Daily Fantasy Strategy — May 7 — For Draftstreet

Troy Tulowitzki has gotten a ton of press lately – rightfully so. He’s been fantastic. It’s almost hard to even see what other players have been up to thanks to the white hot blur in Colorado right now, but while looking away for a few seconds I noticed Brian Dozier. Dozier was pretty valuable last season in fantasy, and he’s on a quest to be even more valuable this season. The fact that he currently has 8 home runs and 11 steals draws most of the attention, but notice his walk rate. It’s a fantastic 16.3% – double his 2013 rate of 8.2%.

It feels like I’ve mentioned the Twins’ offense a lot in this space, but I can’t help it. I’m drawn to patience, and Dozier has had impeccable patience so far. His swing% sits at a paltry 35.4% – the seventh lowest rate in the league. He’s swinging less than he did last year, but his o-swing isn’t terribly different. It appears that Dozier is finally beginning to reap the rewards of his approach. He reaped them last year, although not nearly as much as he has so far in 2014.

ZiPS currently projects him to finish the year with 21 home runs, 27 stolen bases, and 100 runs. Those numbers – thanks to Kipnis’ injury and Cano’s slow start – might make him the best second baseman in fantasy baseball. Not bad a for mid-late round pick.

Probables Chart

There are a few showers forecasted today for certain areas, but none of them look like they’ll put any games in jeopardy. Vidal Nuno is facing the Angels, and the forecast is fantastic. John Danks hasn’t been very good, but he’s facing the Cubs so something has to give. The Rockies’ fantastic offense isn’t at home today, but they’re facing Colby Lewis and his homer issues in Arlington. And last, but not least, Bronson Arroyo’s career has been chiseled out by outperforming his FIP, but it appears as if those days may be over.

The Daily Five

Angels stack

Mike Trout – $9,134
Howie Kendrick – $7,949
C.J. Cron – $4,852

I’m not a huge Nuno fan, mainly because he has to rely mostly on command and because he’s susceptible to home runs. Using Cron is all about cost. Plugging him in allows you to spend the money required for Trout, and perhaps would even help you work Albert Pujols ($9,513) if you wanted to.

Aramis Ramirez – $6,181

Bronson. Arroyo. Miller. Park.

Tom Koehler – $14,117

I realize how often I pick Marlins’ pitchers. It isn’t by design, it has just worked out that way. Perhaps it’s because I’m a sucker for the staff’s collective velocity. Or maybe it’s because of their home ballpark. Either way, Koehler has been good so far, and he’s facing the Mets.

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