After talking a bit with Eno Sarris about his pitch type benchmarks, we decided to change up the process a bit. Instead of taking the full average of all of the pitches thrown in a category, we limited the pool to only pitchers who had thrown 20 innings from 2011 to 2013. And we limited the number of pitches we counted to ones that had been thrown 50 times. Hopefully this takes out gimmick pitches and small sample anomalies, for the most part. We’re focusing now on regularly-thrown pitches from somewhat-established pitchers.

We also decided to take the median value within each pitch type. This is a better representation of what’s out there — the old way could have allowed the very excellent pitches to pull the benchmarks north of what could actually be considered an average pitch. We also decided to show you where the 40% benchmark was — the ‘good’ but not ‘above average’ pitches. There are a lot of pitches thrown here that are neither ‘show-me’ pitches nor are they ‘strong’ — think ‘useful.’

Eno will take a look at Matt Cain to bring this all into focus after the new table of benchmarks.

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As a rather big fan of Carlos Martinez, it was disappointing to see him relegated to bullpen duty to start the season. Fortunately, that created a bit of leeway to get him on the cheap once he became a starter. I grabbed him right when the Cardinals opted to go with him over Tim Cooney, who I also own in dynasty and think will be a good starter if he gets his triple-A homer issues under control, and I have enjoyed a solid couple of weeks out of Martinez.
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Agenda

1. A Fellow Brad
2. Daily DFS
3. Wednesday Picks
4. Table

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Brian McCann, whose batting average rests at .230 after a 3-for-5 performance on Monday night, is acutely aware of the quality of his performance at the dish this season. Despite the usual shortage of media attention on the New York Yankees, his feelings on the subject weren’t lost in the shuffle. He’s notorious for high expectations of himself, and he may have taken that to a new level this year, but he’s confident that he’ll turn it around. So is his manager. “He’ll figure it out,” Joe Girardi says.

But what if he doesn’t? McCann, 30, hasn’t hit .270 or better since 2011. His ISO is at .149 and his home run and doubles totals are at just 10, however. Fantasy owners drafted McCann with the expectation that 20 home runs were practically a given and that 25 or even 30 were possible, thanks to the move from spacious Turner Field to the new Yankee Stadium, complete with short right-field porch. It seemed like a good fit. What kind of effect does pressure on oneself have? What if he just stinks?

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The guys who write our daily posts on consecutive days have a tough gig. I write one per week and it’s hard enough to come up with new general thoughts on playing daily. But since I’m filling in for Mr. Jones, I’m having to come up with something for the second day in a row. To make things easy, I’ll piggyback on what I discussed yesterday which was using super cheap starting pitchers like Scott Carroll and hedging against them.

Carroll’s price was only $2,700 yesterday, and he delivered massive value by allowing just three base runners and zero earned runs over 6.2 innings with five strikeouts. He also got the win which pushed his point total for the day to 12.92. To put in terms of value, Carroll only cost you about $209 per fantasy point he got you. Getting that kind of value from any other spot on your roster is virtually impossible. The last time a hitter hit it big for me was Steve Pearce at the end of June when he hit two home runs and scored 17 points. At his price he cost you $461 per fantasy point. That’s still an excellent number, but it’s more than double what Carroll did yesterday.

More importantly, Pearce was one of 350 or so hitters to choose from that day and was the only one who hit two bombs. Sure, maybe only 100 were really capable of going yard twice, but that’s still impossible to predict. But Carroll was the only insanely cheap starter yesterday. Sure, the odds of him producing that kind of value weren’t great, but you knew one guy was capable of producing that kind of value, not one of a hundred you could choose from. When the only risk is how the player will perform and not which player will perform well, you have a much better chance of getting that insane value.

As for hedging, the more I think about it, the more it only truly makes sense with a super cheap starter. What I mean is it only makes sense if you’re only disappointed with your pitcher play if he doesn’t score at least three or so points. If the starter musters less than two points, it’s unlikely your hedge stack didn’t do anything for you. It doesn’t mean they went off and won you a GPP, but they likely return some value in that scenario. If you were hoping the value play pitcher would get you eight or nine points, it’s much easier to envision a scenario where he disappoints and a hedge stack also disappoints. So on those days when someone super cheap is out there, take a flier on them and hedge.

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Hard to imagine we’re one week away from the All-Star break, but alas, time flies when you’re having fun. As we continue our never-ending search for upside guys on the fantasy scrap heap, we turn our attention to two players who can help owners, one a multi-position infield tool, the other a sleeper outfielder at season’s outset who, halfway into the season, might just be making good on his preseason promise.
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Today’s Roto Riteup fills all your nooks and crannies.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jered Weaver leaves his start
2. Marco Scutaro’s rehab is progressing
3. Cole Gillespie to platoon in Toronto
4. Ricky Nolasco needs an MRI
5. The Frogmarched Five

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• Jenrry Mejia entered tonight’s game in the eighth inning for a four out save, and although he got four outs he also blew the one-run lead allowing a run and five baserunners. Before tonight’s outing Mejia had six consecutive scoreless appearances stretching over 6.2 innings. Mejia had a bumpy road in early June but has looked good of late and his job is still relatively secure.

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• On July 4th, Gerrit Cole was removed from his start with a sore lat. Here are his velocity readings from the game.

For his next start, look for a fastball velocity near 97 mph vs 93 mph which is where he ended the game at.

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I’ve been looking for an excuse to write about Mike Foltynewicz for awhile now, seeing as he’s an absolute flamethrower and everybody likes a prospect who can light up the radar gun. Unfortunately, that excuse has yet to surface, as Foltynewicz is having one of those seasons that is neither good nor bad enough to warrant a full-length write-up.

On the other hand, I didn’t come into the season with any plans to write about Foltynewicz’s Triple-A teammate Nick Tropeano. After occupying the No. 10 spot on Houston’s Top 15 Prospects list last year, Tropeano failed to make this year’s list. I suspect this has little to do with Tropeano’s own development and more to do with the addition of guys like Mark Appel and Josh Hader to the system, along with Vincent Velasquez’s return from Tommy John surgery, etc.

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