Welcome back to the Bullpen Report, version 2015! A few quick pieces of news, but the main goal of today’s post was to get the grid updated and out there. There will almost certainly be plenty of tuning between now and opening day. We’ll be slowly ramping up activity as the season gets closer and we’ll be back to nightly rundowns soon.

• Sergio Romo battled some shoulder soreness earlier this spring but he has now been cleared to begin pitching in games. The good news? He should be ready for opening day. The bad news? He’s still firmly behind Santiago Casilla in the Giants pecking order. That said, Romo may not be a terrible late round flyer — he’s always gotten by on the strength of an elite slider (not velocity), and while he’s regressed a bit over the last few years, Casilla’s mediocre K% (18-20% over last 3 seasons) puts him squarely in the crosshairs of BABIP “luck.” There’s no controversy now, but Romo is one of the more established guys sitting 2nd on the depth chart. If his shoulder stays attached and he can stay near where he’s been the last few years, it’s easy to envision a scenario where he’s back in the ninth inning for a least a little while this year.

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I am putting all my Quick Look “Final Thoughts” together for the start of spring training. Remember these looks are a little more fluid since pitcher are now throwing, changing and breaking down.

Henderson Alvarez
Henderson Alvarez is what he is. Without a swing-and-miss pitch, he will likely continue on the Doug Fister mold of a High GB/Low K pitcher. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling or floor right now.

Chase Anderson
He has some OK thinks going on. He gets has good swing-and-miss numbers across the board, but the fly ball tendencies (40% GB%) in his home park in Arizona scares me. I think he is best used as a matchup starter versus weaker teams or in pitcher friendly parks.

Chris Bassitt
I wasn’t impressed, but he could work out in Oakland’s large park since he is a flyball pitcher. I see a 5th starter/longer relief future for him.

Mike Bolsinger
I expected to find a horrible pitcher and he wasn’t. His 13% K%-BB% is comparable to Lance Lynn and Francisco Liriano. It would be nice for him to throw a pitch which broke horizontally. If he finds regular playing time, he could be a serviceable pitcher in deeper or NL-only leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

The San Diego Padres out ran 16, (sixteen!), different outfielders in 2014 and unless you’ve been living in the Krubera Cave in the Republic of Georgia, you’ve probably seen there were a few changes made in for 2015. Before the great Padre roster overhaul, their outfield appeared to be comprised of some combination of Will Venable, Abraham Almonte, Cameron Maybin, and Carlos Quentin until his back broke.

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This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.

The Mariners seem to be doing a variation on a theme here. The theme? One could argue that it’s “Recent Vintage Tampa Bay Rays.” Or, one could argue that it’s “Recent Vintage Seattle Mariners.” They have a lot of moving parts and some potential platoons. One might find it interesting, or one might find it a cause for concern. The difference between the 2015 Mariners and a team like the ~2012-2014 Rays is that the former have some very expensive veteran players—signed as free agents—slated for full-time roles. Again, cause for concern, or optimism?

The Mariners’ big move this offseason was signing Nelson Cruz to a four-year, $58MM deal.* Cruz could play some OF, but he’s likely to be the full-time DH for his stay in Seattle. Rickie Weeks was a late addition and could end up seeing a lot of time against left-handed pitchers, though that might mostly come in the form of a left field platoon with Dustin Ackley. Other than Cruz and Weeks, the names below are familiar, if not exactly household ones.

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I already took a look at some of the risky upside picks in the outfield. Now I’ll tackle the middle infield.

The Javier Baez story if fairly familiar by now. The 22-year-old brings massive power along with huge strikeout totals. That power comes in the generally-weak middle infield and is coupled with solid speed for a potential smorgasbord of fantasy goodness.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Astros don’t have many near-MLB-ready, high-ceiling arms but there are definitely some intriguing hitters on the cusp of reaching the Majors.

1. Mark Appel, RHP: With the trade of Mike Foltynewicz to Atlanta, Appel becomes the pitching prospect in the system with the highest ceiling who is closest to the Majors. He’ll no doubt look to leave the injury concerns and drama from 2014 behind him… and also the dangerous confines of the California League, which led to a 9.74 ERA in 12 starts. Now established in Double-A, he should spend at least a half season there before challenging for a call-up to The Show. If he continues to show his top stuff and stays healthy, Appel has the ceiling of a No. 2/3 starter.

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This is meant to be less of an overly serious analysis as it is an exercise in projecting minor league players in a new and different way. Unfortunately, Chris Mitchell has largely done what I’m about to present, and with more sophistication at that, so I’ll have to strike out the new part. But different? Sure, to an extent.

While Chris’ KATOH predicts a hitter’s probability of major league success by projecting career wins above replacement (WAR) thresholds, my model predicts probability of future success in the context of various career accomplishments: Will he be a better-than-replacement level starter? An All-Star? A future MVP? Ultimately, the exercise is simpler and more qualitative, evaluating strictly AAA stats (rather than all minor league levels, as KATOH does) and making predictions according to various marginal changes in common statistics such as isolated power (ISO), stolen base rate (SB/PA) and age. Think of the model as a series of player comparisons. Also, please think of the model as not a replacement or substitute for KATOH but a complement to it, albeit a less intense one. I will use this tool for analysis, but only infrequently; I recommend you keep up with all of Chris’ KATOH posts (as well as Kiley McDaniels‘ prospect coverage) to fulfill your prospect consumption needs.

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This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.

In a Nutshell: The Twins have one of the best minor league systems in baseball and the majority of the upper-level talent should reach The Show in 2015 — significantly improving the big league product. Impressively, Minnesota has high ceiling talent both in the field and on the mound.

1. Miguel Sano, 3B: Minnesota will heavily rely on sophomore hitter Kennys Vargas to provide pop in 2015 so the lineup could certainly use some additional thump. After a little additional seasoning, Sano could be that man. In fact, he’d probably already be in the Majors if not for the Tommy John surgery he underwent last year. Incumbent third baseman Trevor Plouffe has been competent at the hot corner for the past few seasons but he’s really only been above replacement level for one season out of the past four. Once Sano reaches the Majors, he has the skill to hit 30+ home runs and to be a true offensive threat for the Twins.

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It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

In recent seasons, the Angels have been plagued by weakness in the bullpen. Failed experiments with Jordan Walden, Scott Downs, and Ernesto Frieri paved the way for their acquisition of Huston Street last season. The bullpen looks to be a strength in 2015 – or at least it probably won’t be a weakness. In addition to solid veteran depth, there are a few high profile youngsters to track.

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The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Interestingly, I have seen many commenters ask for advice when choosing between this Monday’s Pod Projectionee, Carlos Carrasco, and today’s choice, Jacob deGrom. You’ll see when I unveil my full deGrom projection below, but it’s a rather close call, as they have very similar forecasts.

With that said, deGrom essentially came out of nowhere last year to post a sub-3.00 ERA in 22 starts and earn NL Rookie of the Year honors. He generally posted ho-hum minor league peripherals, but perhaps fueled by a faster slider, his coming out party occurred in the Majors. Before beginning my projection, I shared four reasons why deGrom was for real. Since I gave it away above by comparing the projection to Carrasco’s, I’ll tell you that I still feel the same way.

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