Episode 197
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!
In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss a light news day which is pretty Dodgers-centric and then finish the NL West team previews with LAD, SD, and SF.
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Last Friday, I wrote about some ways I plan on investigating a deeper into hitters. Here is the first weekly column on the information. I will pulish the data on Sunday night to help with setting weekly leagues. The format and information are not close to being 100%, so expect some changes for a few weeks as I iron out a few wrinkles.
Pitchers’ Approach Attacking Hitters
Robert Arthur at Baseball Prospectus has shown pitchers will change their approach depending on the hitter’s talent level. Here is a complete list of the number of fastballs (including sinkers) thrown to each hitter of the past two years divided into half seasons. Also the number of pitches in the strike by half season is included along with the fastball percentage in the strike zone. I will begin adding 2015 information as it becomes available.
Note: I usually try to pick the most recent game the player pitched. Sometimes the MLB video has issues and other games are picked. Also, if a say a pitch moves 11-5, it is from the pitcher’s perspective.
Why I watched: Looks like he will make the White Sox rotation.
Game(s) Watched: 9/26/14 vs Royals
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
There aren’t too many infields that can match the Indians’ selection of quality options at typically hard-to-fill positions, including a catcher coming off a breakout season, a corner infielder with solid power capability and a second baseman ready to return to his all-star form. As a bonus, there are several interesting depth pieces as well that owners in deep leagues might find useful.
Read the rest of this entry »
As a group, the Royals outfield was a dynamic bunch in 2014. It was responsible for a great part of the success that drove Kansas City to within an eyelash of the World Series title.
By WAR, only three teams outpaced the Royals outfield at 15.2: the Orioles, Pirates and Rays, respectively. More importantly to the context of their value, no outfield defense was anywhere close to Kansas City’s. Only five teams had a higher fly ball rate. Only four teams allowed fewer home runs per fly ball than the Royals, which doesn’t really apply to the outfielders on the surface, but rather what the team is trying to do on the whole.
There’s some room for regression in those last two statements. Only three teams since 2000 have had better defensive seasons than the Royals as an outfield last year. The Royals checked in at plus-43.3 defensive runs. Only the 2005 Braves (60.4!), 2009 Mariners (50.4) and 2007 Braves (44.2) have that mark beat. The 2013 Royals however — largely the same group as 2014 — checked in at 38.7, so the biggest difference will be what, if any, dropoff comes from a change in right field. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Houston Astros have a pretty interesting infield for fantasy purposes this year. Jose Altuve continues to be the No. 1 fantasy second baseman, which is where I’ve had him ranked since July. Altuve’s far from the only intriguing fantasy commodity in the Astros’ infield, so let’s take a look around the diamond. (As with my columns on the Yankees and Twins infields, I won’t include a separate section for the designated hitter. The DH will be covered position-by-position below.)
CATCHER
Evan Gattis
Jason Castro
Hank Conger
Evan Gattis is likely just an emergency catcher in real life, seeing as the Astros have Castro and Conger. However, for fantasy purposes, he’s still catcher-eligible, and our experts here at Rotographs have him slotted in as the No. 3 fantasy catcher for 2015. There’s plenty of reason for optimism here, as moving from behind the dish should allow him considerably more playing time than he received in either of the last two seasons in Atlanta.
This post continues our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, rotation, and bullpen) and will continue to break them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find the Depth Chart Discussion posts gathered here.
As Paul Swydan recently examined, the Mets’ hopes for success in 2015 largely depend on what happens with their rotation. How quickly will ace Matt Harvey return to form? Will Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom build on their potential? When will Noah Syndergaard arrive in the big leagues, and how good will he be during his initial transition to the Majors?
Indeed, these are likely the same questions that fantasy owners are asking as they search the Mets roster for 2015 value. One thing Swydan points out in the above-linked article is that Steamer and ZiPS envision different tracks for Mets starters in 2015. Per said: “Steamer paints them as having one legit good pitcher, and a bunch of guys who can be good on any given day but at the end of the season won’t amount to much. … ZiPS, on the other hand, paints them as having two leading men in Harvey and deGrom and a strong number three in Zack Wheeler.”
Which of these projection systems should we trust more as fantasy owners? Or, what might these projections be missing?
| Matt Harvey | IP | W | K | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 178.1 | 9 | 191 | 2.27 | 0.93 | 27.7% | 4.5% | 2.00 |
| Steamer | 144.0 | 9 | 154 | 3.13 | 1.13 | 26.1% | 6.9% | 3.10 |
| ZiPS | 153.0 | – | 140 | 3.12 | 1.16 | 22.0% | 7.7% | 3.24 |
| Fans | 169.0 | 12 | 178 | 2.98 | 1.06 | – | – | 2.78 |
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
The Kansas City Royals’ rotation lost its staff ace this offseason as James Shields moved on to greener pastures, and by greener, I mean he signed a contract with the San Diego Padres worth $75 million over four years with a 2019 team option. The 33-year old was the only member of the American League pennant winner’s rotation who bested a 3.0 WAR (Shields posted a 3.7 WAR), and one of only two starters to eclipse 200 innings pitched (Jeremy Guthrie was the other). Beyond the absence of Shields, the rest of the rotation is likely to feature four familiar faces, at least to open the year.
It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.
By now, we all expect the Phillies to be bad this season. The only question is where they fall on a scale of bad to abominable. Despite the ugly outlook, there are things to like about this team. They still own Cole Hamels. Ditto Cliff Lee. The bullpen, with or without Jonathan Papelbon, could be one of the strongest units in the league.
Run prevention may be a strength of this club. It won’t be enough. The Padres allowed the fourth fewest runs last season en route to a 77 win campaign. They also scored the fewest runs – hence the lousy record. San Diego has pivoted as a franchise, but the Phillies still look like a weaker version of last year’s Padres.
The Cubs infield serves up the best collection of young talent for fantasy owners in baseball. It includes a young middle infielder who might have the biggest range of outcomes of anyone in the majors, a 25-year-old stud first baseman, a shortstop hoping to recapture his past success and two of baseball’s best prospects just waiting for their chance.
Catcher
Miguel Montero
Welington Castillo
Steamer is not excited about Miguel Montero’s prospects after two down seasons, pegging him for 9 home runs and a .239 average in only 359 at-bats. Those numbers seem a little pessimistic for a player who’s managed to top 400 at-bats each of the past four seasons. Montero can take a walk and he still possesses a small amount of pop. He’s relevant in deep or two-catcher leagues. Welington Castillo does not figure to get enough playing time to be relevant in fantasy leagues.
First base