2015 Pod Projections: Anthony Rendon

The Pod Projections are back! My projections are based on the methodology shared in my eBook Projecting X, and the process continues to evolve and improve.

This year, I have turned every hitting metric into a rate stat in my spreadsheet, which allows me to project counting stats like runs scored and batted in, along with stolen bases, much more easily. This means that I don’t directly project those numbers, but rather runs scored per times on base, stolen base attempts per times on base, stolen base success rate, etc. Typically in these Pod Projections posts, I explain my reasoning behind the statistics I manually project. However, you don’t really care about my runs per times on base projection. You just care about the runs scored projection itself! So I will stick with the same format as in years past.

The player earning the honor of the first 2015 Pod Projection is 2014 breakout star Anthony Rendon. His current NFBC ADP is 13th overall and he hasn’t been picked later than 24th. Obviously, fantasy owners believe that Rendon will perform at levels close to last season.

Plate Appearances: 650

He should remain in the two hole all season this time, which will lead to an inflated PA total. But projecting 683 plate appearances again isn’t wise, especially considering he isn’t batting leadoff, a slot that would typically receive the highest PA projection.

K%: 16.1%

Let’s see, compared to 2013, Rendon swung at more pitches outside the zone, posted a lower Contact% and higher SwStk%, but his K% fell from 17.5% to 15.2%. Something doesn’t add up. His minor league track record consists of many tiny samples, but they all support strikeout rates closer to his 2013 mark than his 2014. I split the difference, giving him credit for improvement, but expecting some regression.

GB%/LD%/FB%: 40.5% / 22% / 37.5%

This was essentially his career average over his 964 at-bats. Batted ball type distribution tends to remain fairly consistent from year to year, so for a young player, there’s little reason to project much of a change.

BABIP: .315

His xBABIP (the new and improved version available on FG+ now!) suggests some BABIP upside, as he hits a solid rate of liners, avoids the pop up, and possesses both power and speed. The .315 projection is higher than his career average and conveys my opinion that his increased mark in 2014 was a better representation of his true talent level.

HR/FB Ratio: 10%

Here’s where things get tricky. If you consult his xHR/FB rate (13.3%), you see a hitter with further home run upside. However, he has underperformed his xHR/FB rate during each season in the league, which suggests that the equation is missing something with Rendon or he has just been unlucky for two straight years.

Adding more fuel to the fire is that he ranked third in Just Enough % (JE%) from ESPN Home Run Tracker. A study I conducted several years ago showed us that hitters who posted the highest JE% in one year saw their HR/FB rate decline more than the rest of the player population. Since Rendon enjoyed a meaningful jump in HR/FB rate from 2013 to 2014, I figured some regression was in order, but felt that his power is probably much closer to his 2014 level than 2013.

RBI and Runs: 72 and 92

The RBI total is higher than the average two-hole hitter given Rendon’s power. But, it will be extremely difficult for him to replicate his 83 runs batted in total from last year without greatly elevating his game with men on base once again. It’s not something I would bet on happening.

His projected 92 runs scored total represents quite the falloff from his National League leading total of 111 last season. That was the result of him posting a ridiculous runs per times on base mark that would be impossible to repeat. You would only expect super speedsters like Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon, hitting ahead of a powerful offense, to post a mark as high as Rendon did. The projection assumes some regression from that R/TOB, but acknowledges the strong Nationals offense, his above average speed and the automatic runs from his homers.

SB: 11

Almost a complete shot in the dark. Rendon went from attempting two steals (3.5 extrapolated over his 2014 PA total) to 20 from 2013 to 2014, after making just eight stolen base attempts throughout his short minor league career. Six triples and a 6.4 Spd score validate that he does indeed have some speed. And he was quite successful as well, swiping bases at a strong 85% clip.

But does he fall back into the mid-single digits, sustain his upper teen pace, or end up somewhere in between like I’m projecting? I have no real idea and neither do you! His ultimate fantasy value will really hinge on his stolen base output. Given how early he is being drafted, fantasy owners are banking on something close to a repeat in the steals department, which is risky.

Below is my final projected fantasy batting line, along with the other systems for comparison.

System	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	R	SB	K%	BABIP
Pod	582	0.283	18	72	92	11	16.1%	0.310
Steamer	569	0.279	19	72	84	11	15.6%	0.308
ZiPS	531	0.276	18	72	85	10	17.3%	0.309
Fans (36)	598	0.291	21	87	103	14	15.2%	0.317

Who woulda thunk that all the systems would project exactly 72 RBI?! We’re also all in agreement on his BABIP, stolen base and home run totals. The runs scored totals from Steamer and ZiPS appear a bit too conservative.

It’s no surprise that the Fans are most optimistic, though I’m curious if their level of optimism is greater for Rendon than other players. I know the Fans projections are optimistic in general, so I wonder if their Rendon projection indexed to the rest of the players they projected is more or less optimistic than the rest of us.

Based on my and the other systems’ projections, Rendon seems overvalued to me. He seemingly has to hit the Fans targets to break even for his owners, which is a tall order, but obviously not completely out of the realm of possibility.