It was a mixed year for the Toronto Blue Jays outfield. Jose Bautista produced when healthy, but his season was cut short by a hip injury. Melky Cabrera played in just 88 games due to injuries and failed to live up to expectations. Colby Rasmus actually produced strong numbers despite a crazy-high strikeout rate. All three players will be looking for more in 2014, but all come with legitimate risks. Will any of the trio beat the odds this time around?
As you are no doubt keenly aware, Eno has been furiously posting the RotoGraphs rankers’ position rankings over the past week. This is always an interesting and sometimes surprising exercise as I find players I didn’t think I liked ranked higher than the others, whereas guys I thoughts I liked are ranked lower. Trying to figure out why such was the case is the fun part. But rather than explain why each player I ranked differently was ranked at such spot (don’t worry, Pod’s Picks will soon be upon us!), I thought it would be helpful to explain the various general reasons a player is ranked dramatically differently than others rank that same player. Or, in simpler terms, what leads to a difference in ranking?
Episode 97
The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the Colorado Rockies and the Kansas City Royals as well as discuss player projections and how to value players in quirky league formats.
As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music Approximately 53 min of joyous analysis.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
In a poker tournament, the top 15 percent of participants usually land “in the money.” House games can be a little more communist, I played in an eight man tournament last weekend where the top three received some portion of the pot (third got less than money back after counting his three rebuys). In fantasy baseball, it’s common for only the top 16 to 25 percent of participants to receive a payout. While that’s more than your average poker tournament, it’s still a top heavy distribution.
Full disclosure: I am hoping against hope that my fellow fantasy writers here at RotoGraphs are correct. I need them to be, really, because I’m looking down the barrel of what could be another disappointing season for the Toronto Blue Jays, and a Brett Lawrie breakout could certainly make things more interesting and tolerable.
But I’m not so sure the consensus should be that Lawrie is a top-10 option at third base. The RotoGraphs consensus third base ranks had Lawrie eighth, with only Pod ranking him outside of the eight-nine range at 15th. He’s currently being selected 12th at the position in Yahoo drafts (where he also has second base eligibility).
As a reminder, Lawrie finished 2013 ranked 29th in value at the hot corner.
Read the rest of this entry »
While the Orioles are making headlines with signings of Ubaldo Jimenez and Nelson Cruz, it’s time to take a look at another aspect of the team in which they’ve made some changes. Gone is Jim Johnson, a two-time 50-save closer for the O’s and while they were all set to bring in free agent Grant Balfour, they were unhappy with the results of his physical and opted to fill the vacancy in-house. So let’s take a look at what Baltimore’s bullpen is looking like right now. Read the rest of this entry »
It certainly looks like he is in a decline phase. Last year was his least productive season on a per plate appearance rate and also in aggregate overall value. He didn’t reach 100 games played as he battled plantar fasciitis all season, he didn’t hit over 20 home runs, and he didn’t even hit .260.
Read the rest of this entry »
Last week over the course of two nights, the Second FanGraphs staff league held our annual auction. As always, I entered with a simple strategy – stay calm, nab the one or two big names you need, but mostly let the rest of the league cash out early, and clean up with sleepers and guys who slip through the cracks.
That didn’t work out so well this time. You can see the way the auction went here. If you scroll through far enough, you’ll see that those sleepers didn’t sleep and the guys falling through the cracks didn’t fall that far. An overabundance of caution led to moderate early prices and too much cash to spend later. So what’s an owner to do?
Is there a more fascinating rotation in fantasy than the one sported by the New York Yankees? All five projected starters carry compelling storylines into 2014, whether they’re attempting to stave off injury or prove themselves as capable big league hurlers as the team looks to return to postseason baseball.
There’s nothing wrong with being 33 years old, but the question for fantasy owners is how quickly CC Sabathia’s advancing years are diminishing his value. There’s plenty to be down about: the lefty last season posted the lowest WAR (2.7), highest batting average against (.267), ERA (4.78) and WHIP (1.37) of his 13-year career. Optimists might look at his 3.76 xFIP and believe he was cheated a bit on the 27 home runs he allowed, and less home runs would improve his strand rate, and a better strand rate would help bring down his ERA. But what’s most alarming to fantasy owners is the drop in strikeouts; his 19.3 percent strikeout rate was his lowest since 2004, his whiff rate dropped nearly two percentage points from 2012 and his average fastball velocity declined for the third straight season.
The Pod Projection train has left the station and is gaining momentum, as today brings another forecast for your reading pleasure. The young Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha dazzled over nine starts and 64.2 innings in his rookie debut and then impressed on the biggest stage in the playoffs, posting a 2.64 ERA in five starts. Not surprisingly, he is quite the target of many a fantasy player, as he’s currently the 17th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, going 92nd overall. Could he possibly deliver that kind of value to his owners?