Average Draft Position or ADP is very valuable. I weighed NFBC’s ADP into my personal NFBC Draft Champion rankings equally to my position-adjusted composite projections (Baseball HQ combined with RotoChamp composites (Steamer, ZIP’s, etc.)) and the results were great. I used this, our pitcher arsenal scores and these hitter analytics  as my three main draft tools.

I wanted to take evaluating draft position one step further. I want to understand how consistent each player is drafted near their ADP.

Howard Bender, who manages Mock Draft Army provided me with the raw draft results of 19 expert drafts (NFBC format: 2c-1b-2b-3b-ss-ci-mi-5of-9p). It’s not the largest sample, but they are expert drafts, and the drafts that I have taken part in definitely provided great references.

The Approach:

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

On the one hand, the Angels outfield is almost guaranteed to be among the best in the league. However, depth is an issue now that Josh Hamilton’s future is in question. If Mike Trout lands on the disabled list – and it will eventually happen – the entire club could go from the division favorite to fighting for a Wild Card berth.

With David Wiers rambling about spirit animals on a daily basis, I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the animal theme of this outfield. Trout’s the easy one, but then there is Hamilton and Cowgill. Calhoun is a ‘D’ away from participating. Anywho, let’s dig in.

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In our ceaseless pursuit of Fantasy bargains, we now consider the Cincinnati Reds—or, as one of us will go to his grave calling them, the Cincinnati Redlegs. (This was actually the team’s name from 1954 through 1959, presumably in order to avoid confusion with the crosstown Cincinnati Communists of the Internationale League.)

But we divagate. The Reds in 2014 lost 38 one-run games, the most in a single season by any team in this century. Their record in such games was 22-38, which is likewise abysmal. You’d figure that such a team would have a weak bullpen, and the Reds sure did. They had the fourth worst bullpen ERA in the majors, and no other team was even close to the bullpen’s 11-31 won-lost record. You might also expect that such a team would have a weak closer, but the Reds didn’t. In fact, as you no doubt know, Aroldis Chapman is perhaps the best closer in baseball, and finished second last season in percentage of saves converted. Moreover, Jonathan Broxton, his replacement for the first month or so of the season, converted five out of his six save opportunities.

No, it was the rest of the bullpen—including Broxton, once he became the set-up guy after Chapman returned—that sank the Reds. Chapman, you see, was used almost exclusively (1) in the 9th inning with (2) either the score tied or the Reds holding a narrow lead. If the Reds, courtesy of the bullpen, couldn’t get to the 9th, Chapman wasn’t a factor. Likewise Broxton, in his capacity as closer. Read the rest of this entry »

The aftermath of The Great Valuation System Test continues! Before reading further, be sure you know what was being tested and our process, along with the results:

The Process
The Results

At the end of the results article, I mentioned that although we now have a good idea of which valuation system proved best at converting a player’s statistical line into a dollar value, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the system does the best job for every individual player or player type. So today I’ll look into different player groups and individual players and see if we could find any patterns.

I will be excluding ESPN because their rating number is on a different scale and only using the Razzball – 0% Pos Adjustment & 100% versions. I also don’t have room to fit all the systems in so had to cut down in some manner.

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After getting our signals crossed on Monday (read: I dun goofed), today we have but one Roto Riteup for you folks.

On today’s agenda:
1. Spirits and velocity good for C.C. Sabathia
2. Dylan Bundy’s 100 innings limit
3. Quick thoughts on Craig Gentry

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• Last time we saw you, Marcus Stroman’s ACL was still intact. That is no longer than case, and the Jays suddenly have a big need to fill holes in their rotation. Why is this news in the Bullpen Report? Well, a favorite sleeper of ours, Aaron Sanchez, seems significantly more likely to open 2015 in the rotation than a week ago. The good news for the Jays? Brett Cecil is back throwing after some minor shoulder inflammation. If all goes well, he may see game action by the end of this week, which would almost assure he’ll open the season as Toronto’s ninth inning man barring setbacks. Keep an eye out for velocity readings from side sessions and game situations. If Cecil’s fastball is sitting around 92-93 mph and touching 94-95, it’ll be a welcome sign his minor shoulder issues were just that. As primarily a fastball-curve guy, he’ll need the juice to succeed. If the velocity is down, it could just be early season dead arm, but given the shoulder, it might be enough to knock him down my rankings.

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Episode 205

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris discuss some Spring Training injury news surrounding the AL East (which was purely coincidental that all four items were ALE-related).

*NOTE THERE IS SOME WEIRD ECHOING LATE IN THE EP, NO IDEA WHAT HAPPENED THERE*

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My 2013 predictions failed me, as did my 2014, yet I’m still feeling good about this year! I don’t think we need to retread old ground too much, but for the uninitiated, I currently sit at 0-20 lifetime. Without further delay, lets get this over with here are my 10 bold predictions!

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
I’m shoving all in on Donaldson in Toronto. Presumably he’ll form a triumvirate of power and on-base skills with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and will most likely hit in front of those two. Scoring 120 runs is a feat that has happened just four times since 2010 and represents a 27 run increase for Donaldson from this year. I thought about predicting Donaldson as a top-5 player, however he is already top-20 or 25. Not enough of a jump for me to call bold, so 120 runs it is! Quick edit, as Donaldson may hit fifth rather than second. If that is the case, expect him to score fewer runs, but boost his RBI total to the 130 plateau, something only three players have done since 2010.
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It’s Bold Prediction Season here at Rotographs with Zach Sanders and Brad Johnson kicking it off this morning and many more on the way. Now it’s my turn at-bat. I’m obviously looking to strike a balance between realistic and bold. Calling for Stephen Strasburg to win the NL Cy Young isn’t really that bold even though he’s never come close and only has the one season north of 183 innings. He has been an elite-level arm pretty much since joining the league so it isn’t all that bold to essentially say “it all comes together this year”.

Meanwhile, putting Freddie Freeman down for 45 HRs fulfills the bold end of the ledger, but isn’t terribly realistic. First off, is he going to get 45 pitches to hit in that lineup? But more importantly, he hasn’t shown the skill or batted ball profile for that kind of power surge (essentially double his career-high of 23 set in 2012 and matched in 2013) so what’s really the point if it’s just bold for bold sake?

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As I write this, Mike Trout is sporting a .556 batting average in Spring Training. I also had the pleasure of drafting him first overall in my NFBC Draft Champions league. To celebrate his feat and my luck, I am shooting for at least five of nine of the following bold predictions.

Here goes (extra ballsy right from the start):

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