It’s no secret that CC Sabathia has struggled mightily since 2013. It’s also no secret that his troubles have coincided with a swift decline in fastball velocity. Check out his velocity trend since 2011:

Last season he lost over two miles per hour off his fastball to a mark that dipped below the important 90 mph threshold. And yet despite the obvious signs of decline, I remained stubbornly optimistic, thanks to a still respectable SIERA. I (foolishly?) boldly predicted that Sabathia “reminds us of his glory days and earns top 40 starting pitcher value” this year.

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In addition to yesterday marking the 11th year since Friends wrapped up, May 6 also signifies the sixth year mark since the final episode of the original eight seasons of Scrubs. The last few minutes of the episode My Finale ranks among favorite sitcom endings of all time.

On today’s agenda:
1. The return of Coco Crisp
2. J.J. Hardy offers infield power
3. Noah Syndergaard watch
4. Streaming Pitching Options
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• Recently reinstated closer Brett Cecil threw tonight, but unfortunately for fantasy owners, he didn’t pick up a save in a four-run game. However, the outing provided an interesting data point with respect to Cecil’s velocity. Two nights ago, Cecil sat between 93-94 mph — a far cry from the mid-80’s mark he was posting early in the season, and even a tick above last year’s average. Read the rest of this entry »

Shin-Soo Choo is no longer elite. He used to be, though. Back in 2009-2010, he put up a pair of excellent .300, 20/20 seasons which yielded a 139 wRC+, good enough for 11th in baseball. Just two years ago in a much tougher scoring environment across the league, he hit .285 and went 20/20 yielding a 151 wRC+ (9th-best). The move to Texas wasn’t really an upgrade in park, but it didn’t project to really hurt him, either. After all, his best work came in Cleveland which is hardly known as a hitter-friendly ballpark (these days it plays plus for LHB, though not overwhelmingly so).

Injuries marred his debut season in Texas resulting in an uninspiring effort that saw him hit 13 homers with a .242 AVG, .714 OPS, and just three stolen bases (in seven attempts) in 123 games. Both the ankle and elbow injuries that nagged him throughout the season required surgery and so there was a reasonable expectation of health for Choo coming into the season. His 2014 campaign offered a discount as he sank to the 51st outfielder off the board this draft season. Given the wretched first month to his season, it’s hard not to wonder if either of last year’s injuries or perhaps a new one has cropped up for Choo.

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Last week I posted the AL OF tiered rankings for May and used my favorite films from 2014 as tier labels. In the comments section I briefly discuses with one reader, The Theory, about my enjoyment seeing fellow South Koreans get their shot in Hollywood. I suggest seeing The Good, the Bad, the Weird — currently available on Netflix — as I really enjoyed it.
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With Jake McGee currently on a rehab assignment and Sean Doolittle reportedly set to begin one soon, Brad Boxberger and Tyler Clippard may not be seeing much of the ninth inning soon. Ignoring the whims of managers and whether McGee and Doolittle will resume their role as closer, should they? Read the rest of this entry »

You may have noticed that FanGraphs now feeds batted ball data, courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions, into its leaderboards. The day the data appeared, my mind buzzed with ways they could be useful in improving our understanding of a hitter’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Mike Podhorzer already augmented previous attempts at devising an equation for expected batting average on balls in play (xBABIP) for hitters by incorporating elements of a hitter’s power, speed, plate discipline and batted ball tendencies. So, with fresh numbers in hand, I embarked on a journey to further improve the ever-evolving xBABIP. However, I sought to do so by using only batted ball data. Basically, I intended to develop a convenient xBABIP equation, one that can be computed using almost entirely variables found on the same page.

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Agenda

1. Farnsworth on Guerrero
2. Daily DFS – Buehrle
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Frias, Fiers, Alonso, Grossman
5. Factor Grid

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Episode 23 – Colby On Colby Action

The latest episode of “Field of Streams” is live!

In this episode, Dylan Higgins and Matthew Dewoskin discuss Dylan’s birthday, hitter vs. pitcher histories and how to handle (or ignore) them, Dylan living on a particular side of the tracks, navigating a doubleheader in Colorado, Dylan using a different microphone, Kelly Johnson’s early power outburst, Mark Buehrle vs. CC Sabathia in 2015, Nelson Cruz’s ridiculous line against lefties so far this year, trying to remember what is interesting about Sam Deduno, and Matt taking the opportunity to break rule No. 1 then ranting about the White Sox.

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More matter with less art, we hear some spoilsports telling us. We came for data; give us data. Fair enough, and here you go. The thing is, though, you never know. Sometimes you complain about the menu and you wind up with manna. Other times, you complain, and you get so much of what you’re after that, as God so trenchantly put it, “it come out of your nostrils and it be loathsome unto you.” Keep us posted as to which it is; we know you won’t be bashful about it. Read the rest of this entry »