2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – RP
Below is the Relief Pitcher installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.
Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield
In the context of Ottoneu, perhaps rankings are a misnomer, because you really want to know the dollar value each player is worth. We’ve included this information for our benefit. In all, these rankings should help to give you a spread of four dollar values for each player, as well as a comparison to average prices (post-arbitration, pre-cut deadline) within the Ottoneu FGpts universe. Each player’s Ottoneu eligibility (5GS, 10 appearances) is included as well, though players are ranked at their most valuable position. If you have questions on a specific ranking, or a question for a specific ranker, feel free to let us know in the comments.
Consider this your very early, subject to change, Ottoneu pricing cheat sheet.
We can be reached on twitter as follows:
Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber
Key:
Split – Difference from highest to lowest $ value
Otto.– Average price across Ottoneu FGpts leagues
AVG. – Average $ value from the four of us
(+/-) – Difference between Ottoneu average price and our average $ value
Some Takeaways:
| Rank | Name | Justin | Joe | Tom | Trey | Split | Otto | AVG | (+/-) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Craig Kimbrel | $24 | $17 | $24 | $25 | $8 | $23 | $23 | $0 |
| 2 | Aroldis Chapman | $27 | $16 | $25 | $22 | $11 | $21 | $23 | $2 |
| 3 | Kenley Jansen | $25 | $18 | $21 | $20 | $7 | $17 | $21 | $4 |
| 4 | Dellin Betances | $19 | $17 | $16 | $18 | $3 | $10 | $18 | $8 |
| 5 | Andrew Miller | $18 | $18 | $14 | $18 | $4 | $8 | $17 | $9 |
| 6 | Trevor Rosenthal | $17 | $14 | $18 | $17 | $4 | $14 | $17 | $3 |
| 7 | David Robertson | $19 | $14 | $16 | $17 | $5 | $13 | $17 | $4 |
| 8 | Wade Davis | $19 | $14 | $17 | $16 | $5 | $9 | $17 | $8 |
| 9 | Zach Britton | $18 | $16 | $15 | $17 | $3 | $8 | $17 | $9 |
| 10 | Cody Allen | $17 | $14 | $14 | $17 | $3 | $9 | $16 | $7 |
| 11 | Ken Giles | $16 | $14 | $14 | $15 | $2 | $7 | $15 | $8 |
| 12 | Carter Capps | $16 | $15 | $16 | $12 | $4 | $5 | $15 | $10 |
| 13 | Mark Melancon | $17 | $10 | $14 | $13 | $7 | $10 | $14 | $4 |
| 14 | Jeurys Familia | $16 | $10 | $12 | $12 | $6 | $6 | $13 | $7 |
| 15 | Brad Boxberger | $10 | $11 | $16 | $10 | $6 | $8 | $12 | $4 |
| 16 | Sean Doolittle | $13 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $4 | $8 | $11 | $3 |
| 17 | Will Smith | $11 | $10 | $12 | $8 | $4 | $4 | $10 | $6 |
| 18 | Hector Rondon | $14 | $7 | $8 | $8 | $7 | $7 | $9 | $2 |
| 19 | Glen Perkins | $10 | $6 | $8 | $7 | $4 | $11 | $8 | -$3 |
| 20 | Roberto Osuna | $4 | $7 | $10 | $8 | $6 | $5 | $7 | $2 |
| 21 | Jake McGee | $9 | $5 | $5 | $9 | $4 | $8 | $7 | -$1 |
| 22 | Santiago Casilla | $7 | $7 | $8 | $6 | $2 | $6 | $7 | $1 |
| 23 | Jonathan Papelbon | $8 | $4 | $8 | $6 | $4 | $10 | $7 | -$3 |
| 24 | Francisco Rodriguez | $8 | $3 | $8 | $7 | $5 | $7 | $7 | $0 |
| 25 | Hunter Strickland | $8 | $6 | $5 | $7 | $3 | $4 | $7 | $3 |
| 26 | Jason Grilli | $9 | $4 | $6 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $1 |
| 27 | Carson Smith | $4 | $6 | $7 | $6 | $3 | $4 | $6 | $2 |
| 28 | Joaquin Benoit | $0 | $6 | $10 | $6 | $10 | $8 | $6 | -$2 |
| 29 | Arodys Vizcaino | $3 | $6 | $8 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $1 |
| 30 | A.J. Ramos | $8 | $5 | $3 | $6 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $1 |
| 31 | Darren O’Day | $2 | $6 | $8 | $6 | $6 | $5 | $6 | $1 |
| 32 | Huston Street | $7 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $4 | $10 | $5 | -$5 |
| 33 | Shawn Tolleson | $6 | $5 | $5 | $5 | $1 | $4 | $5 | $1 |
| 34 | Pedro Strop | $5 | $4 | $5 | $4 | $1 | $5 | $5 | $0 |
| 35 | Sergio Romo | $5 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $2 | $7 | $4 | -$3 |
