Justin Upton finished the season as the 21st most valuable outfielder according to our valuations. But I can almost guarantee that he’ll be drafted higher than 21st among outfielders next year. The main reason I’m so confident in that is because he finished 2012 as the 19th most valuable outfielder according to ESPN’s player rater, and he was drafted as the seventh outfielder on average on that site in 2013. Someone in your league is sure to believe he has another 2009 or 2011 in him.

Despite finishing consecutive seasons as the 20th best outfielder give or take a spot, Upton got there in very different ways. The long and short of it is that last year his batting average fell in large part due to a big increase in his strikeout rate, his steal total fell almost 60% from where it sat in the previous four years, and a 50 point jump in ISO boosted his homer total and offset the decline in the other areas. Is there a chance those factors change and Upton realizes his upside? Or should you assume the sum of all the parts will continue to equal the 20th best outfielder one way or another? Read the rest of this entry »

It seems like every time I bring up how excited I am about Jonathan Gray as a fantasy prospect, the first thing I hear in response is some variation of, “Yeah, but what about Coors Field?” It’s a fair question, to be certain. While the Coors Field effect has been lessened since the installation of the humidor, it is still a very hitter-friendly park. Part of the explanation for this is that the thin air in Denver decreases the spin on breaking balls, thus making them easier to square up as a hitter.

But let’s back up a bit and talk about Jonathan Gray first, shall we? I live in Oklahoma, and was lucky enough to see the No. 3-overall pick pitch more times than I could count when he was in college at the University of Oklahoma. First and foremost, Gray has one of the absolute best fastballs in the minors right now. He has huge velocity, sitting comfortably in the 95-97 mph range and dialing up triple-digits when he reaches back for a little more. The pitch has explosive late arm-side movement as well, making it incredibly difficult to barrel up for right-handed hitters. I have seen him crank it up all the way to 101 mph, and it isn’t unusual at all to see him unleash one in the upper-90s in the 9th inning. When scouts talk about an 80-grade pitch, this is what they’re talking about.

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Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte shattered expectations in 2013. The 24-year-old had a breakout season, hitting .280/.343/.441, and posting a .344 wOBA. Marte’s contributions went beyond his slash line, as he also stole 41 bases despite missing 27 regular season games with a hand injury. Due to his emergence, Marte is sure to see his fantasy stock soar in the coming months. While what he did last season was impressive, expecting a repeat would be foolish.

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A couple days ago, the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies swapped players. Brandon Barnes will now head to Colorado to help fill Dexter Fowler’s shoes. If he’s used predictably, then he could be useful to fantasy owners.

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Fantasy owners often cite the mantra “you can’t win your league in the first round, but you could lose it”. It reinforces the notion of sticking with the safety of an established veteran, rather than reaching for the sky with a youngster that possesses tons of upside. While Matt Holliday is no longer worthy of first round consideration, he’s exactly the type of player that helps you avoid losing your league. He was once again a strong contributor, earning nearly $26 and ranking 10th in value among outfielders.

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For a relatively uncelebrated player, Nick Swisher has been reliably good for a very long time. Since 2006, he’s played 145 or more games per season, hit over 20 home runs, and walked enough to make the Greek God of Walks feel like a second rate deity.  He slipped a bit in 2013, checking in at $7 of value, but there are a few reasons to expect a bounce back campaign in 2014.

Swisher dealt with a shoulder injury that he suffered early in the season and re-aggravated in June. That, combined with age, probably explains his career low .177 isolated power. There is a dearth of information on the internet about the shoulder injury, so it’s unclear if it’s fully healed or something that could continue to dog him in future seasons. Swisher recently turned 33-years-old, so he is entering the portion of his career where his durability could become compromised.

Aside from the shoulder issue, Swisher makes a very boring study. The available data fail to suggest any noteworthy changes in his profile. His fly ball distance remained a robust 295 feet in 2013 (294 in 2012), which ranked him between Evan Longoria and Anthony Rizzo for the 40th best distance. His fly ball, ground ball, and line drive rates have been practically unchanged for the past three seasons. He is whiffing slightly more frequently these last two seasons, but his strikeout rate was only slightly higher than his career averages. Other avenues of analysis like PITCHf/x failed to reveal any new information.

