• Sergio Romo is out as closer and Jeremy Affeldt and Santiago Casilla will be part of the closing committee for now. Romo is still expected to pitch in some sort of setup role but Casilla and Affeldt should be receiving the save opportunities in the meantime. Romo hasn’t been as bad as his 5.17 ERA would suggest but even a 3.93 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA is worse than we expected from him. Romo’s never been a big velocity guy but his fastball and slider have actually been a little better than last year. Also, although Romo’s K% have fallen the last few years  his 14.2% SwStr% shows he can still get some whiffs, even if it hasn’t presented itself with his pedestrian K-rates this year. Barring a hidden injury I’d expect Romo to regain his job this summer but it’s Casilla and Affeldt for now. As a lefty/righty combo, gameflow should determine who sees the save on a given night. Both Affeldt (1.33 ) and Casilla (1.17) are owners of some shiny ERA’s and I would reccomend any team in need of saves to snag them if they’re available on the wire. Jean Machi is also having a nice year and could figure into some saves but he’s given up runs in his last two outings and Bochy mentioned Casilla and Affeldt as Romo’s replacements.

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Episode 135

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! FanGraphs’ own Jeff Zimmerman joins Nicholas Minnix to discuss the removal of Sergio Romo from the Giants’ closer role; the White Sox’s mess at closer; Ernesto Frieri and Jason Grilli; Taijuan Walker; Archie Bradley; Alex Colome; Dallas Beeler; the arrival of Mookie Betts; Alberto Callaspo; Didi Gregorius; the return of Bryce Harper; and Danny Santana’s chances to remain a fantasy contributor.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.

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There are a lot of different ways to evaluate bad offenses, which we’ve done a handful of times in this space of later. Simply grabbing a team’s wOBA against a certain handedness of pitcher is a quick and easy way. We’ve also looked at the average fantasy score of an opposing pitcher against that offense, as well as the distribution of those scores to get a better idea of the boom-or-bust nature of an offense.

Today, we’ll look at one other way to skin that cat, one that focuses entirely on the ultimate upside of a match-up.

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Ten years ago today the pop punk group Midtown released their third album titled “Forget What You Know.” I didn’t like it as much as their first two albums, “Save the World, Lose the Girl” and “Living Well is the Best Revenge” but I do like the track Is it me? Is it true? My favorite track by them will always be Like a Movie.

On today’s agenda:
1. Mookie Betts gets the call
2. Bryce Harper’s return?
3. Another quality start from Marcus Stroman
4. The daily five

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Agenda

1. Call of the Ocean
2. Daily DFS
3. Monday Picks
4. Table

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For the most part, I’m a positive person. At least I try to be. That’s why I usually focus on guys who are performing well. It just feels better to highlight someone’s success. Today, though, let’s talk about how bad Eric Stults has been this season.

He was decent in 2012; pretty good in 2013; and he’s been atrocious, so far, in 2014. His strikeouts are down some, but his walks are basically where they were last season. He’s never missed bats, so when he’s pitching well, he’s getting by off of weak contact, especially considering he’s a flyball pitcher. Well, he hasn’t been able to outrun a .323 babip this season after being fortunate enough to squeak past a .302 number last season. He’s stranding the same amount of runners, so what gives? Dingers. Lots of them.

Stults has allowed 15 home runs so far. He allowed 18 total last season. And we can’t exactly blame luck, because the majority of them can be blamed solely on poor location. Nine of the fifteen home runs Stults has given up have came off of fastballs. Eight of those fastballs have been at least belt high. When your fastball averages 87 mph, you can’t really miss up in the zone, unless you’re Chris Young (maybe?).

After roughly 290 innings in San Diego with a HR/FB rate around 7%, Stults’ rate is currently 14.6%. Will it stay that high? Maybe not, but I still like the Diamondbacks tonight. Paul Goldschmidt, anyone?

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Today is the 23rd anniversary of the film “The Naked Gun 2 1/2: The Smell of Fear” being released. The boxing knowledge clip seems like a throwaway, but later on it is relevant in the rescue scene.

On today’s agenda:
1. A big day from C.J. Cron
2. Thoughts on Michael Bourn
3. Dylan Bundy’s progress
4. The daily five

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Agenda

1. Vacation Proofing Your Roster
2. Daily DFS
3. Sunday Picks
4. Table

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Earlier this week, I suggested some names to buy and sell at third base and today I’ll turn my attention to the bump. There are actually a lot of pitchers who occupy my “sell” list, but a couple names jump out as prime candidates that you might want to jettison before they turn into pumpkins.

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First a look at the running totals through half of week 12:

21-13 record
3.95 ERA
7.4 K/9
2.7 K/BB
1.27 WHIP

Here’s a look at this week’s recs, with team wOBA in parentheses:

Danny Duffy – 11.4% ESPN/29% Y!/55% own, 36% start CBS – @MIN (.312), @CLE (.322) Read the rest of this entry »