No team gave up as many runs in the seventh inning or later last postseason, and so one offseason goal was clear for the Tigers: improve the bullpen. So the Tigers started at the back end of the bullpen and are finalizing the details for a two-year contract with Joe Nathan. They had the money because of recent cost-saving measures, and they had the need, and the contract isn’t long. What’s the prognosis for Nathan over the next two years?

Read the rest of this entry »

Since 2009, Gerardo Parra has been locked into a pseudo-backup role with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Last season was Parra’s first opportunity to play everyday and that only came due to a preponderance of injuries. Still, he posted $7 of value and is a good bet to be similarly valuable in the future. With Adam Eaton and Cody Ross healthy once again, Matt Davidson threatening to push Martin Prado to the outfield, and A.J. Pollock also in the mix for reps, Parra will likely find himself back in his familiar platoon role.

Read the rest of this entry »

The holidays are upon us, and while there is plenty of serious business to discuss, it’s also time to sit back, relax, and have some fun. So this week I thought I would try to answer (or at least glance at) a question I’ve wondered for years – what would happen if Major League Baseball scored the AL and NL like fantasy leagues instead of looking at something silly like “winning percentage?”

The question you are asking yourself right now is probably, “He has really wondered this for years?!” but once you get over your shock and my nerdiness, you’ll want to know why I have been wondering this. When we created ottoneu, one of the things we wanted to do was closely replicate the job of a real GM and that meant, in part, picking a scoring system that reflected what really drives teams to win games or lose them. But, of course, we are still just counting stats. If a player only hits his HR in blow outs, you as a fantasy owner do not care, and the chances are this has little or nothing to do with the player’s value, but it certainly could impact his teams post-season chances. So what happens if we just look at the numbers put up by the real teams?

Read the rest of this entry »

While most of the fantasy community is hip-deep in the football playoffs (myself included), there is still nothing more exciting for me than the MLB hot stove. Baseball has always been my first love and given the necessary preparation for keeper leagues, following the latest free agent movement and rumors is really what I love most about the winter. It doesn’t matter if it’s a marquee name or just a role-player hoping to establish a bigger role for himself with a new club, I track it all. If a player is moving into a favorable situation, I’m going to want to see if he’s worth drafting. If he’s headed somewhere that I think will be a detriment to his game, I’ll cross him off my draft lists. And with the latest rumors saying that Carlos Beltran is going to end up with the Yankees, I’m getting ready to bump him up on my draft sheets the moment he signs on the dotted line. Read the rest of this entry »

Colby Rasmus had somewhat of a re-breakout in 2013.

Having followed up a tantalizing 2010 sophomore season with a pair of disappointing campaigns, Rasmus produced a nearly-five win season in just 118 games, nearing career highs in home runs (22) and runs batted in (66).

Disabled list stints in August (abdominal strain) and September (ball to the face) kept him from being perhaps a top-30 outfielder. Instead, he ranked 55th and enters 2014 as somewhat of a question mark.
Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last two years, my fellow FanGraphs authors have discussed the effects of aging on player performance and shared various pretty curves. Eno Sarris introduced some hitter aging curves for both batted ball type distribution and isolated power. Then Bill Petti looked at the various plate discipline metrics. The one skill missing thus far has been speed.

Read the rest of this entry »

Obviously, the tools are there. Dexter Fowler can run, can hit with pop, has a good eye at the plate, and is a good defender. Those tools have made him an above-average regular by ‘real baseball’ measures and a top-sixty outfielder, worth more than seven bucks last year by our retrospective fantasy value measures.

And yet, his owners are probably getting tired of continually being teased by upside beyond. Just google his name and ‘breakout’ and see how many results you get, spread over the last three years.

Read the rest of this entry »

Even though there has been no import injury news, some small bits of information has populated the interwebs.  Today’s article is just a small update on the progress of some players.

• The Orioles think Manny Machado will be ready for opening day.

Orioles third baseman Manny Machado continues to progress favorably in rehab from left knee surgery, and manager Buck Showalter said Wednesday the expectation is Machado will be ready for Opening Day.
“We put a real safe date on it,” Showalter said of Machado’s timetable, which initially was estimated at six months for a mid-April return. “I think he’s got a real chance to make the start of the season. [He] needs to play in [spring] games by March 15 to make the season.”

I will wait-and-see with him. It will be nice to see him run and hit before calling him 100%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Although the RotoGraphs team recapped the third base position a few weeks ago, Todd Frazier didn’t receive his due attention, so it seemed prudent to give him ample space in our discussion on outfielders — the only other position he played last season. The New Jersey native was a popular sleeper pick after posting a solid .354 wOBA (8th amongst third basemen with 400+ PA) with 19 home runs and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012.

Unfortunately, Frazier delivered a disappointing sophomore campaign this year. His batting average plummeted to a mere .234, his wOBA dropped to .319, and his home run numbers remained stagnant despite roughly 150 more plate appearances. Barely checking in ahead of D.J. LeMahieu, Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, the 27-year-old ranked as the 17th-best fantasy third baseman. That’s a far cry from where many fantasy owners expected him to be ranked at the end of the season.

Some fantasy analysts have pointed to the severe drop in BABIP from .316 to .269 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, as the main reason for Frazier’s decreased value. They’ve pointed to the increased walk rate, the decreased strikeout rate, the decreased swinging-strike rate and even to the fact that he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2013. All good things, certainly, but I’m not ready to jump aboard the BABIP train and simply explain away his struggles this year to mere random variation. That’s too simplistic and misses a key reason why his power and batting average dropped this season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since 2008, Michael Bourn has been a reliable stolen base threat, but those days may be coming to a close. Bourn managed to provide nearly $8 of value last season,  but he did so with a career low total in stolen bases.

The 23 bags he swiped last season is part of a two year decline for Bourn. If we select the data to be as alarming as possible, he’s declined from 61 steals in 2011, to 42 in 2012, to last season’s 23 steal total. It seems we can expect four stolen bases in 2014.

Read the rest of this entry »