Coors Field Won’t Scare Jonathan Gray
It seems like every time I bring up how excited I am about Jonathan Gray as a fantasy prospect, the first thing I hear in response is some variation of, “Yeah, but what about Coors Field?” It’s a fair question, to be certain. While the Coors Field effect has been lessened since the installation of the humidor, it is still a very hitter-friendly park. Part of the explanation for this is that the thin air in Denver decreases the spin on breaking balls, thus making them easier to square up as a hitter.
But let’s back up a bit and talk about Jonathan Gray first, shall we? I live in Oklahoma, and was lucky enough to see the No. 3-overall pick pitch more times than I could count when he was in college at the University of Oklahoma. First and foremost, Gray has one of the absolute best fastballs in the minors right now. He has huge velocity, sitting comfortably in the 95-97 mph range and dialing up triple-digits when he reaches back for a little more. The pitch has explosive late arm-side movement as well, making it incredibly difficult to barrel up for right-handed hitters. I have seen him crank it up all the way to 101 mph, and it isn’t unusual at all to see him unleash one in the upper-90s in the 9th inning. When scouts talk about an 80-grade pitch, this is what they’re talking about.
I don’t have a problem putting an 80 grade on Gray’s fastball, much like I’m not afraid to label his slider as a 65/70 offering. Simply put, it’s the dominant out pitch that major-league pitchers need to rack up the strikeouts. The break on his slider is so sharp and so late that it is absolutely devastating, especially to right-handed hitters. So now we’re talking about a guy with two plus-plus pitches, and pitchers like that don’t come around every day.
The biggest knock on Gray is that his change-up isn’t yet good enough to be a consistent major-league offering, and I completely agree. Even against college competition, it was just okay, and he’ll likely need to develop his change into at least an average pitch to be an elite major-league starter. From what I’ve seen, it’s not there yet, but that certainly doesn’t mean it won’t be a major-league offering in due time.
At 6’4″, 255 pounds, Gray isn’t what you’d call particularly athletic, but his body is the type that can absorb high pitch counts and log 200+ innings on a regular basis. Last season, he hurled 166 innings between college and the minors. As for his performance, it was about what one would expect. In four starts in the Rookie-level Pioneer League and five in the High-A Cal League, two of the minors’ most hitter-friendly leagues, he compiled a 1.93 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP and a 51:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37.1 innings.
I believe that within the next few years, Gray could be one of the top pitchers in baseball, even accounting for the fact that he’ll be making half of his starts at Coors. My reasoning for this is that, of all off-speed pitches, sliders are the least-affected by the thin air in Colorado. This study by Dan Rozenson of Baseball Prospectus shows that the lateral movement of sliders isn’t affected nearly as much at Coors Field as the downward spin on curveballs, sinkers and change-ups. The Rockies’ plan of signing sinkerballers like Mike Hampton was actually one of the worst strategies they could have taken because the downward motion of the pitch is lessened in the thin air.
The type of pitcher who can excel in this atmosphere is one with a power fastball/slider combo, which is exactly what Jonathan Gray has to offer. 100+ mph plays anywhere, and his wipeout slider shouldn’t suffer too much in his home ballpark. On a mental level, this gives Gray the advantage of not having to significantly alter his approach to pitching at home as opposed to on the road, which should give his development at the major-league level a boost over previous Rockies pitching prospects. Physically, it gives him the chance to be a dominating force in the majors for years to come, regardless of park effects.
In many dynasty leagues, owners will be afraid to draft Gray as highly as he should be simply because of the team he plays for. I will not be one of those owners, and neither should you.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Even assuming that Gray’s fastball and slider will play well in Coors Field, won’t the altitude affect his average-at-best change-up, leaving him without an effective third pitch?
I haven’t seen him pitch, but if he’s throwing a straight change then it shouldn’t make much of a difference. He would only be really effected by it if he relies on a good amount of sink to make the pitch effective, but if it has some run to it similar to his fastball and is ~10 MPH slower, then it should be fine.