Steamer projects a useful .255/.353/.446 line with 24 home runs, 82 runs, and 87 RBI. The runs scored and RBI totals depend on how the Indians use Swisher. With his healthy on base and slugging percentages, he could score more frequently at the top of the lineup or drive in more runs if batting in the middle of the order. He was frequently used as the second hitter in 2013, so expect his output to skew more towards runs scored.

There is a saying in fantasy baseball – “boring players win championships.” The unspoken understanding is that reliable veterans are a market inefficiency. Most owners spend so much time getting excited about high risk, high reward players like Eric Young Jr. that they ignore safe plays like Swisher. This could result in Swisher being undervalued, especially in auction leagues.

Owners may also see Swisher’s modest decline in 2013 and expect additional decline in 2014. While they could be correct, knowing he played most of the season with an injury has me buying Steamer’s projection for a mild bounce back.

Swisher won’t be anybody’s top target in the outfield, but he should be watched closely. His use case reminds me of Jayson Werth and Hunter Pence last season. In my home league, I was able to roster both players for $15 combined and according to Zach Sanders, they were worth $54. Swisher probably doesn’t have that much upside because he doesn’t steal bases, but he could provide up to $20 of value on a $7 bid. Don’t sleep on him.

While Nelson Cruz might be one of the least favorite of available free agents among nerd faces, it’s hard to ignore what he does rather consistently for your fantasy squad — and that’s hit home runs and drive in runs all while hitting for a decent average. The often injured (or suspended as it were) outfielder has posted an ISO below .240 just once in the last five seasons and has yet to hit below .260 as a major league regular. Cruz has hit 135 home runs in the past five years and he’s really only played a full season once.

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When the New York Yankees signed free agent outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury to a ridiculous seven-year, $153M contract, not only did they likely say adios to second baseman Robinson Cano, but they also reiterated the fact that they simply don’t trust Brett Gardner enough to be their regular center fielder or leadoff hitter. Is he not capable of playing well defensively out there? Can he not get on-base at a reasonable rate? Is he not fast enough to steal bases and set the table properly for the heart of the order? Apparently not, if the Yankees continue to push him aside for every over-priced marquee name that looks their way. Forget about the fact that last season, his first real opportunity to play center field and bat leadoff, he posted a .271/.344/.412 slash line and played a strong defensive game. In Yankee-land, that’s role-player material, at best, worthy of move to left field and trip back to the bottom of the order.

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Well, that kind of came out of left field. I guess, more aptly, center field? Word broke last night the guy ranked 8th in Zach Sanders‘ end-of-season outfielder rankings is headed south on I-95. That’s right, Jacoby Ellsbury is following Johnny Damon’s footsteps and leaving the Red Sox for the Bronx immediately after winning a World Series.

To figure out what this means for 2014, we need to look back a bit at 2013. There are three areas Ellsbury derived positive value from this year: runs, batting average, and, of course, stolen bases. He did provide net positive value in RBIs and home runs (accounting for positional scarcity), but they were far and away his two least important categories. Runs and RBIs are a function of opportunity, and we know what your lineup does around you (and where you are within your lineup) is the main driver. We won’t focus on those. However, we can break down the other three aspects of Ellsbury’s fantasy game and write a 2013/2014 narrative.

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Ever since Eric Young stole 87 bases in 118 attempts in Single-A back in 2006 with the Rockies organization, fantasy owners have been salivating over his fantasy prospects. With respectable strikeout rates and consistently high BABIP marks coupled with playing half his future home games in offense-inflating Coors Field, we simply couldn’t wait for his first opportunity at a full-time job. Unfortunately, that never really came to pass. After being shuffled between second base and the outfield throughout his career, Young finally recorded more than 200 at-bats in a season and earned a smidge over $9 in fantasy value, good for 49th among outfielders.

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