Three years ago, I introduced the best pitcher expected walk percentage formula yet. The formula uses a pair of strike type rates found at Baseball-Reference.com, including a pitcher’s in-play strike percentages, as well as his overall rate of strikes thrown. The beauty of the equation is that it uses components that stabilize quickly, as the rates are per pitch, rather than per inning or per batter. The equation isn’t nearly as strong as my xK% one, as it’s clearly missing sequencing, which may or may not be a consistent skill. But it’s pretty darn good and the best we have at the moment.

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The Roto Riteup advocates for the day after Mother’s Day to be a national holiday, as millions of children around the world are nursing hangovers after being forced to spend time with family. Not this gentleman, of course, because my mother is a delight and this is published in a public forum.

On the agenda:
1. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

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We don’t always post Bullpen Reports on a Sunday but when we do, we talk about the Reds.

• Tony Cingrani threw 1.2 innings for the save on Friday, his first of the season. However, Bryan Price hasn’t suggested that it means Cingrani will now be the closer. In today’s game – Blake Wood blew a 4-3 lead in the seventh inning so I wouldn’t count on future saves from him in the near future. Ross Ohlendorf was called on in the eighth, and he gave up the go ahead run on a Jonathan Lucroy homer. Ohlendor stayed in to throw a scoreless ninth and finished the day with two innings, four strikeouts, three baserunners and the loss.  Although Price hasn’t named Cingrani (or anyone for that matter) the closer, I’m going to move him to the top spot for now, with knowledge that this situation remains hilariously fluid. After throwing two innings today it’s likely that Ohelndorf will get Monday’s game off as well, so expect Cingrani to see the opportunity if one arises.

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Today’s Roto Riteup wishes good things for all the mothers out there.

On the agenda:
1. The Struggles of David Price
2. Various News and Notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options

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Today’s Roto Riteup is sponsored by bottom shelf 2013 Chilean merlot, best served chilled.

On the agenda:
1. Welcome back Jung-ho Kang
2. Injuries Galore
3. Various News and Notes
4. Streaming Pitcher Options

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Agend

1. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
2. Daily DFS
3. SaberSim Observations
4. Tomorrow’s Targets
5. Factor Grid

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I’ve been asked a couple times in the last few weeks and I finally got around to figuring it out, so here we have it — the current results WITH quality starts included:

10-6 record
3.33 ERA
8.2 K/9
3.0 K/BB
1.26 WHIP
12 quality starts

This was a tougher week to find guys to recommend. A lot of the guys I liked on Tuesday starts — Adam Conley, Juan Nicasio and even maybe Colin Rea — early in my research were busted by off days later in the week. Anyway, here are this week’s recs (with opponents’ team wRC+ in parentheses), so hit me with your questions and qualms in the comments below:

RHP Jose Berrios – 38.8% ESPN – v. BAL (112), @CLE (100)

I realize we’re still in the midst of the Berrios hype train, so if he’s not available in your league — and given the comments I read on Twitter from fantasy owners, I think he still could be — my next pick was going to be Dan Straily, who gets the Pirates at home and the Phillies on the road for the Reds next week.

The stuff has been good for Berrios — 13 strikeouts in 9.1 innings — but the command has been spotty. It was probably somehow more true in his first start where he walked two batters than it was when he walked five Astros last time out, as his since-demoted catcher John Ryan Murphy was actually ejected in the middle of a plate appearance for arguing how badly the strike zone was being called that night. Opposing starter Dallas Keuchel seemed to agree. Anyway, Berrios showed he had a sense of humor on the next pitch, as he threw an identical curveball for a called third strike with new catcher Kurt Suzuki back there.

This’ll be a big week for the young righty, as both of these offenses are solid. If it was the O’s in Camden Yards I might have skipped him altogether, but at home I think he’s got a fighting chance to get a win/quality start. Read the rest of this entry »

As we mentioned on a recent episode of OttoGraphs, May is traditionally the month where contenders and re-builders start buying and selling with gusto in ottoneu. With that in mind, I want to highlight a handful of players I would be looking to acquire as a contender and with a look to the future, specifically in ottoneu points leagues (although most of these players offer value in the rotisserie leagues as well).

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I was beaten to the punch on Jesse Hahn by colleague Rylan Edwards earlier this week. I’ll second Edwards’ endorsement of Hahn, and he also highlights Henderson Alvarez as a viable deep league add. Like Hahn, Alvarez is a low punch-out pitcher, and I’ve opted to highlight a high-strikeout reliever who will help pick up the slack for the starting pitcher duo. Joining the reliever is a minor league first baseman whose path is looking clearer every day and a Swiss Army Knife whose ownership is criminally low. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 151 – Live With Alex Chamberlain

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Brad Johnson are joined by Alex Chamberlain in a live recording to discuss the unfortunate Garrett Richards news, theories on statistical regression, Dylan not being up on Scooter Gennett’s status, loving Jonathan Villar, an overload of good pitching options, Mark Trumbo’s interesting matchup, Drew Pomeranz as the ultimate fade, a tough day for Field of Streams picks, Alex’s obscure Twitter handle, and The Daily Grind Invitational.

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