His change does indeed have some arm-side run that causes it to tail away from lefties when he gets on top of it. It is very inconsistent at present, but all he really needs to do is develop it into a show-me pitch; the fastball and slider will carry him if the change is “good enough.” It’s presently a 30/35 offering. If he can bump that up one grade to 40/45, I think that would suffice.
I think that all depends on his development of the pitch.
I’m no engineer/physicist, but I would imagine thinner air would cause a relative *increase* on the spin on the breaking ball, due to the lessening of friction. The effect of that breaking ball would be decreased, since it depends on the effect of said friction.
You might be right about this. The thin air decreases “spin deflection,” which might actually mean that it increases the spin, as you pointed out. Hmm. I’m certainly not a physicist either. Hopefully someone who knows the definitive answer to this comes along and comments. Whichever the case may be, the end result is the same: Breaking balls lose movement.
I’ll add to this with the caveat that I lack physics training as well, but I’ve had it explained to me that the thin air certainly reduces how much a ball spins (in terms of a curve getting downward movement). In other words, thicker air gives the ball something to ‘grab on to’, increasing friction, and thus the amount of spin and movement the ball accumulates on its way to the plate. It’s the same reason that knucklers, I think, have a tougher time at Coors than in places where the atmosphere alters the path of the ball more after the pitch is releases. It’s also a reason why pitching with the wind in your face is actually preferable sometimes, in terms of getting movement on a pitch, even though when a hitter gets under it, it travels further.
The Magnus effect actually works via air pressure/turbulence not friction. More akin to the “lift” of an airfoil – except that the “lift” is rotational (and not necessarily up).
Lower ambient air pressure (and the normal air pressure in Denver is lower than the lowest air pressure ever recorded at sea level which was inside the eyewall of a 1000 mile wide typhoon) means a given amount of spin produces less movement.
Is he an average FB pitcher, or?
I’ve spent time talking to pitchers (not current MLB but others) up here. Everything I’ve heard is convincing me that success at altitude is less related to the specific plus-plus’itude of specific pitches (altitude will mess them all up and downgrade them all to average) – and far more to how many pitches can a pitcher rely on in a given situation. The real advantage that batters have here is the ability to simply watch what the pitches do – and wait for the right one. The more they see a particular pitch, the faster they can key in on it.
Ubaldo was the perfect (and only) example of how a high-heat pitcher can claw this advantage back. He threw his four-seam a lot – but that was never his strikeout pitch. It was there to set a rushed tempo so his other pitches (changeup/slider in 2008/9 and an added 2seam/sinker for 2010) could work better.
Unfortunately for Ubaldo and the Rockies, the team doesn’t (I don’t think) get that the real unfixable downside of altitude is probably a lower season IP expectation for pitchers. The effect on breaking balls and movement means that pitchers are gonna be tempted to “try harder” – to impart “just a bit more” spin. Even if they don’t realize they are doing that, they probably are. And I suspect that pitchers who aim to “miss bats” are even more susceptible. What that means is that 200 IP at Coors may have the same effect on ligaments/tendons (or fatigue-based mechanical inconsistency) as 250 IP elsewhere.
Wow, thanks for the insight, both on this and on the spin issue. Perhaps this explains all the tinkering they’ve done with six- and four-man rotations recently? Based on your analysis, they might just be the perfect team for that type of strategy…they just don’t have the arms to do it successfully.
If you had the first pick in a Dynasty League prospect draft (2013 draftees and international free agents) would you take Bryant or Gray?
I would definitely draft Gray. He has a higher floor/ceiling. If you league includes overseas picks though, you have to go with Tanaka.
Like Jfree said, the movement on breaking pitches is due to a low pressure zone developing on a side of the ball as it spins- which effectively “pulls” the ball that direction (aircraft are “pulled” into the air in the same fashion), the lessening of the magnus effect at altitude reduces the break of the pitch.
I completely agree with the premise that a hard fastball/slider combo is optimal, and as a rockies fan I think the groundball-inducing, pitch-to-contact concept is fundamentally flawed because the moment the batter makes contact there are many potential outcomes. Someone who can miss bats, but relies more on FB/SL/CH and less on big breaking pitches seems to be a better way to go.