| 36 | Drew Storen | $2 | $3 | $4 | $7 | $5 | $8 | $4 | -$4 |
| 37 | Luke Gregerson | $0 | $5 | $6 | $5 | $6 | $8 | $4 | -$4 |
| 38 | Brett Cecil | $7 | $3 | $1 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $4 | -$2 |
| 39 | Ryan Madson | $0 | $5 | $6 | $4 | $6 | $4 | $4 | $0 |
| 40 | Tony Watson | $3 | $3 | $2 | $4 | $2 | $6 | $3 | -$3 |
| 41 | Yimi Garcia | $4 | $2 | $4 | $2 | $2 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 42 | Kevin Siegrist | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $0 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 43 | Brad Ziegler | $2 | $3 | $5 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 44 | Kelvin Herrera | $3 | $1 | $4 | $3 | $3 | $6 | $3 | -$3 |
| 45 | Liam Hendriks | $4 | $1 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $0 |
| 46 | Koji Uehara | $2 | $1 | $3 | $4 | $3 | $10 | $3 | -$7 |
| 47 | Mychal Givens | $1 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $2 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 48 | Shawn Kelley | $4 | $3 | $1 | $2 | $3 | $4 | $3 | -$1 |
| 49 | Justin Grimm | $5 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $4 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 50 | Nate Jones | $3 | $1 | $3 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $2 | $1 |
| 51 | Silvino Bracho | $3 | $3 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $2 | $1 |
| 52 | Fernando Rodney | $2 | $1 | $3 | $1 | $2 | $13 | $2 | -$11 |
| 53 | Kevin Jepsen | $0 | $2 | $4 | $1 | $4 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 54 | Chris Hatcher | $3 | $0 | $3 | $1 | $3 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 55 | Greg Holland | $2 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $1 | $17 | $2 | -$15 |
| 56 | Joakim Soria | $0 | $0 | $4 | $2 | $4 | $6 | $2 | -$4 |
| 57 | Corey Knebel | $3 | $0 | $2 | $1 | $3 | $4 | $2 | -$2 |
| 58 | Daniel Hudson | $0 | $2 | $2 | $1 | $2 | $5 | $1 | -$4 |
| 59 | Mark Lowe | $0 | $1 | $3 | $1 | $3 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 60 | JJ Hoover | $0 | $1 | $3 | $1 | $3 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| 61 | Jordan Walden | $0 | $1 | $2 | $1 | $2 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 62 | Pat Neshek | $0 | $0 | $3 | $1 | $3 | $5 | $1 | -$4 |
| 63 | Brandon Maurer | $0 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 64 | Oliver Perez | $2 | $0 | $2 | $0 | $2 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 65 | Chris Withrow | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 66 | Jonathan Broxton | $0 | $0 | $3 | $0 | $3 | $6 | $1 | -$5 |
| 67 | Leonel Campos | $2 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $2 | $3 | $1 | -$2 |
| 68 | John Axford | $0 | $0 | $2 | $0 | $2 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 69 | Aaron Barrett | $0 | $1 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $1 | -$3 |
| 70 | Tony Zych | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| 71 | Shae Simmons | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $0 | -$4 |
| 72 | Shawn Armstrong | $0 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $3 | $0 | -$3 |
| 73 | Rafael Martin | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 74 | Zack Weiss | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 75 | Kaleb Fleck | $0 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 76 | Adam Ottavino | $0 | $1 | $0 | $0 | $1 | $4 | $0 | -$4 |
| Total $ | $479 | $385 | $491 | $447 | |||||
| Total Ranked | 54 | 63 | 72 | 66 | |||||
Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. Players not listed are likely post-auction pick-ups ($1 players). The line between a $1 player and a post-auction pick-up is very small.
Each owner has different biases to certain positions. To help illustrate these we’ve included “Total $” and “Total ranked” at the bottom of the table. We hope this helps you pick apart some different owner strategies/biases.
