Today marks the start of the NFL Draft, so I won’t be offended if you ignore the Roto Riteup in favor of last minute mock drafts.
On today’s agenda:
1. On Matt Wieters’ elbow
2. Chase Anderson likely to start Sunday
3. Scott Baker gets the call
4. Fun with arbitrary endpoints
5. The Friendly Five
• Giddy up, Jim Johnson owners. We’ve been imploring people to pick up the worm-burning righty if he’s been dropped in leagues, and the window to snag him has likely come to a close. One night after getting BABIPed around, the formerly deposed closer was called up on again, this time to polish off a 2-0 win versus the Mariners. He didn’t disappoint, retiring the side in order. Johnson’s 3.90 SIERA (coming into today) remains nothing to write home about, but he has gotten much better results since being removed from the closer role. Oakland also has a vested interest in the big money man finishing games as it could spike his trade value (should something happen and they go that route) while also keeping Ryan Cook from garnering too many saves (thereby driving up his arbitration cost). We can’t go green with this bullpen just yet, but assuming Johnson can look decent during his next few outings, he’ll be back on good standing fairly quickly.
This month’s updated rankings will be tiered alongside my favorite pizza styles. Now I’m probably opening myself up to a ton of criticism — even more than usual — because my tiers will be severely bias in favor of midwestern pizza. Sorry New York/Brooklyn style, I just don’t love your pizza like my Chicago deep dish. As always, this is a ranking based on my rest-of-season thoughts.
Chicago style deep dish
New month, new set of rankings, and still no surprise here at the top. As noted by the tall, handsome and brilliant Jeff Sullivan, Trout is striking out a bit more this season than what we’ve seen form him before. I’m not concerned with the uptick in strikeouts yet. He isn’t flailing at offerings outside of the zone as his 25.8% O-Swing% is in line with his career 24.6% mark. For a specific restaurant, Giordano’s is the place to go.
Read the rest of this entry »
Third base continues to be a source of frustration for many owners featuring injury (Ryan Zimmerman), ineffectiveness (Pablo Sandoval, Mike Moustakas) and sometimes injury and ineffectiveness (Chase Headley, David Freese), among others. Third base has also featured a bit of a coming out party from a few players which has been a magical salve for those of us hurting at the hot corner. But then again, it is just May, so I’m not particularly motivated to move the needle too quickly on shaking up the regular royalty when it comes to the tiers.
Last week I took a look at the three hitters who were not included in the initial Steamer preseason projections who are now projected to be above average fantasy players for the rest of the year. Today I want to look at the hitters who were included in the preseason projections who have seen their projected value increase the most one month into the season. I explained the methodology in the last post, but the short version is that each player is assigned a standardized score for each roto category (using z-scores) and when those are added up and an adjustment is made for positional scarcity we get a number called fantasy value above replacement (FVARz). Full disclosure: I’m using the numbers I calculated using the rest-of-season projections on April 29. I didn’t have time to re-run the numbers for this post, but that shouldn’t have a huge effect. Read the rest of this entry »
I’m a sucker for cool comeback stories – at least enough that I don’t readily dismiss fringe players, former top prospects and those with supposedly newfound abilities for one reason or another who are the subjects of them. I can’t help but wonder if they’ll help my fantasy teams, so I do some research and give them a chance to convince me.
Of course, most of them don’t, just as most fantasy owners had suspected. But they’re worthwhile exercises to me, nonetheless. The rate of return in terms of quantity is low, but the potential rate of return relative to the investment can be great.
Agenda
FanDuel has unleashed the World Fantasy Baseball Championship; a week-long, $5,000,000 celebration of Fantasy Baseball in Las Vegas! The WFBC has something for everyone, from the $250,000 single-entry championship, to the live $3,000,000 DFBC Final in Las Vegas.
Remember to use promocode FANGRAPHS to get your huge 100% deposit bonus up to $200. Click here to win your seat ticket.
Troy Tulowitzki has gotten a ton of press lately – rightfully so. He’s been fantastic. It’s almost hard to even see what other players have been up to thanks to the white hot blur in Colorado right now, but while looking away for a few seconds I noticed Brian Dozier. Dozier was pretty valuable last season in fantasy, and he’s on a quest to be even more valuable this season. The fact that he currently has 8 home runs and 11 steals draws most of the attention, but notice his walk rate. It’s a fantastic 16.3% – double his 2013 rate of 8.2%.
It feels like I’ve mentioned the Twins’ offense a lot in this space, but I can’t help it. I’m drawn to patience, and Dozier has had impeccable patience so far. His swing% sits at a paltry 35.4% – the seventh lowest rate in the league. He’s swinging less than he did last year, but his o-swing isn’t terribly different. It appears that Dozier is finally beginning to reap the rewards of his approach. He reaped them last year, although not nearly as much as he has so far in 2014.
ZiPS currently projects him to finish the year with 21 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and 100 runs. Those numbers – thanks to Kipnis’ injury and Cano’s slow start – might make him the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. Not bad a for mid-late round pick.
Turn $22 into a share of $100,000 Playing Daily Fantasy Baseball.
$100,000 MLB PickEm Big Score
Pick 8 MLB Players from 8 tiers — This Friday Enter for $22. Find out if you won at the end of the Indians @ Giants Game.
DraftStreet Pick’Em is the Easiest and Fastest Way to Win money playing Daily Fantasy Baseball. Make your first deposit today and get up to $200 Free.
The career transformation of Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon McCarthy has already been well documented. Concerned about his future in the majors, McCarthy opted to alter his pitch selection, which led to two fantastic seasons in Oakland. Just a few years removed from that, it’s starting to look like McCarthy has reinvented himself again.
Are you desperate for a second baseman or middle infielder in your deep league? Then you’ve come to the right place! I’ve got a pair of possible free agents ripe for the picking just for you.