A month ago, I compared Depth Chart projections — a composite of the reputed Steamer and ZiPS projection systems — to fan projections, compiled on each player’s page as “FANS.” I proceeded to look at the largest differences between the two systems — loosely considering the aggregation of independent fan projections a “system” — and identify which system better projected that particular player.

For hitters, the Depth Charts won by a landslide, 7-2. Turns out that fans frequently projected better production from prospects than what said prospects actually produced. It’s the cognitive bias I expected to see; I anticipated that fan(tasy owner)s associate hype with swift, robust production. I call it the Mike Trout Syndrome, named after the generational talent who has conditioned fans to expect immediate and immense production from all top prospects.

So how did the fans fare versus the Depth Charts regarding pitchers? Funny you ask. Here are the five starting pitchers whose Depth Charts FIPs varied most dramatically from their FANS FIPs:

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For the third year in a row, I decided to put together a little experiment during the all-star break. I took two groups of 10 starting pitchers comprised of those whose ERAs outperformed and underperformed their SIERA marks by the largest margins. Oddly, the poll results no longer show how many readers voted, but of those that answered the question “Which Group Posts a Lower 2nd Half ERA?”, 72.2% of you voted for Group A, the SIERA outperformers. This is actually an increase from last year, when just 61.1% of you voted for Group A! Have you learned nothing from reading my work?! Despite this group actually posting a very slightly higher SIERA than Group B, you felt that the magic would continue. Let’s find out the results and if the majority was correct.

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Before agreeing to join Chad Young in the management of his dynasty franchise, I had never really co-managed a team. There were a few situations in which I drafted a team and handed it over (and vice versa) but never a true collaborative process. In a properly deep league (like dynasty), having an associate is an enjoyable experience.

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Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs

The signing of both players by the Cubs points to two major impacts, a good Cubs offense and Javier Baez doesn’t have a full-time job. Starting with the offense, the Cubs don’t really have any holes except at catcher and there are worse catchers than Miguel Montero. If last year’s rookies (Russell, Bryant, Schwaber, and Soler) continue to grow and don’t regress too much, the Cubs could put up a ton of runs. This means plenty of Runs and RBI for every Cub. They will also get more at-bats since fewer outs are being made so more offense. It tough to put an exact number on the run increase, but I would not be surprised to see them challenge the Rockies for the most runs scored next season.

I just don’t see how Javier Baez is going to get regular playing time with Zobrist at second base and Russell at short. Zobrist gives the Cubs some flexibility to give some others a day off and Baez could fill in. Baez may only be looking at 200 plate appearances unless another starter has a major injury or a second-year player has a huge slump. I could see the Cubs move Baez in a trade.

Not much else really changed. The Cubs pitchers may see a small increase in value with Heyward in the outfield. Over the course of a season, Wrigley Field plays pitcher-friendly in the cold spring and then heats up in the mid-summer, so the pair’s offense will stay the same. Heyward and Zobrist are pretty much done stealing bases, so I don’t any movement in that category.

 

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2015: Houston Astros

The Graduate: Carlos Correa, SS: The Astros recently traded another first overall pick (Mark Appel to the Phillies for young closer Ken Giles) but you won’t see them flipping Correa any time soon. The 21-year-old shortstop was an offensive force for the surprisingly-successful Astros in 2015. He was worth more than three wins for the club and slugged 22 home runs and adding 14 steals. He also showed an advanced approach at the plate and promise in the field.

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It’s the final Pod’s Picks recap of the season! Finally, we get to my favorite position for nerdy analysis, the starting pitchers. Refresh your memory with my original starting pitcher Pod’s Picks post.

Bullish

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The 2015 fantasy baseball season has come to a close, so it is time to look back at the season past and determine which players were the most valuable at each position. We’ve worked our way through the position players, and now we head to the starting rotation.

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2015 Visualized: Outfield
2015 Visualized: Shortstop
2015 Visualized: Third Base
2015 Visualized: Second Base
2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

* * *

As it has done for the past several weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to a particular defensive position. After a three-week lull during which outfielders (and the hot stove) dominated our conversations, we will turn our collective attention to starting pitchers.

In past posts, I utilized Depth Charts projections, which combined two premier player projection systems (Steamer and ZiPS) while using playing times allocated by FanGraphs staff. However, I missed the boat on accessing pitcher Depth Chart projections from 2015. So, instead, I pulled them from Steamer’s website, on which they hosted a Google Doc of 2015’s preseason projections.

Using these projections, I compared projected xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) to actual xFIP (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Because xFIP is a rate metric, I did not need to scale performances by playing time. I hope FanGraphs’ database split performances by starting and relieving because that’s what I asked it to do; if a pitcher who split time between the rotation and bullpen appears to have wonky numbers, it could be his splits, or it could be I’m an idiot.

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Yesterday included one of my favorite activities of the offseason – the Rule 5 draft. If you’re not familiar with it, the Rule 5 draft is when teams have a chance to select players from rival franchises. Here are the main rules:

• Any player on the 40-man roster is protected
• Players signed at age 19 or older are protected for four seasons
• Players signed at age 18 or older are protected for five seasons

If none of those conditions apply to a player, then he may be selected in the draft. Draft picks cost $50K and the drafting team must keep a player on the major league roster for the entire season in order to retain him. Injured players must spend at least 90 active days on the roster.

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

A Minor Review of 2015: San Francisco GiantsThe Graduate: Matt Duffy, IF: Duffy’s amazing rookie season came out of nowhere. Considered a solid. professional hitter, he nonetheless lacked the standout tools that makes scouts drool and analysts run to their databases. He was a former 18th round draft pick who signed for just $50,000 in an age of multi-million-dollar deals being lavished upon 16 and 17 year olds. Give major kudos to Duffy for tirelessly working on his overall game and becoming a threat on both sides of the ball. Add in the fact that he’s produced almost 5 WAR for league minimum and you have a really winner here for the Giants and fans alike.

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