There’s nothing I love more than a cliche for the title of a post.

Today I want to take a look at a few of the players who have seen some of the biggest drops in ownership percentage on ESPN.com so far this season. Because we’ve only played a few games this year, determining whether I think these guys should be snatched off the wire comes down to whether I liked them in the preseason. I put hundreds of hours into preseason prep work, so I might as well milk it for all it’s worth while I can.

Dillon Gee — 7-Day % Change: -27.6%

There was a point where four of the five most recent articles that showed up on Gee’s player page were written by yours truly. I loved what he did in 2012 when he saw a big spike in swinging strike rate which pushed his strikeout rate comfortably above league average. He also had a solid ground ball rate just over 50%, and he limited walks. But his ERA was north of 4.00 thanks to a strand rate that was in the lowest quantile among pitchers with at least as many innings as Gee. I was all over the guy with solid strikeout, walk and groundball rates going into 2013.

Gee delivered in a way with a 3.62 ERA last year. But he didn’t do it like I wanted him to. His swinging strike rate and strikeout rate fell back below league average to where they had been prior to 2012. His groundball rate also fell significantly as well, but his walk rate did hold. The main reason he was able to post a sub-4.00 ERA was a reversal of strand rate fortune. His strand rate went from 68.9% to 77.9%. To repeat his 2013 ERA he’ll either have to regain the above average strikeout and groundball rates or get lucky again. The good rates of 2012 seem to be the exception and not the rule, and you can’t own a guy banking on strand rate. Leave him on the wire, and use him as a streamer if the right matchup comes along. Read the rest of this entry »

Agenda

1. It’s a long season
2. Another split day at DFS
3. Thin Thursday Cometh
4. The Factor Grid

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I kind of love and I kind of hate this time of year all at the same time. We have things called a Yangervis leading third basemen in WAR and we have things like Carlos Santana walking at a 30% clip. Small sample sizes may be the tools of the foolhardy, but that doesn’t mean they don’t produce a little bit of fun along the way. Take for instance the performance of Kyle Seager. No really, take it.

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Brad Johnson, an author here at Fangraphs that you’ve probably read numerous times, wrote a little bit about luck the other day. It’s definitely more prominent in daily fantasy than the standard roto setups that we all normally play. Daily fantasy is fun. We get to draft a new team every day, perhaps win a little money, and scoreboard watch. However, it can also be so, so maddening.

For example, one night last week I entered a tournament on Draftstreet and missed winning anywhere from $300-$500 (depending on my ultimate finish) by 1.5 points. Brad Miller gave me zilch, but it wasn’t his fault. The combination of the terrible playing surface in Oakland and the error in judgement made by the groundskeepers, probably cost me. But, on the bright side, at least my lineup construction got me close in the first place?

To echo Brad once more, you’ll likely have nights where you barely lose. You’ll have a few nights where you play matchups and definitely have the edge, but someone of the Kevin Correia ilk will toss a shutout and completely blow up your chances. That doesn’t mean you’re terrible at picking a lineup; you just got a bad beat. Keep pushing and playing the right matchups and you can definitely make some money. And hopefully we can help you do that.

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Padres pitcher Ian Kennedy is ready for a rebound. After just 11 innings, it’s starting to look like his move to San Diego will pay off. Kennedy opened the year as a late-round flyer in most fantasy leagues. After three years of consistent production in Arizona, everything seemed to fall apart for Kennedy last season. Kennedy not only walked more batters, but also saw his home run rate jump to obscene levels. This continued even after a mid-season trade to one of the largest parks in the game. When the dust settled, Kennedy’s ERA was a disappointing 4.91. Since he wasn’t an elite option before the drop-off, Kennedy became nothing more than late-round fodder. Based on what he’s shown thus far, it looks like the old Kennedy is back.

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It wasn’t a set plan to have an all-Astros edition of the deep league waiver wire. But judging by how many Astros players I own in Tout Wars (five), it’s clear that I think there’s some intrigue here. Heading into spring training, there was a plethora of first base/DH/outfield candidates, but those position battles have been somewhat sorted out at this point, leaving many of their players undervalued.

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While Wiers is off working through a hangover, I’m here on schedule to bring you a fresh edition of the Roto Riteup. It’s pairs nicely with turkey breakfast sandwich and some A Perfect Circle.

Today’s Agenda
1. Yordano Ventura makes me feel funny
2. Felix Doubront struggles
3. Who are you, and what have you done with Aaron Harang?
4. The Daily Five

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• With David Robertson heading to the DL, Shawn Kelley will be taking over closing duties in New York.  Kelley is effective and can generate lots of swings and misses but also gets many outs via the fly ball (only a 30.5% GB% in his career), which can obviously lead to occasional rough outings, fast. I’m not trying to scare owners away from Kelley but it’s important to not just check his K-Rates and quickly label him a great option. With that said, I would still run to pick up Kelley while Robertson remains on the shelf. I’ve been touting him in the early part of the season but Dellin Betances should be moving up the bullpen chain as well although I think the Yankees might go to Matt Thornton before him at this point. Still, Betances has looked impressive thus far, striking out five batters in three innings pitched with his high 90’s gas.

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Episode 105

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette and Eno Sarris talk about the candidates for the 2014 Tuffy Rhodes award, the Billy Hamilton concern-o-meter, the ever-changing closer situations, the Matt Moore situation, and some surprising starts from old veterans to start the season.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 38 min of joyous analysis.

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For the second time in two days, I’m going to build off of Mike Podhorzer’s quick hits about the most added fantasy players through the season’s first week. Hey, this is a shortstop beat, it’s week two, and he touched on two of the buzziest shortstop names going.

One of those names was the second most added fantasy piece last week, vaulting from five percent ownership to 31 percent in CBS leagues. It’s been slower in Yahoo formats, but Adeiny Hechavarria is up to 13 percent ownership there, too.

I’m asking you today to throw him back.
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