The (+/-) column may be helpful in determining which players may generally be overrated by your league mates.
Joe works at a consulting firm in Pittsburgh. When he isn't working or studying for actuarial exams, he focuses on baseball. He also writes @thepointofpgh. Follow him on twitter @Ottoneutrades
Only Tolleson from Rangers bullpen? Surprising.
Gotta win some games to get those valuable saves 🙂
To be fair though – I think RP in ottoneu is a lot about role. If someone in the Rangers ‘pen takes over a reliable role they could have some value. But right now it’s not clear to me which guy that would be, if any. Certainly worth keeping your eye on the situation to see if someone emerges.
3 Yankees in the top 5… interesting.
so how does one justify having fewer players worth at least $1 than RP slots in the league? 5 slots/team * 12 teams = 60 slots. does that imply justin believes so teams would be better served leaving a RP slot empty?
in ottoneu points even bad reliever put up 5 ppip which is more than the great majority of starters.
I’m not sure what happened with the rankings, it looks like a few guys I have flagged as RP I missed somewhere along the line (specifically Pomeranz, CJ Edwards, and Velasquez). I use exactly 60 RP as my baseline, not because I think teams should only roster 5 RP, but more to represent how replaceable those 50-70th ranked RP truly are. It’s not worth spending $2 on a RP when you can find six other guys equally good for $1.
alright that makes sense. i didn’t think about those swingmen getting cut off the RP ranks. thanks for the response.
Based on the consensus rankings, we have 64 RP as worth $1.0 or greater, and that sounds about right to me. I use four fewer as my baseline, but somewhere around 60-66 RP is justifiable as far as I’m concerned.
Is Cishek really that bad, that even the bonus points for saves can’t carry him to some non-zero value? Did I miss him?
Can’t speak for anyone else, but I think Benoit will end up closing (hence my high ranking on him). And if Cishek isn’t closing he’s just another crappy reliever.
What about David Hernandez?
Hernandez is a guy I would consider watch-listing. He has to prove healthy in that PHI bullpen, but he’s also given up 1.50 HR/9 over the last two seasons, which is death in Ottoneu.
Love pieces like this. I’m obsessed with dollar valuations… I’d be interested to hear from Joe why he noticeably allocates less resources (total dollars) to the RP position. Curious if this is a conscious decision or just the result of something in his valuation process.
I think relievers are so volatile, it may make sense to discount the position or allocate less there. But don’t want to assume that’s what’s happening here.
Hey Tanner, I have definitely pushed paying for RP in Ottoneu, but was surprised to see my total value be substantially lower than the group. I definitely agree on the volatility point. I think that’s part of it. I typically take a dollar or two off what I think is a fair price due to increased variance. It’s a position I am far less willing to “stretch” my values at.
However, I think 2016 is a bit of an oddity as well. Generally I see far less separating the top 12 than I do most years. I see one large tier. Several of the top 5 feel riskier than they have in the past (Jansen, Miller, Kimbrel, Betances, Chapman). I had Chapman in the low 20s pre domestic violence, and his price is purely a function of risk with innings that I think he’ll miss. I had Betances $2 higher and Miller $4-$6 higher before Chapman joined NY. Can definitely see $20 prices on Jansen and Kimbrel – maybe that’s where I’d stretch my value slightly. After I fall beyond that tier, I think the volatility you mentioned is pretty spot on. I’d almost rather go cheap than own any of the guys I have around $11-$8.
My league uses Ottoneu scoring or a variation of it in an ESPN league. Every year I find a RP that has SP eligibility and plug him in to get extra points. Last year I struck gold with Osuna, year before that with Betances.
Who is it going to be this year? I see Pomeranz, Colome and Warren are guys that were used in an RP role last year and have retained SP eligibility this year. Is there anyone else? Any minor leaguers that will come up like Osuna did?
Not exactly what you’re looking for, but Duffy could be great in relief and will be starter eligible.
if i go into my auction with robertson/casilla/romo/smith/grilli do I need to be worried about my RP at all? I feel pretty comfortable rolling with that group, but validation (or vice versa) is always helpful
I think that’s a solid group, I’d probably just try to bring in one more solid closer so that Romo/Smith/Grill can share your last 2 spots. Plus having 6 will let you swap a guy in and out on days when he’s not likely to pitch. I think you have a solid starting point though for sure.