Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 20__.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the 2014 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2015 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

Previous Pieces:
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Yankees and Orioles
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rays
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Indians and Tigers
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: White Sox, Royals, Twins
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Angels and A’s
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Astros, Angels, Mariners

A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Braves and Phillies
A Minor (League) Review of 2014: Marlins, Mets, Nationals

A Minor Review of 2014: Reds

The Graduate: Billy Hamilton, OF: There is no denying that Hamilton is an exciting player thanks to his top-of-the-scale speed. However, from an offensive standpoint, the shortstop-turned-center-fielder had a modest year in the Majors. A .292 on-base percentage only takes away from Hamilton’s greatest asset (his base running) and he doesn’t make enough consistent contact (117 strikeouts in 152 games). He’s intriguing, but he still has a long way to go to become a key player for the Reds.

The Riser: Ben Lively, RHP: The enigmatic and deceptive Lively had a grand year in the minors, going from 2013 fourth-round prospect to a Double-A hurler in 2014. Despite his average stuff, the right-hander allowed just 117 hits and struck out 171 batters in 151.0 innings. If he keeps this up, he could reach The Show in the second half of 2015.

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Mike Napoli didn’t have quite the campaign in 2014 fantasy baseball players hoped he would. But, given the mid-round price they paid in mixed leagues, they were clearly prepared for some downside. He batted .248 with a .370 OBP in 500 plate appearances, but it’s the 17 home runs (and largely resultant 55 RBIs) that were a bit disappointing and largely the reason he was basically a replacement-level asset in roto leagues this season.

There aren’t any glaring signs of an immediate rebound, either. Napoli will be 33 next year. He has a bad body type. He’s already dealt with various health issues for the past few seasons. He has platoon-split issues. He strikes out pretty frequently. If he isn’t going to hit 25 bombs, then he’s probably not going to be much good in the fake baseball game.

Perhaps there’s some salvageable value, though. Those negatives could drive down his cost significantly. Fantasy owners tend to steer clear of hitters like Napoli. Will he fall, and how much will he, if he does?

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It was a fantastic season for Edwin Encarnacion, but his owners are left wondering “what if?” What if he didn’t miss 30-some games with injury. He could have been the top first baseman in baseball. Zach Sanders tabbed Encarnacion’s 79 runs, 34 home runs, 98 RBI, two steals, and .268 average as worth $20. Per FantasyPros, he cost about $28 to draft. While he didn’t return a profit for his owners, it was a good season to hold shares of Encarnacion.
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First base has a disproportionate number of hitters who are left-handed and hit for power. As such, there is no position in baseball that has been as impacted by the defensive shift. Pretty much every team has bought into the shift on one level or another, and while some players with extreme pull tendencies escape notice because they do not fit the stereotype (hello Jimmy Rollins!), teams are going to err on the side of shifting players who look like Matt Adams and Lucas Duda.

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Jose Abreu was the newest of a group of Cubans arriving in the Majors Leagues in the last couple of years. The most recent and notable of that group, Yoenis Cespedes and Yasiel Puig, made successful enough debuts that expectations were understandably high for the new kid on the block. Abreu certainly posted eye-popping stats in Cuba. And they were even better then the aforementioned pair. Even his translations were off the charts, but the difficulty in calculating those means we had to take those equivalents with a grain of salt. But now after the completion of the 2014 season, it is fair to say that any concerns scouts and fantasy owners may have had have officially been silenced.

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On 7/18, Madison Bumgarner changed his positioning on the mound. Eno noted it and Madison Bumgarner confirmed it. Bumgarner has worked to make his pitches (and I presume his release point) very similar through video and in front of a mirror “making sure he sets up in in the right places.”

Eno summed it up: “Bumgarner is ready to make the most of his old playbook. Throw lots of fastballs, cutters, and curves, all from the same release point, all with similar spin, and all exploding out of a slow, deliberate delivery.”

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Cardinals first baseman Matt Adams entered 2014 with some lofty expectations. In a part-time role in 2013, Adams displayed all the skills that pointed to him being a potentially elite option at first base. He hit for average, added plenty of power and walked at an acceptable rate. First base was a deep position, though, leading to the RotoGraphs experts ranking Adams 17th coming into the season. That proved to be perfect. Adams actually finished 17th among first baseman in the End of Season Rankings. There were plenty of reasons to be concerned about Adams entering 2014, so let’s take a look at what went wrong.

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Lucas Duda entered the 2014 season not ranked particularly high on anyone’s list, in large part due to his spotty track record, but also because of a logjam in the Mets outfield coupled with the presence of Ike Davis at first. Indeed, Duda came in ranked 37th overall at 1st base and in most formats was left until $1 dollar flyer time, last round bottom feed, or in many cases, to the waiver wire. And it turns out he would have provided a heck of a pickup if you took the early risk.

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Last week, I examined rookie pitchers Daniel Norris and Rafael Montero for my weekly Quick Looks piece. With both pitchers, they had several pitches which just got away from them. There was no way a hitter was going even think about swinging at them. These pitches put the pitcher constantly behind in the count. While I could use Zone% to determine the amount pitches in or out of the strike zone, I wanted to look a little further out of the zone to find pitches not even close to the strike zone and I ended up with, Way Out of the Zone Percentage (WOOZ%).

I have wanted to look into this subject for while after hearing Brian Bannister mention something in a Baseball Prospectus podcast. He said some pitchers can have problems with their grips as they transition from the higher seamed minor league baseball to the lower seamed MLB baseball. Specifically, he noted it hurt pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs and curve balls. Since starting Quick Looks, which concentrates on young, new pitchers, I have seen a ton of pitches not near the zone which may be caused by not having a good grip. I needed to find and solution and for now it is WOOZ%.

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On a weird level, there are certain baseball players I consider “my guys.” No real rhyme or reason to it. Of course the most known and poked at guy of mine is easily Andrew Cashner, but I also love Neil Walker, Xavier Avery (don’t ask) and of course Adam LaRoche. Read the rest of this entry »