Statcast data is now everywhere and everyone seems to be using it in some form. While detailed pitch information has been available via Pitchf/x, full season batted ball data was missing. Now the batted ball data is leading to some interesting findings, but it’s not a true answer. So far, 12.6% of the batted balls is missing data. I wouldn’t see this as an issue if the missing data was evenly distrusted, but it is biased. I have made a simple correction to the data and now how have available corrected overall data and leaderboards.

I went over the procedure I used to correct the data in this previous article. Here is a quick review of the problem and corrective procedure:

• 12.6% of all the batted balls are missed by Statcast. No bunts or foul balls were counted though.
• Most of the missing data are weak infield popups and groundballs. As a general rule, weak, groundball hitters are missing the most data. For pitchers, groundball pitchers are obviously the ones with more data.
• I found the average value for all detected batted balls fielded by each position.
• If the data is missing, I replaced it with the calculated league average values.

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Many times in fantasy baseball owners fall victim to name brands. While having familiarity with a player is necessary, often we don’t dive deeply enough into a player’s performance to get a clear idea of how much more valuable he is than his peers. Due to this, we will often pay more for something than we otherwise would if we were truly aware of it’s value. Today, I want to talk about the 2B position and one name brand that will likely cost much more in your annual Ottoneu auctions, or in trades, than a much cheaper generic option.

Any guesses? While the two players are strikingly similar, Mr. Name Brand certainly played more, with about 120 extra PAs over our and more power than Mr. Generic. However, the price difference is immediately evident. Across Ottoneu leagues, owners paid $16 more for our name brand option for roughly equal production across the board. The K/BB numbers are nearly identical, with both producing good power and higher than average BABIP results. While Mr. Name Brand bested Mr. Generic by 11 points of wOBA, xOBA (a statcast based  equivalent for  wOBA based on expected batted ball results) actually had our generic option with a 12 point advantage.  Final answers? Going once… twice? Read the rest of this entry »

Today we have a thought exercise to, uh, think about.

The Setting

Yoan Moncada is the number one prospect in baseball. Manager John Farrell goaded the Boston front office into rushing Moncada to the majors where he promptly flopped in epic fashion. The Red Sox recently traded him to their bleached counterparts in Chicago, a possible sign they’ve cooled on their former top farmer. Or maybe they just liked Sale that much.

It seems plausible Moncada will return to the majors in 2017. The White Sox have Brett Lawrie and Tyler Saladino sharing second base, but neither player can block a prospect of Moncada’s ilk. And with Todd Frazier almost certain to be traded this winter or during the season, Lawrie and Saladino can always slide to the hot corner.

Prospects with Moncada’s talent and proximity to the majors are usually stashed in all but the shallowest (or thin benched) re-draft leagues. He’s already owned in your keeper and dynasty leagues.  Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s take a short break from my Pod Projection recaps (only two left!) to review another Steamer and I, where I identify players I’m far more bullish or bearish on than Steamer is. Carlos Rodon was a heavily hyped prospect after being selected as the third overall pick in the 2014 June Amateur Draft. He jetted through the minors so quickly, you would swear he never actually made an appearance. In fact, he recorded a total of just 34.2 minor league innings before making his Major League debut in 2015. It was an excellent debut, at least from an ERA perspective, so expectations were high.

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Redraft leagues are the gateway drug of fantasy baseball. Like other gateway drugs, you could totally stop playing at any time. If you wanted to. You don’t, but you could, and that’s an important thing to know. Once you join a competitive keeper or dynasty league, you’re well and truly hooked. Maybe you can go cold turkey. Maybe…but why? Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, FanGraphs made public its splits leaderboard, which the authors have been able to test and refine in private for some time now. It’s an incredible tool. If you haven’t checked it out, you should. If you haven’t thanked Sean Dolinar for building it, you should. (If you have any preliminary feedback, leave it in the comments and I’ll pass it along.)

There are a seemingly infinite number of ways to cross-cut data in endlessly fascinating ways. Splits by handedness, situation by outs, situation by leverage, situation by defensive alignment (shift or no shift!) — the list goes on. But the thing that most interested me immediately was understanding the implications of more granular batted ball data.

Two tools I once refined/created — xBABIP and xISO — rely almost exclusively on Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) batted ball data. Yet they were limited in their capabilities because of the limited nature of the data: we knew each hitter’s contact quality (hard/medium/pull) and contact direction (pull/center/oppo) but now how the trios intersected. But, ah, the splits leaderboard.

The following tables depict the batting average on balls in play (BABIP), isolated power (ISO), and home runs per fly ball (HR/FB) in 2016 by each cross-section. Read the rest of this entry »

Early in 2011 I was training for a job at MLB.com when I got a call from David Appelman that changed my life. He gave me my dream job that day, a full time job writing and editing at FanGraphs. I’ll forever be grateful to him.

It’s not only the job that Appelman gave me that day. He rewarded me for taking a risk. I haven’t taken enough of those in my life, especially in my work life — I’ve worked mostly for three companies so far. By giving me what I had desired lustily for years, he helped alter my internal calculator.

Now risk meant opportunity. Now change was worth it. I am not the same now.

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The leader is good, the leader is great. We surrender our will as of this date.

Rich Hill’s renaissance has been remarkable in so many ways. Despite justified skepticism entering 2016, he finished the season as the 14^th most valuable starting pitcher, according to our auction calculator. And he did so tossing just 110 innings over 20 starts. He made contributions in ERA, WHIP, and when he pitched, strikeouts, that were so substantial, that he ranked among the back end of #1 or the very best of #2 fantasy starters. And no intractable three-eyed blister with its own Instagram account could stand in his way.

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The reviews are almost complete and now we jump on over to my actual starting pitcher Pod Projection recaps. Today, I’ll start with Jeff Samardzija, whose ERA ballooned by nearly two runs in 2015. With a move back to the National League and a pitcher friendly home venue, he was as in good of a situation as possible to drive a rebound. Let’s see how my Pod Projection turned out.

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Stephen Strasburg plans on decreasing his slider usage. The impact on his fantasy value could be huge. First the facts. The stated reason for the change is to stay healthier.

Stephen Strasburg added a new slider to his repertoire this past season, and while the pitch was devastatingly effective, it may have led to the elbow injury that ended the Nationals right-hander’s season prematurely and forced him to miss the postseason.

Strasburg, who left the mound on Sept. 7 with what would later be diagnosed as a slight tear in his right pronator tendon and weakness in his flexor mass, believes the issue developed during the season in part because he became too reliant on the slider. After it was virtually not used at all previously, the slider became Strasburg’s second-most-used pitch in 2016 (behind his fastball).

While the exact medical implications won’t be known for a while, Strasburg knows his body the best and any move to stay healthy is good news.

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