA. Dyson was another example, stealing 30 bases in his 337 PA. The aforementioned Peraza picked up 21 steals in 256 trips to the plate. It’s no coincidence that Dyson, Peraza and Broxton were the top three players Sporer mentioned last week when discussing rising ADPs.
I got to thinking about who those guys will be next year; the players who go undrafted in fantasy leagues this year, but end up in high demand in 2018 due to gaudy smallish-sample steal totals. I identified three players to keep an eye on for steals as the season progresses, or perhaps slot into a reserve or minor-league spot, if your league has those.