2015 Pod Projections: Yasmany Tomas

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

Today’s Pod Projectionee is Cuban rookie Yasmany Tomas, who I drafted in last week’s LABR mixed league. It’s hard enough projecting Major League veterans and even more difficult forecasting rookies with only minor league data to rely on. But trying to predict exactly what a player with no professional experience in a stateside league might do is a true shot in the dark. So this was a challenge and one I would like to share with you.

Pod Projections Index:
Anthony Rendon

First, let’s get all of the data we do have out of the way.

Year	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	R	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO
2009	91	27	3	1	1	8	19	12	11	4	3	0.297	0.350	0.385	0.088
2010	26	5		1	1		7	4	3		1	0.192	0.185	0.385	0.193
2012	226	68	13	1	16	10	44	36	42	4	2	0.301	0.340	0.580	0.279
2013	127	44	9	2	8	12	19	24	25	1	3	0.346	0.403	0.638	0.292
2014*	231	67	15	2	6	21	46	28	35	6	6	0.290
Career	701	211	40	7	32	51	135	104	116	15	15	0.301	0.349	0.515	0.272
Per 550 AB	550	166	31	5	25	40	106	82	91	12	12

Year	AB/2B	AB/3B	BB%	K%	BABIP	AB/HR
2009	30.3	91	8.1%	19.2%	0.366	91.0
2010	0.0	26	0.0%	26.9%	0.222	26.0
2012	17.4	226	4.2%	18.6%	0.313	14.1
2013	14.1	64	8.6%	13.7%	0.360	15.9
2014*	15.4	116	8.3%	18.3%	0.341	38.5
Career	17.5	100	6.8%	18.0%	0.335	21.9

*I combined his 2014 statistics that had been split, which is why there is no OBP and SLG calculated

Would it have been beneficial to turn the above metrics into rates compared to the league average? Sure, but this is all I’ve got to work with for now, so we’re going with it.

Plate Appearances: 600

Unless he’s a complete flop at the plate, he’s going to be in the lineup all year assuming he remains healthy. The Diamondbacks are going nowhere and have every reason to see exactly what they have with Tomas by giving him a full season of at-bats.

K%: 21%

His career strikeout rate in Cuba was 18% and you have to assume that the quality of hurlers and their respective strikeout abilities is higher here in the States. My 21% projection is ever so slightly worse than the league average last year. This is all just a wild guess of course, but it feels reasonable to me, and allows for both some upside and downside, which is what a projection should be.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 44% / 20% / 36%

This is essentially league average. It’s what happens when you have absolutely no batted ball distribution data to analyze. Unfortunately, his distribution is going to play a role in his power output. More flies = more homers, fewer flies = fewer homers, all else being equal.

BABIP: .310

He posted a .335 mark throughout his career in Cuba, so he either possesses skills to convert balls in play into hits or the defenses in Cuba are significantly worse. Or a combination of both. Once again, batted ball data would be a big help here.

HR/FB Ratio: 15%

Power is Tomas’ calling card. Chase Field augments right-handed home runs by 10%, tied for the eighth most favorable park in baseball. For the third time, batted ball data would be wonderful! We don’t know what kind of HR/FB rates he managed in Cuba, as all we could calculate are AB/HR marks, which are far less insightful. Tomas’ career AB/HR mark was about 22 in Cuba. My projected HR/FB rate, combined with his strikeout rate and batted ball distribution result in a projected AB/HR rate of 24. Fair? Unfair? Should we expect more regression against tougher competition? But what about his 2012 and 2013 performances where he posted mid-teens AB/HR marks? So many question and yet answers we won’t learn until at least this season has been completed.

RBI and Runs: 84 and 71

Tomas figures to hit fifth in the D-Backs order, behind a collection of men of which only Paul Goldschmidt should be expected to post a strong OBP. And of course, the first baseman will be knocking in a whole lotta guys himself, along with fellow bopper Mark Trumbo from the cleanup spot. Over the past three seasons, the fifth hole in the National League produced an average of 86 runs batted in, but that number includes every hitter that batted from that spot. Tomas isn’t going to play 162 games and notch 700 plate appearances. But then Tomas is projected to hit for more power than the average NL fifth hole hitter. So based on an RBI per ball in play analysis, 84 is where the math landed.

For his career, Tomas hasn’t shown much of a propensity to take a walk. His career mark is just 6.8%, but he sat above 8% in 2013 and 2014, which is a good sign. Still, I’m projecting just a .322 OBP. It’s why his runs scored projection is mediocre, despite the fact that NL fifth hole batters have averaged 78 runs scored and I project him to score himself on his 23 homers.

SB: 5

Surprisingly, Tomas has shown a willingness to run. One wonders why though considering his poor 50% success rate. But his stolen base attempts, combined with his triples total, does suggest that he’s not a total zero in the speed department. For those curious, I projected three caught stealings to go along with those five successful attempts. I just assume he’ll be a little smarter about running here.

Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison.

	PA	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	K%	BABIP
Pod	600	0.271	23	84	71	5	21.0%	0.310
ZiPS	520	0.254	21	60	61	4	18.3%	0.293
ZiPS – 600 PA	600	0.254	24	69	70	5

I shared my surprise at ZiPS’ low RBI projection yesterday, and our batting average difference is solely due to BABIP, which is a crapshoot, really. He’s currently getting drafted in NFBC leagues at 151 on average, going as early as 82 and as late as 222(!!). I think it’s a reasonable price to pay and if anything, he appears slightly undervalued if you believe my projection. And of course, there is seemingly lots of profit potential, which outweighs the risk at that cost.

Who do you want to see get the Pod Projections treatment next?