2016 Bold Hitter League Leaders – A Review

Every season, in addition to posting my standard bold predictions, I up the ante with my bold league leaders. If you thought nailing a bold prediction was tough, the bold league leaders is even more difficult! Just getting one right is worthy of celebration. So let’s see how I did this year. Refresh your memory of my initial reasoning behind my choices here.

American League

Batting Average – Manny Machado

Machado finished with a .294 average, ranking 17th among qualified American league batters. This represented only a minor improvement from last year’s batting average. The thinking here was that he makes excellent contact, hits for a ton of power (more homers = more hits!) and just needed some BABIP luck to challenge .300. Unfortunately, he continued to hit too many pop-ups and while his BABIP did jump back above .300, it wasn’t nearly high enough. If he ever gets that pop-up problem under control, he’ll become a true four-category monster.

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Home Runs – George Springer

Maaaaan, I totally forgot who I had chosen and really thought Trumbo was a possibility (who I now see was selected below as the RBI leader instead). Springer ended up performing as expected, but performing as expected in a year where homers were out of control wasn’t good enough. His 29 long balls ranked just tied for 26th in the AL! Last year, 29 homers would have been the 13th highest total. He’s got more home run upside if he could get his fly ball rate higher.

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RBI – Mark Trumbo

While I was wrong here (Trumbo finished with 108 RBI, ranking in a tie for sixth), the spirit of this prediction was correct — that he was due for a rebound, perhaps a significant one. His HR/FB rate jumped 10 percentage points to set a new career high, and it wasn’t just the friendly confines of Oriole Park at Camden Yards that drove the spike. He’s going to regress next year, but I still think he’s a 20% HR/FB rate guy, meaning he should once again exceed the 30-homer plateau.

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Runs – Justin Upton

This prediction was based upon Upton hitting second all year, but an early slump pushed him down in the order and cost him plate appearances and run scoring opportunities. He finished with just 81 runs, which ranked in a tie for 33rd in the league. It’s actually pretty amazing how his end of season performance ended up given how terrible he was to open the season. It might make him undervalued next year if former owners still have a bad taste in their mouths from that poor start.

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Stolen Bases – Byron Buxton

Buxton opened the season with a starting job and was a popular sleeper, but couldn’t hold the job when he flopped offensively again. He then returned in September and killed it, ensuring he’ll once again find his name on every sleeper list imaginable, guaranteeing he won’t go cheaply. Unfortunately, he was too busy hitting homers, and swiped just one base. For the season, he finished with just 10, surprisingly hitting the same number of home runs. I think next year the steals are a lot more bankable than the homers.

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National League

Batting Average – Nolan Arenado

Arenado’s batting profile is very similar to Machado’s — excellent contact for a guy with immense power. But Arenado also has Coors as his home, which is the best park for BABIP. Amazingly, Arenado failed once again to push his BABIP above .300 and it has now sat between .293 and .296 for three of his four seasons. Lots of fly balls and an extreme pull tendency no doubt play a role in the mediocre BABIP marks. Like Machado though, I still think he has a big batting average season in him one of these years.

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Home Runs – Domingo Santana

This was the first really pathetic selection, but it was primarily due to injury, which limited Santana to just 281 plate appearances. He still managed to hit 11 homers for a 23 homer pace in 600 plate appearances. Of course, that still wouldn’t have come close to the league lead. It wasn’t for a lack of power though as his HR/FB rate was an elite 27.5%. Instead, it was a lack of fly balls, as his fly ball rate was a pathetic 25.6%, far too low for a power hitter. His SwStk% also suggests upside in his strikeout rate. If he seems healthy heading into next year and has a job, he’ll be a sleeper once again.

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RBI – Randal Grichuk

Two bad choices in a row! Grichuk played himself out of a job and even found himself in the minors for a period, yet still finished with 24 homers and 68 RBI. What really killed him is his BABIP normalizing, which exposed his high strikeout rate and caused his batting average to collapse. I think the 2016 version is a lot closer to the real Grichuk than 2015.

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Runs – Jason Heyward

Funny. I opened my explanation with:

Though you never know with Joe Maddon, Heyward should remain near the top of the stacked Cubs lineup.

He didn’t remain near the top of the Cubs lineup, but it wasn’t because of Maddon’s zany decision making process. It was because Heyward simply forgot how to hit. He’ll be a difficult one to peg a projection for next year as we haven’t heard about any serious injury that could have been blamed for the poor performance. Aside from little things here and there, I’m at a loss.

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Stolen Bases – Jonathan Villar

I got one right! I got one right! I remembered this prediction all season long, but sadly didn’t put my money where my mouth was as Villar did not find his way onto my teams. The one lesson to take away from Villar’s season is not to discount a player too heavily just because a supposed top prospect is behind him and expected to make the Majors over the summer, taking over the job. That was the situation Villar found himself in with Orlando Arcia, but Arcia didn’t debut until the beginning of August and Villar was rocking all year, so was never at risk of losing his job.

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