With the news that Jake McGee is having knee surgery and is likely lost for the season, there is a new name on the grid for the Rays. As you can see in Marc Topkin’s story, Kevin Cash makes it clear that this doesn’t mean the ninth is Brad Boxberger’s now. We could continue to see him pitch in the eighth if the situation calls for it, with any one of four Rays called upon to close it out. The grid isn’t big enough to put them all on, but Steve Geltz, Xavier Cedeno, Alex Colome and Brandon Gomes will all be in the mix for saves in the event that Boxberger needs a night off or if he’s used earlier in the game. I have Geltz as next in line, but it could be any of the four. We’ll have to wait and see if Cash takes a shine to any of the four before we can have much confidence in the order behind Boxberger. For now, I have Geltz and Colome, but that’s written in sand, not etched in stone.

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Alright, we’ve seen generally positive marks from last week’s bunch so far — 1-1, 2.70 ERA, 7.7 K/9 — so hopefully that can be the semblance of consistency needed to get this thing turned back around. Onto this week’s picks…

Here are the totals halfway through week 18 (with updates from previous listing):

29-46 record (3-2)
4.77 ERA (-0.10)
6.7 K/9 (no change)
2.2 K/BB (no change)
1.42 WHIP (-0.04)

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wRC+ in parentheses. Y! ownership numbers pulled courtesy of twitter pal @PandapPete21, whom you should give a follow:

RHP Nate Karns – 32.7% ESPN/34% Y! – v. MIN (92), v. KC (100)

I specifically love Karns against the Twins at the Trop, because the Twins an MLB-worst 76 wRC+ on the road. The Royals, on the other hand, are pretty solid at 93 — especially since just four teams have wRC+ figures over 100 on the road. In other words, the Royals rank 10th in that respect. My sense is that Karns is on the fringes of being something special. He’s just under a strikeout per inning and with a tweak here or two could bump his groundball rate above league average as well. For now though, he walks too many batters and has a few too many blowups to be a full-time rosterable guy in shallower leagues. Something worth watching is that he’s a considerably worse at home (4.04 ERA, 4.34 FIP) than he is on the road (2.82, 3.63). I don’t think it means a whole lot yet, but it could be reason enough for you to look elsewhere. I still like him better than most.

RHP Nathan Eovaldi – 44.16% ESPN/38% Y! – v. HOU (100), @ATL (85)

With the juggling of C.C. Sabathia last week in the Yankees rotation, Eovaldi was pushed back and will now make two starts this week rather than last. The same deal applies as last week, and that is that I like his chances to steal a couple cheap wins over the week to come. He’s 13-2, and has been pretty good in the second half (3.66 ERA, 6.9 K/9 and 1.29 WHIP).

LHP Danny Duffy – 15.6% ESPN/23% Y! – v. BAL (101), @TBR (97)

Duffy has struggled for much of the season, but he’s at least been decent in seven starts since the All Star break. He’s got a 3.48 ERA and .711 OPS against, but for some reason still just a 20-13 K/BB ratio over those 41.1 innings. It’s always puzzled me that he doesn’t strike out more batters with his excellent stuff, but at this point it’s worth wondering if this is just who he is. He might be a guy who benefits from a move to the bullpen, a la Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar before him. But nevertheless, I still like him a bit more than the guys below this week, since I don’t really envision either of these offenses blowing him up. I could eat my words with Baltimore, because Chris Davis crushes lefties.

Also considered: John Lamb, Matt Cain, Felix Doubront, Robby Ray and Adam Morgan.

Byron Buxton is back and that’s fantastic. Sure he struggled in his first major-league stint, a measly 11-game sample beset by strikeouts and not much else, but judging him based on such a small spell is not a good idea. He should be added right away in all formats. It seems like unnecessary advice until you consider he’s owned in 32 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 25 percent of ESPN leagues.

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Today at the Freshmen Report we’re taking a look at two young closers and a couple of powerful bats with contact issues.

Roberto Osuna, RHP, Blue Jays: The Jays took a huge gamble with Osuna (and the recently departed Miguel Castro) at the beginning of the year when they jumped the two young arms from A-ball directly into the big league bullpen. The 20-year-old Mexico native has flummoxed veteran hitters with his mid-90s heat, outstanding changeup and above-average command/control He’s also been unflappable — especially given his age and amount of pro experience — often looking like a veteran on the mound in high-leverage situations. Osuna slowly worked his way into the closer’s role on the club and has been one of the anchors in the new-look bullpen, which has gone from one of the worst in the Majors to one of the best. One thing to watch as the Jays fight for life in the post season is his innings count; he’s already at a career high.

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Yesterday I gave you seven NL pitchers who have fared much better at home and as such should be considered in only their home venues. Today I’ve got six five more from the American League. This strategy is best deployed in mixed leagues, but I broke the list up by leagues just because it would’ve been too huge for one piece.

UPPER TIER

Garrett Richards, LAA (2.28 ERA split) – Richards had one of the worst starts of the year when he went to New York and dropped a 0.7 IP/6 ER turd on fantasy rosters everywhere. That start influences his road work a good bit, but even removing it only gives him a 4.00 ERA on the road. He’s had some good starts on the road, but he has consistently been sharp at home. His 2.53 ERA comes with a 0.99 WHIP and 22% K rate compared to 1.48 and 16% on the road. He’s allowed more than 3 ER just once at home and he still fanned 11 in that game (4 ER v. CLE). The Angels have just 19 home games left this season, one of the lower totals in the league, accounting for 45% of their remaining schedule.

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Agenda

1. An Explanation
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Hi/Lo
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Severino, Heaney, Uribe, Ichiro
6. Factor Grid

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Episode 96 – Field Of Streams After Dark

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss “Matt and Dylan After Dark,” making Matt pick against Jeff Locke, Justin Verlander’s volatility, Matt telling more jokes, failing to offer any real sort of analysist on Jerad Eickhoff, being wrong on boring Neil Walker, serious responses to silly Twitter names, considering how you might make any picks in a matchup between Chris Sale and Felix Hernandez, being sad about having no faith in Chase Anderson, and plugging the new iTunes page.

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The Wonder Years, possibly my favorite band at the moment and for the last three years or so, just released a track from their upcoming album. If you’re into the pop-punk scene or are just interested in what kind of music I enjoy, check out “I Don’t Like Who I Was Then” (warning: language).

On today’s agenda:
1. A San Francisco outfield shuffle
2. Josh Harrison to return soon
3. Anibal Sanchez’s right shoulder strain
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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Cody Allen struggled a bit in the Bronx today, but escaped a ninth-inning jam to finish off the Yankees and notch his 24th save of the season. He yielded an earned run on a pair of singles and a walk, but managed to induce a fly ball out off the bat of Didi Gregorious for the final out of the game, stranding a duo of ducks on the pond. Just 14 of Allen’s 21 pitches fell for strikes tonight, four of which were looking and one by swing-and-miss. He also nailed the first pitch for a strike to three of the six batters he faced.
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Episode 267

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris talk about trades, injuries, and performances. Specific players discussed include Chase Utley, Marlon Byrd, Anibal Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Byron Buxton, Will Venable, Derek Holland, Nathan Eovaldi, Lance McCullers, and more!

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