2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – Third Base
Below is the Third Base installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.
Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base
In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
We can be reached on twitter as follows:
Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
Some Takeaways:
| Name | ELIG | Justin | Joe | Tom | Trey | Split | Otto. | AVG. | (+/-) | |
| 1 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | $47 | $42 | $42 | $44 | $5 | $29 | $44 | $15 |
| 2 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | $42 | $37 | $36 | $38 | $6 | $21 | $38 | $17 |
| 3 | Miguel Sano | 3B | $30 | $41 | $39 | $28 | $13 | $12 | $35 | $23 |
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | 3B | $19 | $22 | $27 | $19 | $8 | $29 | $22 | -$7 |
| 5 | Todd Frazier | 3B | $23 | $20 | $22 | $21 | $3 | $14 | $22 | $8 |
| 6 | Kyle Seager | 3B | $24 | $19 | $20 | $19 | $5 | $17 | $21 | $4 |
| 7 | Maikel Franco | 3B | $17 | $20 | $12 | $14 | $8 | $7 | $16 | $9 |
| 8 | Evan Longoria | 3B | $20 | $12 | $12 | $14 | $8 | $27 | $15 | -$12 |
| 9 | Mike Moustakas | 3B | $10 | $9 | $13 | $12 | $4 | $6 | $11 | $5 |
| 10 | Justin Turner | 1B/3B | $10 | $11 | $9 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $9 | $4 |
| 11 | David Wright | 3B | $6 | $11 | $8 | $3 | $8 | $16 | $7 | -$9 |
| 12 | Nick Castellanos | 3B | $8 | $3 | $7 | $6 | $5 | $7 | $6 | -$1 |
| 13 | Pablo Sandoval | 3B | $1 | $4 | $10 | $3 | $9 | $19 | $5 | -$14 |
| 14 | Chase Headley | 3B | $2 | $2 | $8 | $3 | $6 | $10 | $4 | -$6 |
| 15 | Trevor Plouffe | 1B/3B | $4 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $1 | $5 | $3 | -$2 |
| 16 | Luis Valbuena | 1B/3B | $1 | $3 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $5 | $2 | -$3 |
| 17 | Jake Lamb | 3B | $1 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $5 | $1 | -$4 |
| 18 | Rafael Devers | 3B | $0 | $3 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 19 | Ryan McMahon | 3B | $0 | $3 | $0 | $0 | $3 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 20 | David Freese | 3B | $1 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 21 | Travis Shaw | 1B/3B | $1 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 22 | Eric Jagielo | 3B | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total $ | $268 | $267 | $272 | $235 | ||||||
| Total Ranked | 20 | 20 | 18 | 17 | ||||||
Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. Players not listed are likely post-auction pick-ups ($1 players). The line between a $1 player and a post-auction pick-up is very small.
Each owner has different biases to certain positions. To help illustrate these we’ve included “Total $” and “Total ranked” at the bottom of the table. We hope this helps you pick apart some different owner strategies/biases.
The (+/-) column may be helpful in determining which players may generally be overrated by your league mates.
Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades
Is there a reason Machado is not on this list?
These rankings attempt to rank each player only once, at the position they are most valuable. Since Machado is SS eligible, he’ll be high on the SS list, coming soon.
I’m assuming then that Matt Carpenter is listed as 2b
Yep, that’s right on Carpenter.
I assume, along with Carpenter, Rendon is also listed as 2B?
Yes, Rendon is also 2B elig
Where’s Kris Bryant?
Bryant has OF eligibility, so he will be ranked there. Same issue as Carpenter (2B) and Machado (SS).
How did you determine that OF had a lower replacement level than 3B?
It has to do with how many players are owned/started at each position. In an ottoneu league, roughly 18 3B will be owned (enough to account for weaker platoon players and the top backups), but with five OF spots, teams must own 60 outfielders at minimum, and more like 80-90 to account for platoons and important bench players. That’s where we set the replacement level for each position: at the 18th 3B and roughly the 90th outfielder, and looking at either the points scored in past seasons, or the projected points for this year, we can see what level of points are expected at replacement level. What we’ve tended to find is that the bar for OF is lower, which like I mentioned has a lot to do with needing such a large number of OF to be rostered in the ottoneu format.
It also touches on the balance of ottoneu vs MLB – in real baseball there are roughly 30 starting 3B, with about 18 owned in ottoneu, or 60%. But MLB teams have about 90 starting OF, we already need to start 60 at the bare minimum, or 66%. So, at OF, we’re digging deeper into the pool of available players, often owning upwards of 80% of the league’s starting outfielders.
IDIOTIC!!!!!!!!
Oh, wait, you have to do a very little bit of more work to put Bryant, Machado, Carpenter in at both positions.
Apologies if you see this as laziness. It really has nothing to do with more work. It has to do with relaying a false sense of value. A player like Bryant, Machado, Carpenter, et al is inherently more valuable because they are eligible at lower replacement level positions. We are trying to show (with our rankings) which position a player with multiple eligibility should be played at in order to use him most effectively.
Joey Gallo on the OF list?
Yep!
The plan is to (at the end of all rankings) release 1 list with every player we’ve ranked. This will include all eligibility. The general hierarchy we are using for these lists is SS>2B>C>OF>3B>1B. So for Machado, we could give you a 3B rank ~$37 (if he didn’t have SS) however, since he can be played at SS he is a mid-40 dollar player because that position has a far lower replacement level than 3B.
Due to this, I don’t (personally) see a ton of value in knowing what Machado’s value is as a 3B only player, because if I own him (even if playing him at 3B) I could trade him as a $46 SS to some other team.
I absolutely love these lists and the work you guys do. But if we are going to cater these articles to Ottoneu leagues, it would really help to have them published before the Jan 31st keeper deadline.
I know this may be difficult, and the info is still relevant for draft day. This is just more of a suggestion for future years on how it would be more helpful.
Good feedback, especially considering the Ottoneu keeper deadline comes early (1/31).
I’m actually thinking/wondering if it’s because they don’t want to spoon feed everyone. They’ve already leveled the Ottoneu playing field some by introducing some great tools. Also, these guys play Ottoneu. They may want to keep some of their secrets to themselves until after the deadline. OR they could just be very busy during cut season. THANKS GUYS!!
Hahaha. Well James, if we really wanted to keep our secrets we wouldn’t tie a value to our names, now would we 🙂
Touche, Joe. All the more reason for me to believe you’re up to somethin, you sneaky devil. I’m holding you to that $41 Sano.
Love,
jim
Loving this series. For people playing in a league with ottoneu scoring but lacking the robust keeper aspect of ottoneu, would the absence of the year-to-year player retention affect the player pricing listed above?
No, our prices as listed are our true $ values for each player without regard to inflation.
Instead of complaining about the rankings or the setup, just appreciate the effort these guys put in to giving you data which you can use however you like. They are four regular guys providing the FanGraphs readers a service for free.
Having shared a league with two of the contributors, I know I disagree with their value system & the methodology, but don’t crap on their efforts. The “Otto” column has a broad sample size so you can make use of only that if you like. If you read the articles you likely take away something that you can use so use it and save your brilliant insights for your own advantage.
Thanks for the support! Totally agree – you don’t have to agree with our rankings or even our methods but our goal is just to provide our way of doing things. If that helps you gain some edge you can use with your own method, great! And if not, everyone is free to use a different strategy – at least this article could give you some intel on what your opponents might be thinking.
As a Red Sox fan I hope Tom is most correct on Pablo Sandoval, but secretly I wonder if Pablo gave Tom a bribe for his optimism.