If you play in a fantasy baseball league made up of family members, then there may well be no need to invest in either of these players. If, however, you play in a deep mixed league, you might want to consider the first of these entries. It’s even possible that the second one will play in one, eventually, but let’s not get that far ahead of the curve just yet.
It’s Chris Sale day. Jeff Sullivan had a post about him the other day. Spoiler: he’s fantastic. Here are some of the highlights from said piece:
For Sale, there are a few goals. One, he wants to keep himself healthy and able to pitch. Two, adding a better changeup should allow him to be effective longer within games. And three, Sale indicates that the changeup helps him keep his mechanics consistent. These things always sound good in theory, but Sale’s gone beyond theory, to the point where he’s genuinely executing. He’s dramatically cut down his slider usage. By our data, he’s increased his changeup usage by 12 percentage points, the biggest hike in baseball. According to Brooks, he’s actually second toHenderson Alvarez, but by the same source Alvarez used a changeup often in the past, so at least for Sale this is significant and new.
And Sale owns a career-high strikeout rate. He owns a career-low walk rate. Since he came off the disabled list, he’s posted a league-leading K% – BB% of 33%. Sale’s gotten better against both lefties and righties, and for an idea of the confidence he’s developed in his change.
…
For another glimpse at how Sale has kind of phased the slider out, here are his rates of strikeouts for which the slider was responsible:
2012: 58% strikeouts on slider
2013: 52%
2014: 22%Sale’s slider is still good. It’s still Chris Sale’s slider. This season it’s been knocked for all of three hits. But Sale hasn’t needed to rely on that pitch, as his changeup has been knocked for just 11 hits despite a large gain in frequency. The one Sale changeup hit for extra bases so far wasn’t even a bad changeup; it was a good changeup thrown to an amazing hitter. Otherwise, the changeup has gotten 20 strikeouts and ten singles. Righties have struck out against the changeup 17 times; they’ve struck out against the slider six times. Last season, those numbers were 34 and 79.
Mr. Sale will be going against the NL ERA leader, Tim Hudson, today; should be a dandy.
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Agenda
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When should we begin to buy a breakout? Indians outfielder Michael Brantley has played the part perfectly this year. After two seasons of solid performance, Brantley has emerged as an elite hitter at age-27. While that’s typically the time hitters come into their prime, Brantley’s surge comes as a surprise. The question, of course, is whether it’s legitimate. Has Brantley seen an inordinate amount of luck early, or have his skills progressed? Can’t it be both?
It’s a fishy edition of the deep league waiver wire and the first time I’m heading back to the National League after my last three posts recommended two American Leaguers. The Marlins have been aggressive about promoting prospects, which is great for fantasy leaguers in that they keep on providing us with a new shiny toy to analyze.
“In the future, I want all Americans to come together over breakfast and a fresh copy of the Roto Riteup” — Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther King, and Adolf Hitler at a joint speaking opportunity on the Moon.
On today’s agenda:
1. Andrew Heaney says “Hi”
2. Phil Hughes watch
3. A draft pick on the rise
4. Adam Wainwright’s elbow
5. The Furcular Five
• Koji Uehara had a day off after throwing on three consecutive days and Edward Mujica came on for his second save of the year. Mujica has had a largely forgettable year and after tonight’s perfect inning his ERA dropped all the way to 6.04. Although I’d still say Junichi Tazawa or Andrew Miller could see saves if Uehara were to suddenly get hurt, it’s worth noting that Mujica could be in the mix. Also worth noting, even on his off day, is Uehara’s outstanding season with a 33% K-BB% and only two earned runs in 31.2 innings pitched. Uehara has somehow managed to maybe be even better than his phenomenal 2013. Unreal.
Episode 130
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is now live! Eno Sarris and Nicholas Minnix discuss the Rays’ bullpen, Andrew Heaney, the Rockies’ rotation now that Juan Nicasio has been demoted, the Red Sox’s rotation with Felix Doubront and Clay Buchholz nearing returns but two youngsters pitching well, Jake Marisnick, and more, including a couple of requests: Wilin Rosario and Albert Pujols.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions so that we may answer them on our next episode.
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•Bronson Arroyo has been hurt for a while now.
Arroyo, 7-4 with a 4.08 ERA, said the right elbow has bothered him his past six starts but has gotten progressively worse.
“I can’t keep going out there and putting different inflammatory (medicines) in my body and beating myself down because I can just see the arm is going south,” he said. “If it would have stayed the same as it was five to six starts ago I could deal with the pain, but it continues to get more swollen. I’m waking up every day not being able to touch a ball for two to three days.”
I have noticed the problem for a while, especially with him near the top of the PAIN ranking (146 value the last time I ran it).
Bronson Arroyo says his elbow doesn’t hurt while his manager says it does. I am guessing it does. His fastball velocity is down 1.4 mph from 2013 and his Zone% is down over 10% points (56.1% to 45.6%). His current PAIN value, comparing 2013 to 2014, is at 154 (more than 100 means he has traits of an injured pitcher). I believe he is hurt and is just trying to throw through it which I don’t think will turn out well.
His velocity is down 2 mph and has been trending even lower. He hasn’t been able to throw strikes (Zone% down from 56% to 48%).
Despite extremely low ownership rates (5% Yahoo, 3.5% ESPN, 14% CBS), Luis Valbuena has performed well enough so far this season to make himself mixed-league relevant. The 28-year-old currently owns a .289/.390/.461 slash line through 61 games, and is showing no signs of slowing down. He’s fantasy-eligible at both second base and third base, yet fantasy owners would rather own, for example, Kelly Johnson (24% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 19% CBS), who is hitting .226/.299/.398 by comparison.
Maybe this is a product of the fact that Valbuena has never been good before. After all, even with his 210 plate-appearance sample from this season, he’s still just a .230/.313/.365 career hitter, with 33 homers and five steals in 1,710 PA. That doesn’t sound like a fantasy-relevant player to me. So what’s changed, and how sustainable is it?